545
FXUS64 KLZK 080853
AFDLZK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Little Rock AR
353 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Isolated to scattered convection continuing early this morning over
central/east central sections of the CWA along the I-40 corridor
east of Little Rock. These storms had a history of large
hail...damaging winds...and even a tornado earlier in the night back
towards Hot Springs. Expect the threat for SVR Wx with this
convection to continue for the next hr or two...with mainly damaging
winds and some large hail possible. Cannot completely rule out any
additional tornadoes...but should be brief if they develop.

Once this morning convection moves off/dissipates...most areas
should be mainly dry into the early afternoon hrs...with maybe some
patchy SHRA/isolated TSRA. This will change by late this afternoon
and mainly this evening as a line of convection fires along/ahead of
a SE moving cold front. While convection will still be possible
earlier ahead of the front...a capping inversion should keep most of
this at bay.

SVR TSRA will become likely with the afternoon/evening convection as
it moves SE through the state...due to high forecast ML CAPE of 3k
to over 4k J/kg...and impressive SHR . All SVR hazards will be
possible...even a few tornadoes as 0-3 and 0-1 SRH of over 200
m2/s2. Very large hail will be the primary threat however...with
larger than golf balls probable. Winds over 70 mph will also be
possible.

Expect the convection to move SE of the CWA by around sunrise Thu
morning...with a much calmer day expected for Thu. Some linger
precip will still be possible across SRN AR Thu afternoon/evening.
Most other areas will remain dry...with much drier air moving into
the state.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 351 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Calmer conditions are expected through the upcoming weekend with
unsettled weather set to return early Monday morning into Tuesday.

On Friday, NW upper flow will replace zonal flow over the nations
mid-section. This will allow surface high pressure to move towards
the state from the Plains. Drier and cooler air will advect into the
region with the approach of high pressure.

Going through the weekend, modest upper level ridging will move into
the Plains/MS Valley. This should bring nice, drier and cooler,
weather to AR as high pressure settles in overhead.

The upper ridge axis and surface high will begin to depart the
region to the E late Sunday. Surface winds will switch back to the S
and PoP chances will return by Monday morning into Tuesday as a new
upper trough moves across the region.

The warmest day during the period should be Thursday, with highs
topping out in the mid 70s to mid 80s. Not to surprising the coolest
day is expected to be Friday, with high temperatures mainly in the
70s. A slow warming trend will ensue through the weekend into
Tuesday. Low temperatures will be refreshing, with readings mainly
in the 50s most mornings, especially Friday morning and beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Batesville AR     84  62  82  55 /  40  80  10  10
Camden AR         87  67  86  58 /  10  60  20  30
Harrison AR       82  54  76  51 /  40  70  10   0
Hot Springs AR    85  63  84  57 /  30  80  20  20
Little Rock   AR  87  67  84  59 /  40  70  10  10
Monticello AR     89  69  87  62 /  10  50  20  30
Mount Ida AR      84  62  84  56 /  40  80  20  10
Mountain Home AR  82  55  78  52 /  40  60   0   0
Newport AR        84  63  82  56 /  40  80  10  10
Pine Bluff AR     87  68  84  60 /  10  60  10  20
Russellville AR   85  60  84  55 /  40  70  10  10
Searcy AR         84  63  83  56 /  40  90  10  10
Stuttgart AR      86  67  83  60 /  30  70  10  20

&&

.LZK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...62
LONG TERM....70