970
FXUS64 KMAF 181630
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1130 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday afternoon)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Major changes begin today in the form of summer heat! Mid level
ridging has quickly built in across the region as surface winds veer
to the southwest. This combination will bring us the hottest
conditions we have seen so far this year. Mid level temperatures
increase substantially this afternoon to around 28C-31C. Deep mixing
will send highs soaring nearly 20 degrees over yesterday and into
the upper 90s to near 100 in the lower elevations. The "cool" spots
will remain in the mountains where highs will stay in the 80s. After
a mild night even hotter conditions arrive Sunday as southwest winds
increase and an intense LLTR develops over the region. This will
lead to increased fire weather conditions, especially across the
higher terrain. Many locations will see 100 degrees with locations
along the Rio Grande possibly reaching close to 110. Heat Advisories
may be needed for portions of the area. Strong subsidence will keep
any precipitation chances at bay for the foreseeable future.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 220 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

Summer weather continues through early next week. Upper level
ridging builds in with a thermal ridge axis setting up over West
Texas and Southeast New Mexico, while strong southerly surface flow
helps usher in warmer weather. Sunny skies and 850mb temps around 32-
34C support highs in the 100s for most Monday, with 105+ along the
Trans Pecos and 110+ for the Rio Grande. Nighttime won`t bring much
of a reprieve as southerly winds and increasing cloud cover ahead of
an approaching trough limits radiational cooling, so temperatures
look to only fall to the upper 60s/low 70s. As the trough passes to
the north on Tuesday, the increase in warm westerly winds with a
tightening gradient should maintain one final day of above-normal
temperatures before a cold front pushes down on Wednesday. Don`t get
too excited as the "cool down" looks to still be slightly above
normal in the low to mid 90s. Unfortunately, we`ll be right back
to our warming trend for the end of the week with the departure
of the trough and upper level ridging building back in, so
above-normal highs look to hang around for the entirety of the
long term. Other than a possible storm or two across the far
eastern Permian Basin on Thursday, precipitation chances are nil
for this forecast package.

-Zuber

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1127 AM CDT Sat May 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail next 24 hours under ridging aloft.
Forecast soundings develop a few cu this afternoon invof
KMAF/KHOB, w/bases 8-9 kft AGL. Otherwise, CAVU conditions
expected. Return flow will veer to southwest and become gusty near
the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               99  68 100  69 /   0   0   0   0
Carlsbad                 98  63 100  62 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                  101  69 104  70 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton           100  69 104  68 /   0   0   0   0
Guadalupe Pass           89  65  90  64 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    96  62  98  61 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    92  54  95  55 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     97  67 101  68 /   0   0   0   0
Odessa                   97  69 101  69 /   0   0   0   0
Wink                    101  65 105  64 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...29
LONG TERM....88
AVIATION...44