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000
FXUS64 KMAF 230523
AFDMAF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Midland/Odessa TX
1223 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Tuesday night)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak, upper level ridge begins taking hold over the region tonight
and into Tuesday allowing for a quick warmup. Tuesday afternoon sees
temperatures reach into the upper 80s to low 90s for most locations.
The dryline takes shape between the TX/NM border and Midland-Odessa
stretching south towards Fort Stockton. Keeping only isolated PoPs
during the afternoon for Pecos County and across the eastern Permian
Basin counties. Forecast soundings to the east of the dryline show
steep lapse rates (7-8C/km+) and some available instability such
that hail and strong to severe winds will be the main threats with
the strongest storms. Storms will be isolated in nature and move to
the east into Tuesday evening. With low level moisture continuing to
linger over the plains and a breezy low level jet, Tuesday night
lows stay above normal in the upper 50s to low 60s with areas to the
west and in the higher elevations reaching into the low 50s.

-Stickney

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Apr 22 2024

A weak front will complicate the temperature forecast heading into
Wednesday. The NAM, which typically preforms better with a shallow
cool airmass brings the front into the Permian Basin Wednesday
morning before stalling it just west of Odessa. Other models don`t
even bring the front into our area. Will side more with the NAM
given how well it did with last weeks cold front. This means
slightly cooler temperatures in the 70s/80s over most of the Permian
Basin with 90s south and west.

Our next upper trough approaches Thursday with increasing SW flow
aloft. Low level moisture will push back west into the area setting
up a dryline. There is a low chance (20-30%) of storms along the
dryline Thursday night over the Permian Basin as this first trough
lift into the Plains. An isolated strong to severe storm is
possible. Drier conditions with continued above normal temperatures
are expect Friday before another fast-approaching trough arrives
Saturday. Depending on the timing and location of this trough we
could see strong winds and increasing fire weather concerns this
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1222 AM CDT Tue Apr 23 2024

VFR conditions are expected to continue through the TAF period.
Winds should generally remain southeasterly overnight. Western
terminals are expected to develop a westerly wind by tomorrow
afternoon.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Big Spring               58  88  65  87 /  10   0   0  10
Carlsbad                 55  90  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
Dryden                   61  89  67  90 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Stockton            58  92  64  92 /   0   0   0  10
Guadalupe Pass           58  82  59  80 /   0   0   0   0
Hobbs                    53  87  59  88 /   0   0   0   0
Marfa                    49  88  52  86 /   0   0   0   0
Midland Intl Airport     58  88  65  88 /   0   0   0  10
Odessa                   60  89  66  89 /   0   0   0  10
Wink                     58  92  64  93 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MAF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
NM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...93
LONG TERM....29
AVIATION...91