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000
ACUS11 KWNS 101401
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 101401
ALZ000-FLZ000-MSZ000-LAZ000-101530-

Mesoscale Discussion 0413
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0901 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Areas affected...southeast LA...southern MS...southern AL and the FL
Panhandle

Concerning...Tornado Watch 101...

Valid 101401Z - 101530Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 101 continues.

SUMMARY...A swath of damaging winds (60-80 mph) along the apex of a
fast moving bow echo will continue to moving into southern
Mississippi the next couple of hours. Tornadoes also will be
possible within the bowing line and in supercells ahead of the line.
A downstream watch will likely be need into parts of southern
Alabama and the Florida Panhandle int he next hour or so.

DISCUSSION...A damaging bow echo near the southern MS/LA border is
shifting east/northeast around 65-70 mph. While heating has been
limited this morning downstream of ongoing convection, mid to upper
60s F dewpoints are contributing to modest but sufficient
instability. Given the strongly sheared environment, and evidence of
a well-defined rear-inflow jet per KLCH VWP, the bow should maintain
organization and continue to produce severe caliber winds in the
60-80 mph range. Favorable low-level shear orthogonal to the bowing
segment also will support a mesovortex tornado risk.

An additional cluster of convection, including some supercells,
ahead of the line across far southern MS/southeast LA will also pose
a risk for damaging gusts and tornadoes. This activity will continue
to lift north/northeast and eventually merge with the surging bow.
This may increase tornado potential as mergers occur.

Downstream from Tornado Watch 101 into southern AL and the western
FL Panhandle, boundary-layer moisture remains more modest. However,
mid-to-upper 60s F dewpoints near the coast should continue to
spread northward with time and additional destabilization is
expected over the next few hours. The severe risk should gradually
increase across this region, with a damaging wind and tornado risk
expected from late morning into the afternoon. A downstream watch
will likely be needed within the next hour or so.

..Leitman.. 04/10/2024

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...LIX...LCH...

LAT...LON   31309153 32028920 32158724 31868614 31218598 30648600
            30348612 30138676 29758876 29619021 29609094 29779166
            29999214 31309153