Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Issued by NWS Memphis, TN
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
981 FXUS64 KMEG 151725 AFDMEG Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Memphis TN 1225 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 ...New AVIATION... .SYNOPSIS... Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 Most of the Midsouth will be dry today. The exception is in west Tennessee near the Tennessee River where a few showers and thunderstorms cannot be ruled out. Rain and thunderstorms return to all of the Midsouth late Thursday and will continue Friday and likely Saturday. Sunday and Monday look dry. Temperatures will be near to slightly above normal today and tomorrow with slightly below normal readings Friday into Saturday. We will trend warmer Sunday into early next week with readings near 90 degrees possible Monday and Tuesday. && .DISCUSSION... (Today through Tuesday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 15 2024 An upper low and weak surface low over southern Illinois and Indiana are slowly moving off to the east resulting in less influence on the Midsouth. However, a few more showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near the Tennessee today before the lows move into east Kentucky. A shortwave ridge will build in behind the aforementioned lows on Thursday resulting in dry and warm conditions across most of the Midsouth. A few showers and thunderstorms may return to northeast Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel late tomorrow (Thursday) afternoon as a weak shortwave trough tries to impede on the west side of the shortwave ridge. Highs Thursday should be in the middle 80s. Meanwhile, Thursday a deep trough will dig over the Four-Corners Area setting up southwest flow across much of the Mississippi River Valley Thursday night into Friday. A cold front will usher in rain, thunderstorms and a slightly cooler airmass Friday. Expect highs in the middle 70s to low 80s Friday and Saturday. After Friday there are significant differences in models guidance. The GFS features another upper level low/surface low much like we have been dealing with the past couple of days. The ECMWF is faster with no significant surface or upper low features. As a result, Saturday`s forecast is uncertain. If the GFS is right, Saturday will feature rain and thunderstorms while the ECMWF is much drier. For now, we will just maintain chance to slight chance PoPs, highest near the Tennessee River. Widespread severe storms do not look likely, but the Storm Prediction Center does include most of the Midsouth in a Marginal risk on Friday. NBM probabilistic QPF guidance shows about a 20-25% chance of 1 inch or greater rainfall across most of West Tennessee, east Arkansas and the Missouri Bootheel today through Friday with about a 30-40% chance across north Mississippi. Expect a warming trend Sunday into next week. High temperatures Monday and Tuesday may approach 90 degrees across a large portion of the Midsouth. Tupelo, MS reached 90 degrees May 9th of this year, but the last time multiple climate sites in the Midsouth (Tupelo, MS, NWS Memphis, Memphis International, Jackson, TN and Jonesboro, AR) reached 90 degrees was around October 3rd of 2023. It`s been a good run, but it will likely end soon as we move into the 2nd half of May. NBM`s probabilistic max temperature guidance on Monday ranges from a highest reasonable temperature of 94 degrees to a lowest reasonable temperature of 84. We currently have 89 in the official forecast. Mostly dry conditions are expected Sunday and Monday. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 1225 PM CDT Wed May 15 2024 VFR CIGs will prevail through the period as shortwave ridging continues to build over the Mid-South. Shortly after sunset, winds are expected to go calm and/or variable at all sites. This, combined with mostly clear skies, will encourage fog development at MKL and TUP by 09Z. Vsbys should quickly improve after sunrise Thursday. ANS && .MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. MO...None. MS...None. TN...None. && $$ PUBLIC FORECAST...JDS AVIATION...ANS