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000
FXUS62 KMFL 211131
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
731 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

For the remainder of the weekend, the prevailing mid-level
atmospheric pattern over South Florida will gradually weaken as a
deepening trough moves southeastward from the Plains into the
Southeast. Simultaneously, high-pressure systems at the surface
will shift eastward into the Atlantic, while a frontal boundary
remains stationary over the Gulf Coast States and edges
southeastward, expected to pass through Northern Florida tonight
and into Sunday. This movement will alter the wind direction,
transitioning from southeasterly to more south to southwesterly
today. Moisture influx during this period may lead to isolated
showers and possibly a thunderstorm, especially where sea breezes
converge across interior regions this afternoon and again on
Sunday afternoon. However, due to limited support from upper
levels, this convection is likely to be brief and shallow.
Temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and lower 90s across
most areas.

Models are consistent in predicting the arrival of a frontal
boundary on Monday, likely reaching South Florida by late
afternoon or evening. This front is expected to lack strong
dynamic support as its parent trough moves across the Eastern
CONUS, diminishing the likelihood of widespread severe weather.
Instead, scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are
anticipated, particularly if a mid-level shortwave interacts with
the region, potentially enhancing instability, especially around
Lake Okeechobee and Palm Beach County. Consequently, the northern
portion of South Florida, especially north of Interstate 75, is
under a marginal risk for severe weather according to the Storm
Prediction Center.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Looking ahead to the long term, the forecast indicates a
persistent easterly wind pattern, occasionally becoming breezy.
This wind regime will contribute to consistently mild to warm
weather throughout the week, possibly showing a slight uptick in
temperatures toward the weeks end. Anticipate maximum temperatures
ranging from the low to mid 80s, while overnight lows will settle
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 726 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds early this morning will increase out of the SSE
by the late morning hours. Isolated shower and thunderstorm
activity will be possible late in the afternoon near KPBI, KFXE,
and KFLL. At KAPF, light and variable winds will increase out of
the SW this afternoon as the Gulf breeze pushes inland.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

Today, a continuation of the gentle to moderate southeasterly wind
flow is anticipated, gradually transitioning to southwesterly
directions and slightly intensifying over the Atlantic waters.
Looking ahead to the upcoming week, easterly winds will prevail
over much of the local waters. Throughout the week, easterly winds
will persist, contributing to overall conditions. Wave heights in
the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less, while the Atlantic
waters will experience wave heights ranging from 2 to 4 feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 226 AM EDT Sun Apr 21 2024

An elevated risk for rip currents will remain in place for Palm
Beach County. As winds shift onshore by Monday, a high risk for
rip currents will develop for all of the Atlantic beaches. This
risk may continue into the middle of the week as another frontal
boundary approaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            87  71  89  71 /  10   0  40  10
West Kendall     88  68  90  68 /   0   0  30  10
Opa-Locka        87  70  90  70 /  10   0  40  10
Homestead        85  70  89  70 /   0   0  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  85  71  87  70 /  10  10  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  86  71  88  70 /  20  10  60  20
Pembroke Pines   87  71  91  70 /  10  10  50  10
West Palm Beach  88  68  86  68 /  20  20  60  20
Boca Raton       87  70  88  69 /  20  20  60  20
Naples           85  72  83  66 /   0  10  20  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SRB
LONG TERM....SRB
AVIATION...CWC