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000
FXUS62 KMFL 191819
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
219 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(This afternoon through Saturday)
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

With the assistance of broad upper level ridging and a surface high,
conditions will remain dry and benign as we wrap up the week and
move into the weekend. As the the wind flow veers to a more SE then
SW direction, it will allow for a gradual increase in tropical
moisture and warm air advection. Therefore, the warming trend will
continue today and tomorrow afternoon. The Atlantic and Gulf coast
breezes will keep the immediate coastal afternoon highs in the mid
to upper 80s. However, the interior temperatures, especially in SW
FL, there is potential to rise into the low 90s. With the influence
of the RH values and heat indices, it will feel a few degrees warmer
across portions of the region. Overnight lows will fall into the 60s
in a majority of South FL, with the coast keeping to the low 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 214 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Models show a weakening of the persisting ridging north of the
area as a strong trough/low storm complex migrates across the E
CONUS to start the long term. This will bring back rain chances
for SoFlo for the Mon/Tue timeframe as the ridge erodes into the
western Atlantic and allows for a weakening frontal boundary to
push south into central Florida and eventually SoFlo.

Latest solutions keep the best dynamic support well north of the
area, with the boundary reaching the area basically as a
frontolytic feature. With no significant upper-level support,
expect mainly showers accompanying this FROPA, with southerly
winds enhancing moisture advection from the Caribbean. There will
be a slight chance of thunderstorms, but mainly for the Lake
region. Models still show the decaying front stalling out
somewhere over the region and lingering through mid week, and
keeping very low chances of showers around the Atlantic coast each
day.

The warm moisture advection will result in afternoon temperatures
reaching the mid-upper 80s near the coasts, and lower 90s across
interior areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1232 PM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

VFR through the period at all TAF sites. Breezy southeasterly
winds continue through the afternoon for the east coast sites. A
Gulf sea breeze will bring W/SW flow to KAPF throughout the
afternoon. Winds become light and variable by 00Z and remain
overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail across all local waters
to wrap up the week as a surface high over the western Atlantic
continues to shift eastward. Seas will generally remain 2 feet or
less as we move into the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1127 AM EDT Fri Apr 19 2024

A moderate rip current threat is possible for the Palm Beach
county beaches through the end of the week into the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            71  86  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     67  88  68  88 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        70  89  71  88 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        68  86  70  85 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  71  85  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  71  87  71  86 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   71  90  71  89 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  68  88  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       69  88  70  88 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           69  86  70  85 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Simmons