117
FXUS62 KMFL 301648
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1248 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New SHORT TERM, MARINE, BEACHES...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

An unsettled couple of days are expected across South FL. A
shortwave trough is expected to cross the area today and then sit
just east of the area on Wednesday. Meanwhile, a surface trough that
was sitting across the east coast metro this morning will slowly
drift to the west throughout the course of today. SCT showers and
thunderstorms are expected this afternoon into evening, with the
highest PoPs over interior South FL, however chances will remain
along the coasts as well. Despite the trough axis moving east of the
area overnight into tomorrow morning, residual moisture will linger
across the area resulting in more SCT showers and thunderstorms on
Wednesday. Main threat over the next couple days will be for locally
heavy rain. While widespread flooding is not expected, PWAT values
of 1.8-1.9 inches will result in high rainfall rates, and a quick 1-
2 inches per hour is possible in spots which could lead to some
isolated urban flooding. Winds tonight over the interior are
expected to be nearly calm, so some patchy fog is possible in the
typical locations across the Everglades, around the lake, and
interior SW FL.

High temps this afternoon will range from the lower 80s across the
east coast metro to upper 80s across SW FL. A mild evening is
expected with overnight lows ranging from the middle 60s around the
lake to lower 70s close to the coasts. Temps will nudge higher a
couple degrees on Wednesday with afternoon highs in the low to mid
80s across the east coast metro, to around 90 over interior SW FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Weak surface high pressure will be situated in the western Atlantic
for the long term period, which will lead to consistent easterly
flow near the surface. Modest moisture advection and pooling will
occur as well, allowing for slight chances for showers every day
through the period. Isolated thunderstorms will be possible as
well, but will be few and far between since the local air mass
will still be semi-stable. Showers and isolated storms could be
enhanced further by daily gulf and sea breezes, but overall not
expecting widespread activity since there are only occasional
impulses of vorticity advecting through the area and no deep areas
of low pressure.

Temperatures will peak in the 80s with lower 80s along the Atlantic
coast and upper 80s across Southwest Florida. The overnight low
will be in the 60s except for lower to mid 70s across the east
coast metro areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 AM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SCT showers will result in locally heavy rain along with sub VFR
ceilings and Visbys today. SE winds increasing to 10-15 kts from
late morning through the afternoon, although variable winds are
briefly possible around convection. A westerly Gulf breeze is
expected after 18Z at APF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

SCT showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the area
waters the next couple of days which could lead to locally hazardous
marine conditions. Outside of convection, mostly benign conditions
are expected with E/SE winds 10-15 kts over the Atlantic waters and
around 10 kts in the Gulf. A light westerly wind is expected over
the Gulf waters during the afternoon on Wednesday. Seas generally 2-
4 ft in the Atlantic and 2 ft or less in the Gulf.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1247 PM EDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A high risk of rip currents remains across the Atlantic beaches
through this evening due to persistent easterly flow. The high risk
will remain across the Palm Beaches through Wednesday due to a
lingering swell, while conditions slightly improve at Broward and
Miami-Dade beaches as the SE flow weakens, however an elevated
threat will remain through much of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  84  72  86 /  30  40  20  20
West Kendall     70  86  71  86 /  30  40  20  20
Opa-Locka        71  86  72  87 /  40  40  20  20
Homestead        71  85  71  84 /  30  30  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  73  83  74  84 /  40  40  20  20
N Ft Lauderdale  72  84  72  84 /  40  40  20  20
Pembroke Pines   72  86  72  86 /  40  40  20  20
West Palm Beach  70  84  70  85 /  40  40  20  20
Boca Raton       71  85  72  84 /  40  40  20  20
Naples           71  86  71  86 /  20  20  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Wednesday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...CMF