Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL

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FXUS62 KMFL 211409
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1009 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1000 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Moisture advection continues across the region this morning as the
12Z KMFL sounding showed PWAT values of 1.13 inches. As high
pressure shifts further into the western Atlantic, the pressure
gradient across the region will increase as a disturbance in the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico slowly pushes eastward. This will
lead to a breezy east to southeasterly wind flow this afternoon
especially along the immediate east coast. With just enough lower
level moisture in place, there will be the possibility of isolated
showers developing along the sea breeze this afternoon over the
interior and western sections. High temperatures this afternoon
will range from the upper 70s across the east coast to the lower
to mid 80s across interior portions of Southwest Florida.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Overall a pleasant day expected today across South FL with high
pressure to our north still in control. Only exception is across SW
FL this afternoon into early this evening where some widely
scattered showers and perhaps an isolated thunderstorm is possible
where a pool of increased moisture and the gulf breeze will try to
tap into some of the peak heating instability. High temps today will
range from around 80 across the east coast metro to lower 80s across
SW FL.

Attention then turns to a system developing in the NW Gulf ahead of
a mid level shortwave. Low pressure will move across the northern
Gulf and cut across northern FL and move off the SE coast late
Friday into early Saturday, while another area of low pressure moves
across the southern Gulf and moves across South FL late Friday
before dissipating late Friday evening. This complex system will
bring at least a couple waves of heavy rain to South FL, the first
along and ahead of the warm front lifting across the area early
Friday, and then additional heavy rain later Friday and Friday night
as the system itself crosses South FL. Forecast soundings show
impressive deep moisture throughout the column, with PWAT values
approaching 2 inches, which would be near the max for this time of
the year. Latest rainfall totals through late Saturday are 1-2
inches around the lake region to 3-6 inches from roughly Alligator
Alley southward, with locally higher amounts possible. Localized
flooding will certainly be a concern with these high rainfall
amounts, especially in poor drainage locations. A Flood Watch will
likely be issued later today. In addition to the heavy rain, severe
wx will also be a concern especially while in the warm sector during
the day on Friday. Damaging wind gusts would be the primary concern,
but a couple of tornadoes certainly can`t be ruled out. SPC has a
marginal risk for severe wx across the area. Even outside of
thunderstorms, SE winds are expected to be gusty Friday and Friday
night, especially along the coasts where non-convective wind gusts
of 30-40 mph are possible. With the rain cooled air, high
temperatures on Friday will only reach the mid to upper 70s.

It will remain unsettled across South FL on Saturday despite the low
moving off the coast early in the day as residual moisture will
remain pooled across the area until the shortwave trough axis
finally crosses the area late Saturday night. Expect scattered
showers and thunderstorms during the day gradually coming to an end
from west to east by late in the day. High temperatures will range
from the upper 70s to around 80.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

High pressure will rebuild over the Florida Peninsula behind the
departing trough and associated cold front beginning Saturday night
through Sunday and into next week, which will bring back drier
weather through the middle of next week. Troughing will still exist
over the central U.S. next week, but the ridge over the area will
act to block positive vorticity advection from reaching South
Florida and force that energy off to the northeast. Therefore,
expect dry and comfortable weather for most of next week. Long term
guidance hints at the next trough impacting the area late next week,
but uncertainty is too high for that at this time.

Temperatures will gradually rise next week under the ridge to the
low to mid 80s by the middle of the week. Overnight lows will be in
the 60s most nights with only the east coast metro being close to 70
degrees each night after Sunday night.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 730 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. Light
and variable winds this morning will increase out of the ESE
during the late morning hours and will range between 10 and 15 kts
this afternoon. At KAPF, winds will shift to the SSW this
afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A moderate easterly flow will continue across the area waters today.
Hazardous marine conditions are expected beginning Friday and
lasting through the weekend as a system moves across the area. SCA
winds are likely with a brief period of Gale gusts possible late
Friday night into early Saturday. Seas build to 5-10 ft in the
Atlantic and 3-6 ft in the Gulf. Hazardous seas will likely linger
in the Atlantic into early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 244 AM EDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Moderate onshore flow will result in a high risk of rip currents
through Friday evening for all east coast beaches. As the flow
becomes more westerly this weekend, the rip risk for the Gulf coast
beaches will increase, while a lingering swell in the Atlantic will
keep the risk elevated for the east coast beaches. Dangerous surf
conditions is possible early next week for the Palm beaches.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  70  80  69 /  10  20  60 100
West Kendall     80  68  80  69 /  10  20  60 100
Opa-Locka        79  69  80  69 /  10  20  60 100
Homestead        80  69  80  69 /  10  20  60 100
Fort Lauderdale  78  69  80  69 /  10  20  70 100
N Ft Lauderdale  79  70  80  69 /  10  20  70 100
Pembroke Pines   79  69  80  69 /  10  20  60 100
West Palm Beach  78  68  79  67 /  10  30  70 100
Boca Raton       78  69  79  68 /  10  30  70 100
Naples           82  68  77  69 /  20  50  90  90

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT Saturday
     for AMZ630-650-651-670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 8 PM EDT
     Saturday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC


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