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000
FXUS63 KMKX 140057
AFDMKX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
757 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temps expected for the weekend into early next
  week.

- Keeping an eye on severe thunderstorm potential next Tuesday.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued 756 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

No big changes this evening or tonight. Batch of mostly high
level cirrus to move east after midnight, leaving a generally
clear sky over southern Wisconsin later tonight. At the same
time, surface wind should become light out of the west. This
will allow temperatures to drop into the lower 50s around
daybreak Sunday. Warmth and pleasant conditions remain
advertised for Sunday.

KPL

&&

.SHORT TERM...
Issued 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Tonight through Sunday night:

Upper level ridging will remain in place through the rest of the
weekend across southern Wisconsin. A shortwave trough will
overrun the ridging tonight, but the better lift and moisture
is expected to remain well to the north of our forecast area.
This means if your headed north over the weekend your likely to
encounter some rain showers. Conditions will remain dry across
southern Wisconsin through Monday.

The breezy southwest to south winds today will shift to
northwesterly Sunday behind the shortwave trough and associated
weak sfc frontal boundary. No rainfall is expected during this
time due to a lack of moisture and lift. Despite the northwest
flow temperatures will be climbing throughout the day Sunday
with daytime highs expected to climb into the mid 70s.
Confidence is high in the warmer temps when looking at the 925mb
temperatures which are around 14-19 degrees C throughout the
afternoon and evening.

Patterson

&&

.LONG TERM...
Issued 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Monday through Saturday:

As the upper level ridge begins to pull out of Great Lakes
Region, on its heels will be a trough thats advancing from the
desert SW. Monday will likely (80% or higher) remain under the
influence of the exiting ridge which will keep conditions
pleasant and dry.

Monday night into Tuesday this strong trough and surface low
pressure system will advect toward the state. As the surface low
advances northeast, the warm from is expected to move into
southern Wisconsin bringing rain and storms. The potential for
any storms to become strong to severe will be dependent on
whether or not skies clear behind the warm front. Guidance
seems to be split on this with the longest running short term
models just barely being able to pick up this Tuesday system,
there is a decent mix of clear and overcast conditions. The two
likely scenarios are as follows:

Warm front moves through an initially round of rainfall and
skies remain overcast resulting in a rough environmental
recovery. Instability will be lacking in this instance which
will result in a small potential (30% ish) for some strong
storms.

The second would still have the warm front move through maybe
there is a bit of rain along the leading edge, but skies quickly
clear out. This results in warming temperatures and increasing
instability. With the potential for some good 0-6km shear around
40-50 kts, the likelihood of severe storms will increase. Its
still a bit far out to be drawing an concrete conclusions on the
intensity of any severe weather or what the potential hazards
may be. However, it is likely (~80% chance) that there will be
rain and a few thunderstorms at least.

Looking ahead to Wednesday, the upper level trough is expected
to be overhead. During this time rain/storms is expected to
persist through much of the day. The better upper level support
will shift east, which will lower our potential for severe
weather during this time. Further ahead for the end of the work
week, low chance POPs (20% chance or lower)are making their way
into the forecast. This is in part due to model discrepancies
between the next trough that is expected to be on the heels of
this Tuesday system. This second trough is expected to descend
out of northwestern Canada and long term guidance is split on
track for this one. Overall the focus will be on Tuesday through
the weekend.

Patterson

&&

.AVIATION...
Issued 756 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Other than patches of high clouds, VFR conditions will exist for
the rest of tonight and into Sunday. Breezy surface wind will
become light out of the west, then eventually northwest Sunday
morning across southern Wisconsin.

KPL

&&

.MARINE...
Issued 239 PM CDT Sat Apr 13 2024

Southerly winds have set up across the Lake this afternoon as
the surface ridge moves into Michigan. Breezy south winds with
gusts of 20-25 kts in the nearshore will be possible through
this evening. With an inversion expected to set up over Lake
Michigan the best chance for gusty winds will be prior to
sunset. A Small Craft Advisory is in effect through early Sunday
morning due to the gusty winds. A passing wave of low pressure
and cold front will then shift winds back out of the north to
northwest by Sunday afternoon. Light and variable winds are in
store Sunday night into Monday. Tuesday gusty south winds are
expected to return with a potential for some gale force gusts.
Tuesday and Wednesday also brings the return of rain/storms.

Patterson

&&

.MKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WI...None.
LM...Small Craft Advisory...LMZ645-LMZ646 until 7 AM Sunday.

&&

$$

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