Text Products for FWS Issued by MKX

Spot Forecast
Issued by NWS Milwaukee/Sullivan, WI
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FNUS73 KMKX 100958
FWSMKX

Spot Forecast for Bear Creek Rx Burn...WI DNR
National Weather Service Milwaukee/Sullivan WI
458 AM CDT Wed Apr 10 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 0600 CDT on April 10.

Please contact the National Weather Service if conditions become
unrepresentative or if you have questions/concerns about this forecast.

.DISCUSSION...

Today will be much warmer with high temps this afternoon climbing
to around 70F after 1300 CDT. Will see mixing heights climb
drastically after 1100 CDT and top off around 8.6 kft between
1300-1600 CDT. With the increasing mixing heights expect improving
smoke dispersal conditions to follow a similar timeline with
excellent conditions after 1200 CDT.

Given the deeper mixing height and warmer temps, RHs will be on
the lower side today falling into the 30 percent range after 1100
CDT and below 30 percent after 1400 CDT. However, if temps creep a
bit higher than the current forecast, would not be surprised to
see RHs bottom out a bit lower closer to the 20-25 percent range
by this afternoon.

Winds are expected to remain light through the morning before
picking up slightly to just below 10 mph after 1200 CDT. While
the general winds remain light and predominantly out of the west-
southwest, may see winds pick up a bit and shift to follow the
upstream orientation of the creek valley this afternoon with peak
heating.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (25-35 percent).
Temperature.........36 at ignition...Max 70.
RH..................96 percent at ignition...Min 28 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds south at 3 mph at ignition...otherwise
                    Light winds becoming southwest 5 to 7 mph in
                    the late morning and afternoon.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL at ignition...otherwise 8600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 9 to 16 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor /3300 knot-ft/ at ignition.
                    Max...excellent /98400 knot-ft/ increasing to
                    excellent (70700 knot-ft) late in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 or low potential for large plume dominated
                    fire growth at ignition...max 5.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........4   5   6   6   7   19  31  43  46  48  51  53
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
Temp............36  38  42  49  57  62  66  68  70  70  70  69
RH..............96  89  79  63  49  41  36  32  30  29  29  30
20 FT wind dir..S   S   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   SW
20 FT wind spd..3   3   4   5   6   6   7   7   7   6   6   5
20 FT wind gust.5   5   6   6   8   10  10  10  10  10  8   6
Mix hgt (kft)...0.4 0.4 0.4 0.9 1.4 3.8 7.3 8.2 8.5 8.5 8.6 7.9
Transp wind dir.SW  SW  SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W   W   W   W
Transp wind spd.10  10  9   12  14  16  15  14  16  14  13  10
Haines index....4   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/10003   3   3   9   17  53  95  98  119 103 95  71

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (55-65 percent). Slight chance of
                    rain showers early in the morning.
Temperature.........Min 45.
RH..................Max 85 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds.
Mixing height.......300 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 5 to 8 mph shifting to the south 3 to 8
                    mph early in the evening, then shifting to the
                    north around 6 mph after 3 am shifting to the
                    northwest early in the morning.
Smoke dispersal.....Good (38600 knot-ft) early in the evening
                    decreasing to poor (1600 knot-ft) late in the
                    night.
Haines Index........5 or moderate potential for large plume
                    dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........54  56  60  64  68  68  69  69  68  68  67  68
Weather cov.....                                            SCH
Weather type....                                            RW
Tstm cov........
Temp............67  65  62  58  55  53  51  50  48  47  46  45
RH..............33  35  39  47  53  59  63  68  74  76  79  82
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   SE  SE  SE  SE  SE  E   E   E   NE
20 FT wind spd..4   3   3   4   4   4   4   4   4   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.5   4   4   5   5   5   5   5   5   6   6   6
Mix hgt (kft)...5.5 0.8 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3
Transp wind dir.W   SW  S   SE  SE  S   S   S   S   S   N   NW
Transp wind spd.8   5   3   5   7   8   8   7   8   7   6   6
Haines index....5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5   5
SDspl kt-ft/100039  3   2   2   2   3   3   2   3   2   2   2

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Chance of rain
                    showers in the morning, then rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon.
Temperature.........Max 62.
RH..................Min 48 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds becoming north 5 to 13 mph in the
                    morning and early afternoon, then shifting to
                    the northwest around 13 mph with gusts to
                    around 19 mph late in the afternoon. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......4600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....North 6 to 13 mph increasing to northwest 17 to
                    26 mph in the afternoon.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor (1600 knot-ft) early in the morning
                    increasing to excellent (98300 knot-ft) in the
                    afternoon.
Haines Index........4 to 5 or low to moderate potential for large
                    plume dominated fire growth.

TIME (CDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........68  69  73  78  82  83  83  84  84  83  83  82
Weather cov.....SCH CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC DEF DEF DEF DEF DEF
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                                        SCH SCH
Temp............45  46  49  53  56  58  59  60  61  61  60  59
RH..............82  79  74  66  62  57  55  53  51  49  51  53
20 FT wind dir..NE  NE  NE  N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW
20 FT wind spd..4   5   6   6   7   8   10  11  12  13  13  13
20 FT wind gust.6   6   7   8   10  12  14  16  17  18  18  19
Mix hgt (kft)...0.3 0.3 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.3 3.4 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 3.4
Transp wind dir.N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  NW
Transp wind spd.6   7   7   8   10  13  17  22  23  25  26  25
Haines index....5   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4   4
SDspl kt-ft/10002   2   3   7   14  25  52  87  90  96  98  76

$$
Forecaster...Wagner
Requested by...Kyle LaZotte
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2410152.0/MKX
.DELDT 04/10/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL kyle.lazotte@wisconsin.gov
National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office
