Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
Issued by NWS Mobile, AL
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952 FXUS64 KMOB 281009 AFDMOB Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Mobile AL 509 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .NEAR TERM... (Now through Monday) Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 Upper level ridging continues to extend across much of the eastern and southeastern U.S. early this morning while an upper level low pressure system continues to lift from the southern Rockies into the central Plains. A moist low level southeasterly flow pattern remains prevalent across our forecast area between ridging to our east and low pressure moving over the Plains. This synoptic setup will change little through this afternoon. Warm and breezy conditions are expected across our forecast area again today with southeasterly winds increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts of 20-30 mph over inland areas and up to 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph closer to the coast. High temperatures today should once again reach into the lower to mid 80s over inland portions of the forecast area and in the mid 70s to near 80 degrees along the immediate coast and beaches. Several members of the available deterministic and CAM guidance continue to show weak isentropic ascent resulting in the development of a few rain showers and potentially a brief thunderstorm or two over our western zones by this afternoon. We will maintain a slight (15-20% chance) of convection generally along and west of a Butler, AL to Lucedale, MS line during the afternoon. Dry weather conditions are anticipated across our region this evening through late tonight. Overnight lows should range from around 60 degrees to the mid 60s over interior areas and in the upper 60s to lower 70s along the immediate coast and beaches. Upper level ridging will shift further to the east across the western Atlantic on Monday as an upper level shortwave trough over the Plains approaches the Mississippi Valley region. Forcing for ascent will become enhanced from northern portions of Louisiana into the Lower Mississippi Valley region late Sunday night into Monday morning where an associated convective squall line/QLCS may be located during this time frame. The shortwave trough axis should continue to pivot eastward across Mississippi and toward western portions of Alabama during the day Monday. Isolated convection could develop into western portions of our forecast area as early as Monday morning. Short range models are in relatively good agreement with bringing associated deeper moisture/ascent into our southeast MS/southwest AL zones by Monday afternoon and we expect to see increasing convective coverage across locations especially west of Interstate 65. POPs were trended higher, now generally ranging up to 40-60% on Monday across locations west of a Grove Hill to Mobile line, with a slight chance of rain extending as far east as portions of south central AL and the western FL panhandle. MLCAPE values could increase up to 500-1000 J/KG across southeast MS and adjacent parts of far southwest AL late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. Low level and deep layer shear does not appear to be overly impressive with this system, but may be sufficient enough to sustain a convective line capable of producing embedded strong wind gusts as it enters our southeast MS/far southwest AL counties late Monday morning into Monday afternoon. The overall severe threat still looks marginal at this time. Highs Monday afternoon change little with readings ranging in the lower to mid 80s over inland areas and in the mid 70s to near 80 along the immediate coast and beaches. In terms of ongoing coastal hazards: many of our local beaches reported double red flags (waters closed to the public) on Saturday due to dangerous surf and rip current conditions. Expect similar conditions today as a HIGH risk of deadly rip currents continues given the persistent southeasterly flow and increased swell along area beaches. Surf remains high between 4-7 feet today before slowly coming down to 3-5 feet by late Monday afternoon or early Monday evening. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect through 7 PM Monday, while the HIGH rip current risk continues along area beaches through Tuesday night. /21 && SHORT THROUGH LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 505 PM CDT Sat Apr 27 2024 A shortwave trough moving over the Southeast/Tennessee River Valley Monday night into Tuesday deamplifies and shifts east a mean upper ridge over the East coast. Another upper ridge builds north from old Mexico over the Mississippi River Valley though mid week, moving over the East Coast by the end of the week. A weakly organized surface ridge that has developed over the northeastern Gulf of Mexico shifts north, reorganizing over the Eastern Conus as the second upper ridge develops. A deep layer of Gulf moisture that has moved over the Mississippi/Alabama line (with precipitable h20 values in the 1.4"-1.75") decreases as mid/upper level dry air moves over the Southeast with the building upper upper ridge. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to last into Monday night, with best coverage being over the western half of the forecast area. With decent instability (SBCapes in the 1000-1500J/kg range) but marginal to meh wind shear, there may be a strong to marginally severe storm, but organized storms are not expected. Precipitation decreases through mid week with the decreasing moisture levels and increasing subsidence, but as low level flow becomes better organized the end of the week into the weekend, moistures levels increase again. Enough subsidence from the upper ridge remaining over the Southeast will help to temper rain chances for the coming weekend. At this point, best chance of rain will be over the northern-most portions of the forecast area. There has been a trend for rain chances to increase this weekend, so may nudge PoPs up in coming forecasts. Guidance is advertising temperatures around to a bit above seasonal norms at the beginning of the week rising to well above by the end. Low temperatures see a bit of an increase, ranging from around 60 to mid 60s Monday night to low 60s to upper 60s Thursday night on. High temperatures see the biggest increase, from low to mid 80s Tuesday to mid to upper 80s inland, low 80s along the coast by Thursday. /16 && .MARINE... Issued at 505 AM CDT Sun Apr 28 2024 A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for much of the marine area through late Sunday night as southeasterly winds range between 15-25 kt with gusts up to around 30 kt. Seas will continue to build to 5-8 ft over the Gulf marine zones. Southeasterly winds should gradually diminish with a gradual subside in seas during the early to middle part of the week. /21 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Mobile 83 67 82 65 81 66 84 65 / 10 0 40 40 40 0 10 0 Pensacola 80 68 79 67 80 67 82 67 / 0 0 10 20 30 0 0 0 Destin 79 68 78 68 79 68 81 68 / 0 0 10 10 20 0 0 0 Evergreen 84 60 85 62 83 62 88 62 / 10 0 20 30 40 0 10 0 Waynesboro 84 63 84 62 83 63 86 62 / 20 0 60 60 50 0 20 0 Camden 83 60 85 62 81 61 86 61 / 10 0 30 50 40 0 10 0 Crestview 84 59 85 61 85 61 88 61 / 0 0 10 10 30 0 0 0 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for ALZ265-266. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for ALZ265-266. FL...High Rip Current Risk through late Tuesday night for FLZ202-204- 206. High Surf Advisory until 7 PM CDT Monday for FLZ202-204-206. MS...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM CDT Monday for GMZ630>634-650- 655-670-675. && $$ This product is also available on the web at: www.weather.gov/mob