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000
FXUS63 KOAX 111653
AFDOAX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Omaha/Valley NE
1153 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Extreme fire danger forecast today. A Red Flag Warning is
  posted for the vast majority of the area. Expect at least
  very high fire danger again in parts of the area on Saturday.

- High temperatures in the 80s Saturday, Sunday, and Monday.

- There is a 50 to 80 percent chance of thunderstorms Monday
  afternoon into Tuesday area-wide, with a 15% chance of severe
  weather in portions of southeast Nebraska.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 430 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Quick northwesterly winds of 10-20 mph have helped prop up
temps overnight with widespread 40s intermixed with a couple of
50s. Surface analysis reveals a cold front / wind shift line has
escaped the CWA and is pushing through Missouri early this
morning. Pushing up to 500 hPa, a shortwave trough is
sandwiched between two upper lows to the north and south. Light
radar returns are mostly fading as they work south across the
SD/NE state line. Believe low levels are too dry for anything to
reach the surface, but have maintained 8% PoPs in northern tier
of counties through sunrise. Skies are mostly clear beyond the
mid- level clouds up north and a few high level clouds exiting
the southeast corner of the CWA.

.TODAY...

Fire Danger deserves the headlines through the weekend with
that danger peaking this afternoon. Strong northwesterly flow
continues through the day with continued CAA of 1.5C per hour at
hPa 850. Highs will max out in the low 60s... a fall of about
10-15F. Mixing through about 7000 feet will help mix winds of
about 35 knots to the surface producing surface gusts of
35-50mph today.

Dewpoints of -11C will mix down to the surface, too, leading to
RH values slipping below 20% this afternoon and evening.
Wednesday evening, in collaboration with Emergency Management,
OAX converted the remainder of the Fire Weather Watch to a RED
FLAG WARNING. While I chose not to expand the RFW into our last
two counties in Iowa (Page and Montgomery) in collaboration with
DMX and EAX... fire danger will still be very high there.

.FRIDAY...

Heights climb as the upper level ridge noses east and into the
CWA. Northerly winds become calm mid-day before developing a
southerly component in the afternoon. This combined with
unblemished sunshine will lead to high temps at least into the
60s. This forecaster believes low 70s are possible with the dry
soil and high sun angle... though that solution is admittedly
near the 90th percentile. Despite the warmth and dry
conditions, a lack of significant wind speed should keep
rangeland fire danger in the "high" to "very high" categories.

.THE WEEKEND...

Stronger southerly winds on Saturday will help push both heat
and humidity into the area with highs topping off in low to
mid-80s. This will be the warmest day of the year so far (80F on
2/26/24). Gusts should crest at 20-30 mph and RH values may
slip into the mid-20s. Love to see things greening up, but there
are plenty of dry fuels and fire danger will still be at least
"very high" once again. If winds climb or dewpoints slip beyond
the current forecast, a fire weather headline will be needed
again.

Sunday will be even warmer with a 90 possible along the KS state
line as the decaying ridge passes through the central CONUS and
over the area.

.NEXT WEEK...

Monday will be well above normal, too, but temps may begin to
slip under the faltering ridge with increasing cloud cover
playing a part. On the heels of the ridge axis a potent
shortwave pushes into the area as it acquires a negative tilt.
Widespread precip is expected with 80% PoPs and a rough QPF of
0.6" or so. Timing and track location details are too early to
parse out, but SPC highlights a 15% chance of severe weather in
the area in the evening and/or early Tuesday morning. Shear and
instability forecasts substantiate this outlook. CSU machine-
learning probabilities are closer to 5%.

Behind the departing system, temperatures are anticipated to
fall closer to seasonal norms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1153 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

VFR conditions expected through the period with passing clouds
around 5000 to 7000 ft agl. Northwest winds will gust 30 to 40
kts through the afternoon before subsiding to around 10 kts this
evening.

&&

.OAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NE...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for NEZ011-012-
     015>018-030>034-042>045-050>053-065>068-078-088>093.
IA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for IAZ043-055-
     056-069-079-080-090-091.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Nicolaisen
AVIATION...CA