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000
FXUS63 KPAH 142325
AFDPAH

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Paducah KY
625 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Unseasonably warm weather continues through mid week.

- Next chance for severe weather comes Tuesday evening through Wednesday
  morning.

- Cooler and drier Friday onward.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Updated aviation discussion for 00z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 254 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Aloft today we`re in slight northwest flow with a ridge axis through
the Plains with sfc ridging over the SE CONUS and a sfc low over the
eastern Great Lakes that is moving east. Warm weather continues
today with highs expected in the 80s with breezy southwest winds. It
will be warm again tomorrow as the upper level ridge axis moves
east.

Aloft tomorrow afternoon an upper level closed low is positioned
just north of the Four Corners region. This kicks off lee
cyclogenesis across the CO Front Range. A warm front then sets up
extending from the sfc low east from NE to just north of our area
(possibly right along our northern border). This will bring chances
for a few isolated showers/storms tomorrow afternoon and
evening along the front. Deep layer shear is not the strongest
tomorrow, but there is sufficient MUCAPE (around 1,500-2,000
J/kg) with mid level lapse rates around 7-7.5 that there could
be some isolated strong (and maybe a severe or two) storms. A
leading vorticity pocket aloft moves through by Tuesday morning
and brings some showers/storms from west to east Tuesday morning
with a brief break in activity expected Tuesday afternoon.

Also by Tuesday morning the upper low is almost vertically stacked
with the sfc low. The upper low is over the CO, NE, KS border and
the sfc low is over western NE. The sfc low deepens through Tuesday
afternoon with 850 mb flow increasing over the forecast area through
Tuesday night to around 50 kts. With this model cycle, sfc flow
looks to be more southerly by Tuesday afternoon which should advect
in higher dewpoints than previously thought. Models have dewpoints
around 60-63 degrees through Tuesday afternoon and evening and up to
65 degrees by Tuesday night. Right now models have mid level lapse
rates at around 6.2-7.0 Tuesday night, but these could steepen as an
EML advects in overnight during ongoing convection. The best
instability still looks to be after dark with MUCAPE values around
500-1,500 J/kg. Deep layer shear is still around 50-65 kts
overnight. Convection looks to start up late Tuesday
afternoon/evening and continue through at least Wednesday morning if
not early afternoon. Hail and wind look to be the greatest threats
but a few tornadoes would not be out of the question either, with
sufficiently curved hodographs. The cold front then looks to move
through late Wednesday afternoon/evening with instability lingering
through Wednesday morning.

Overall this model cycle looks to have quelled some of the
thermodynamic concerns of the previous forecast. There appears to be
more favorable low level moisture return and less mid level
capping/dry air. Still, this will be a system to keep an eye on to
see if subsequent model runs continue to trend this way.

On Thursday aloft a shortwave ridge moves through in an otherwise
quasi zonal flow regime followed by a subtle shortwave Thursday
night. PoPs ramp up Thursday afternoon into Thursday evening.
These PoPs may be a little overdone at the moment with the EC
and the GFS both favoring drier conditions. Overall the pattern
looks to shift to that of a cooler and drier regime for Friday
onward.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 624 PM CDT Sun Apr 14 2024

Winds will gradually subside through the overnight as mixing in
the boundary layer decreases. Skies will remain mostly clear
until Monday morning when cigs around 3.5-4.5 kft AGL will begin
to develop through the afternoon. The NBM indicates a 30-40%
probability of MVFR cigs at KEVV/KOWB/KPAH, but did not include
any mention due to low confidence. Across the northern
terminals, included PROB30s for -TSRA as isolated convection is
possible after 21z. There is uncertainty in the southern extent
of the boundary which will also have implications on the cloud
forecast. Winds will be southerly between 5-10 kts.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...None.
MO...None.
IN...None.
KY...None.

&&

$$

UPDATE...DW
DISCUSSION...SHAWKEY
AVIATION...DW