056
FXUS61 KPBZ 281639
AFDPBZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1239 PM EDT Sun Apr 28 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Above normal temperature is expected through much of the
upcoming week while precipitation chances will be mainly focused
on Tuesday and Friday into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- High Temperatures 10 to 15 degrees above normal.
- Afternoon showers and storms possible north.

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Dry and seasonably warm temperature is expected for much of the
region today under the influence of upper level ridging and
surface high pressure centered over the Carolinas. High
temperature should exceed yesterday`s readings by a few degrees,
with any shortfall in reaching forecasted temps likely tied to
cu coverage.

The exception is the potential for isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms during the mid to late afternoon hours mainly
along and north of I-80. A weak shortwave will traverse the
ridge axis and provide enough lift along with a weak lake breeze
boundary near Erie to initiate convection. Warm air aloft may
limit overall coverage or even cap/limit convective initiation,
while keeping severe threats low (given weak shear and modest
SBCAPE).

Partly to mostly clear skies and light wind are expected
overnight, with the warm airmass maintaining well above normal
temperature. Record high minimum temperature could be approached
at a few climate sites.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- Near record high max temperature Monday and high min
  temperature Tuesday are each possible.
- Showers and thunderstorms return Tuesday.

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Eastern CONUS ridging will remain intact Monday as an upper
level trough lifts northward through the northern Mississippi
River Valley. Warm air aloft and subsidence will cap any
convection, keeping dry conditions in place and allowing for
plenty of insolation. Near to record high temperatures are in
play for most climate sites, with only a deviation toward 75th
to 90th percentile temperature to realize new records. This is
not out of question as high temperature this past Saturday for
most sites ended up above the 90th percentile outcome.

Gradual ridge breakdown will occur Monday night into Tuesday
with shortwave movement shunts the ridge axis southeast.
Increase moist advection resulting in higher cloud cover should
insulate the region and buoy low temperature Tuesday morning.
Near to record high minimum temperature at most climate sites
could result (see climate section).

Variability remains in the strength of the initial wave and
presence of a follow-up trough, but either upper level feature
is expected to be weak while slowly pushing a weak cold front
through the region. Shortwave trough shape/movement will dictate
precipitation timing and degree of heating ahead of the cold
front; latest trends have a slower progression of these features
that keep precipitation chance into Tuesday night. Any severe
threat will depend on strength of that passing shortwave. It
still appears that the severe threat will be limited given
excessive cloud cover and residual warm air aloft acting to cap
upward momentum (CAPE values likely to be less than 500 J/kg).

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
KEY MESSAGES:

- An unsettled pattern continues through the long term with
  above-average temperatures favored.

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High pressure and ridging are likely to develop behind the
exiting shortwave Wednesday, though the degree of height rises
remain uncertain. Further re-establishment of the eastern CONUS
ridge (and central plains trough) will drive area temperature
well above normal again both Wednesday and Thursday while
maintaining dry weather.

Ensembles favor upper level trough movement through the Great
Lakes region Friday into the weekend that would push the ridge
axis southeast and introduce widespread shower and thunderstorm
chances. Timing of said pattern shift (which will play role in
precipitation timing and temperature trends Friday into
Saturday).

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR will prevail through the TAF period under a building ridge.

There is slight chance of showers/thunderstorms at FKL and DUJ
late this afternoon as a disturbance crosses southern
Ontario/Lake Erie on the northern periphery of the mentioned
ridge, however, chances are not high enough for TAF inclusion at
this time.

.Outlook...
VFR is expected through Monday under a ridge of high pressure.
Restrictions are likely Tuesday in showers and a few
thunderstorms with a crossing cold front. VFR returns Wednesday
and Thursday under high pressure.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Here is a table of the record high and low temperatures Monday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record High  Year    Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             88      (1899)      65      (1974)
Wheeling               86*     (1942)      64      (1914)
Morgantown             91      (1899)      67      (1914)
New Philadelphia       90      (1986)      64      (1974)
Zanesville             90      (1899)      67      (1914)
Dubois                 80*     (1970)      61*     (1974)

Here is a table of the record low temperatures Tuesday.
(* denotes current forecasted temperature exceeds value)

                  Record Low  Year
Pittsburgh             69      (1899)
Wheeling               58*     (1911)
Morgantown             66      (1910)
New Philadelphia       63      (1991)
Zanesville             69      (1910)
Dubois                 60*     (1970)

&&

.PBZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
OH...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Frazier
NEAR TERM...Frazier
SHORT TERM...Frazier
LONG TERM...Frazier
AVIATION...88
CLIMATE...Frazier