Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
Issued by NWS Reno, NV
285 FXUS65 KREV 302048 AFDREV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Reno NV 148 PM PDT Tue Apr 30 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Seasonably warm and dry weather with breezy afternoon winds will prevail today before a dry cold frontal passage tonight brings cooler weather Wednesday. Cooler weather with increasing shower chances begin Friday and last over the weekend. && .SHORT TERM... Sunny skies and mild temperatures are ongoing across the Sierra and western Nevada with breezy west winds becoming more common areawide as the afternoon goes on. Lake waters may become a bit choppy this afternoon as a result. A dry cold front will advance through the region this evening and overnight, introducing brisk northwest to north winds and a cooler air mass in its wake. As a result, Wednesday will be the coolest day of the work week with highs reaching the 50s and 60s for Sierra and western Nevada locales, respectively. A very brief warming trend will ensue Thursday as temperatures rebound back towards seasonal averages. Winds will become quite gusty Thursday afternoon in response to strengthening 700 mb flow and effective vertical mixing. Wind gusts of 30-40 mph will be common across western Nevada and around 20-30 mph for the Sierra. Plan on another bout of choppy lake waters Thursday afternoon. .LONG TERM... Late this week and the weekend continues to favor cooler weather and increasing shower activity, courtesy of an eastern Pacific upper cyclone. Blended guidance indicates showers may begin as early as late Friday night near the Oregon border with increased shower chances spreading southward across the remainder of the region Saturday morning and afternoon. Shower activity will linger into Sunday morning before coverage and intensity wanes by Sunday afternoon. By Monday morning, the Sierra and areas generally near/north of the I-80 corridor have over a 40% chance of receiving a tenth of inch of QPF. In fact, the Sierra crest has a 15-30% of QPF of 1" or greater in the same timeframe. Elsewhere, there is less than a 30% chance of reaching the same threshold. High elevation snowfall has a 30-50% of 4" or more along the Sierra crest. Much cooler weather will unfold over the weekend with temperatures becoming at least 10 degrees below average. Ensembles seemingly favor unsettled weather lasting well into next week as eastern Pacific troughing persists. -Salas && .AVIATION... Widespread VFR conditions will prevail through the remainder of the day and Wednesday with breezy west winds through the afternoon. A dry cold front will induce a wind shift from westerly to N/NW tonight, perhaps yielding some brief LLWS along the front. -Salas && .REV Watches/Warnings/Advisories... NV...None. CA...None. && $$