Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 251116
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
716 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings very dry conditions today, likely inducing fire
weather concerns. The next system brings a wetting rain Tuesday
into Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 715 AM Monday...

The zeitgeist of the forecast is on track. There are large
ridge/hilltop vs valley temperature differences, with strong
winds aloft struggling to reach the surface, especially in the
valleys. This was making for very large RH differences to start
out, with some hilltops already in the 20s while some valleys
were carrying RH values much more typical of sunrise.

As of 500 AM Monday...

With a handful of mesonet sites showing wind gusts in the 40s in
mph, have increased confidence in wind gusts in excess of 45 mph
when winds pick back up tonight after diminishing a bit today. Issued
a wind advisory for tonight through Tuesday morning for areas
in and just west of the mountains. For counties just west of the
mountains, including Kanawha, it is the east to southeast
portions of the county that will experience the strongest wind
gusts.

As of 305 AM Monday...Corrected wind wording for today

Key Points:

* Very and breezy conditions today will lead to increased fire
  weather concerns across the area.

* Strong winds aloft tonight could lead to low level wind shear
  whenever and wherever sufficiently high gusts do not mix to
  the surface.

The forecast area resides in a very dry, strong low level
southeast flow between surface ridging along the east coast, and
a large, strong southern stream low pressure system out to the
west, today and tonight.

Dew points in the lower 20s lowlands and teens in and near the
mountains this afternoon, will combine with high temperatures
around 70 over the lowlands, 50s and 60s mountains, given
sunshine limited only by high thin cloud, to produce minimum RH
values mostly in the teens over the lowlands, teens and 20s
mountains.

Peak wind gusts across the lowlands will reach 15 to 20 mph this
morning and 20 to 25 mph by late afternoon. Peak wind gusts
across, and just downstream, or northwest, of the central
mountains of WV will be 30 to as high as 40 mph this morning,
before settling down to the 25 to 30 mph range this afternoon.

With fuels drying out since the rain Friday night into
Saturday, elevated fire weather concerns will exist across the
area today, especially this afternoon and even into this
evening. Even if most of the area likely falls short
of Red Flag Warning criteria on winds, at least a Fire Danger
Statement seems likely for much of the area today. Will
continue to coordinate with neighbors and forestry partners
early this morning. See fire weather section below for more
details.

Peak wind gusts tonight reach 25 to 30 mph across much of the
lowlands, but 45 to 50 mph across, and just downstream, or
northwest, of the mountains, especially the central mountains,
would would warrant a wind advisory. Guidance continues to
evince little mixing across the north central lowlands of WV,
except perhaps for a time late this afternoon.

Winds as high as 65 to70 mph at h925 amid a stout inversion
tonight could induce low level wind shear even with some gusts
mixing through to the surface.

Increasing wind and only slowly increasing dew points will make
for a slow RH recovery tonight.

The large, strong low pressure system comes out of the central
high plains this morning and tracks northeastward into the upper
midwest tonight. Its associated cold front reaches into the
lower Ohio Valley toward dawn Tuesday. Warm advection ahead of
the system, and increasing differential vorticity advection
ahead of the mid-upper level short wave trough, are likely to
result in showers encroaching upon the middle Ohio Valley from
the west toward dawn Friday.

Moisture limited to the h7-h6 layer before dawn Tuesday will
preclude a heavy rain or thunder threat. To be sure, moisture
and lift may become just sufficient to produce precipitation
that could make it through the dry low levels to the surface as
far east as the Ohio River by dawn Tuesday.

The strong southeast flow will keep temperatures above normal
tonight, with decoupling limited to the deeper, better sheltered
valleys, along with a portion of the north central lowlands of
WV.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

An area of low pressure will move across the plains and up through
the Great Lakes. Chances for precipitation will increase ahead of a
cold front Tuesday morning with showers forming from west to east,
and the heaviest axis of QPF across the mountains Tuesday afternoon.
Hydro/flooding does not look to be an issue at this point in time
due to forecasted light rainfall amounts.

Breezy to gusty winds, particularly across the mountains, will be
likely Tuesday into Wednesday as a mid-level jet moves overhead;
GFS and NAM do show up to 90 knots of sfc-500mb bulk shear
Tuesday evening. Light showers expected into Tuesday night as a
cold front moves through the region into Wednesday morning. Most
of the rain will stay along the mountains through the day
Wednesday. Some isolated rumbles of thunder are possible late
Tuesday into Wednesday with the frontal passage, SPC already has
the area in a general thunderstorm outlook for such activity.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 300 AM Monday...

Cold front should finally be east of the area come Wednesday
night, with surface high pressure encroaching Thursday morning.
Drier weather will commence, but Thursday looks to show
temperatures in the 50s across the much of the area. Mild, yet
warmer temperatures, as well as mostly sunny skies commence
Friday. Another system looks possible over the weekend and next
Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 715 AM Monday...

VFR is expected to persist through the TAF period, courtesy of
high pressure, while mid to high level clouds pass overhead.

The forecast area resides in a very dry, strong low level
southeast flow between the surface ridging along the east
coast, and a large, strong southern stream low pressure system
out to the west, today and tonight.

Peak surface wind gusts across the lowlands will reach around 15
kts this morning, around 20 kts by late afternoon, and then up
to around 25 kts tonight. Peak wind gusts across, and just
downstream, or northwest, of the central mountains of WV will
be 35 kts this morning, before settling down to around 25 kts
range this afternoon, but then increasing to around 40 kts at
least across and just downstream, or northwest, of the central
mountains of WV tonight.

BKW will have the strongest winds, while CKB will have the
lightest flow, as guidance continues to evince little mixing
across the north central lowlands of WV, except perhaps for a
time late this afternoon.

Winds as high as 55 kts at h9, or about 1-3 kft agl depending
upon terrain elevation, amid a stout inversion tonight could
induce low level wind shear even with some gusts mixing through
to the surface. Aviation interests should be keenly aware of
these very strong low level winds tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of onset of gusty winds this morning
is uncertain. Gusty winds will fluctuate, which could allow for
LLWS to develop during lulls. If LLWS develops, extent and
duration could vary from current TAFs. LLWS tonight could
develop even with some gusts mixing to the surface.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 03/25/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions may occur in any areas of rain Tuesday and Tuesday
night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 305 AM Monday...Corrected wind wording for today

RH recovery was poor across portions of the middle Ohio Valley
and the western slopes of the high terrain early this morning.
That sets the stage for very low RH values later today. With
afternoon temperatures expected to reach around 70 degrees
across much of the lower elevations, and a large layer of very
dry air not too far aloft, significantly low RH values are
expected across the area this afternoon.

Most of the area will likely see at least a few hours of
Minimum RH values into the 15-20 percent range. Wind gusts
across the lowlands will reach 15 to 20 mph this morning and 20
to 25 mph by late afternoon. Peak wind gusts across, and just
downstream, or northwest, of the central mountains of WV will be
30 to as high as 40 mph this morning, before settling down to
the 25 to 30 mph range this afternoon.

Fortunately, the area with the stronger winds is generally also
an area that got more precipitation with the Friday night into
Saturday system, which may help minimally. However, what fuel
moisture readings available there were 8 to 9 percent, as they
were across the middle Ohio Valley, where less rain was noted.

While winds may not be quite as strong across the middle Ohio
Valley, at a minimum an area-wide fire danger statement may be
needed today, and we will coordinate with neighbors and our
forestry partners on any potential Fire Fire Danger Statements
or even Red Flag Warnings that they feel may be needed.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Wind Advisory from 7 PM this evening to 1 PM EDT Tuesday for
     WVZ015-025>027-034-039-515>523-525-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...TRM

FIRE WEATHER...


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