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000
FXUS61 KRLX 150656
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
256 AM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
The Ohio River remains in flood today. A cold front slips into
the area tonight then stalls, before returning northward as a
warm front Tuesday. A cold front crosses Wednesday night.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

A convectively reinforced cold front is making significantly less
southward progress than previously forecast and will be the primary
driver for sensible weather today. Have updated the forecast to
reflect the most plausible scenario currently with the effective
cold front landing somewhere in the vicinity of the Metro
Valley and points east this afternoon with convection - some
strong to severe firing late this afternoon into this evening.
As was the case today, capping near the base of the EML could
yield somewhat later than normal diurnal firing of storms. Final
forecast discussion will come out toward 330 am this morning
after some 06Z mesoscale guidance starts to filter in.

As of 1013 PM Sunday...

Delayed the onset of precipitation across the northern sections
until after midnight. Winds continue subsiding tonight.

As of 616 PM Sunday...

Sent a quick update to increase hourly temperatures as the
afternoon heat peaked around 6 PM. Strong southwest winds
gusting up to 35 knots, afternoon heating and mixing have
dropped RHs into the mid to lower 20s across most of the area.
Opted to issue and enhance fire danger statement for WV and KY
after coordination with fire partners.

As of 1238 PM Sunday...

Warm conditions across the area today with good southwesterly flow,
as low pressure moves east across the Great Lakes region, with a
cold front eventually sagging south into the area late tonight. Much
of the area will be dry in the near term period, with a dry air
mass/low RH in place, but dew points will gradually increase,
particularly across northern zones as we get later in the
day/evening hours. Showers and storms are expected to develop as the
front sags south into the area, with the bulk of activity in our SE
Ohio zones, possibly surviving into adjacent WV counties. Timing of
front and storm development is late, generally after 22Z, and there
is some concern as to how much convection is able to organize and
thus survive in terms of severity once it reaches our counties. SPC
does maintain a slight risk across far northern zones, and there is
a concern for evolution of storms into bowing clusters of
convection, which would carry a wind and isolated tornado threat
with it. But, as storms progress south into reduced instability,
they should generally die out as they get closer to the Ohio River
vicinity.

After this evenings convection, most of the area should be dry and
quiet overnight. The frontal boundary will continue to slowly sag
south into our area, briefly stalling out on Monday, where it will
be the focus for isold showers or even a storm on Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

A front stalled over the area will push northward as a warm
front on Tuesday, providing a good chance of showers and
thunderstorms. This will also push afternoon temperatures well
above normal for this time of year, with readings in some
locations of the central and southern lowlands reaching into the
lower 80s. Some models are showing fairly decent surface based
CAPE (over 1600 at CRW on the meso NAM) with a freezing level in
the 10000 to 11000 range. Can`t rule out some afternoon hail
south of the front. The front will push north of the region
Tuesday evening, leaving the entire area in the warm sector.
This will create a very mild night, with most of the lowlands
remaining in the 60s.

Chances for showers and thunderstorms will increase even more Wednesday
and Wednesday night, with a weak cold front pushing through
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 245 AM Monday...

Slightly cooler air can be expected on Thursday behind a weak
cold front. A reinforcing cold front will then push through
Friday or Friday night, depending on the model of choice. Either
way, even cooler temperatures can be expected for the weekend.
What remains uncertain is how quickly the cold air moves in,
whether frontal moisture remains over the area as an upper level
short wave moves through, and the timing of that short wave.
This leaves a low confidence in the weekend forecast, especially
in the precipitation department.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Monday...

A convectively reinforced cool front sinks slowly southward through
the day today and will be the primary focus for firing of additional
storms this afternoon and evening. Predominately VFR conditions are
expected through the daylight hours with localized reductions
likely in heavier showers and thunderstorms.

Winds mainly westerly around 10KTs, except gusty and erratic
near thunderstorms.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and placement of convection will
need fine tuning based on position of the effective boundary
this afternoon.



EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 04/15/24
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in thunderstorms Wednesday afternoon and
night.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 250 AM Monday...

**Flooding Continues Along the Ohio River today Monday**

Water from the Thursday`s heavy rain event continues to work
into the mainstem rivers. While flood waters have receded from
much of the area, flooding continues along portions of the Ohio
River. Flooding is currently occurring from Marietta down to
near Point Pleasant. Additionally, backwater flooding from the
Ohio River on the connecting tributaries will continue to
produce water over some roadways, even miles away from the Ohio
River.

Please visit water.noaa.gov for specific river observations and
forecasts.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JP/SL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JP

HYDROLOGY...