103
FXUS61 KRNK 131038
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
638 AM EDT Mon May 13 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will move off the coast this evening. A warm front
lifts north through the southeast Tuesday followed by a cold
front Wednesday. This will bring periods of showers and a few
thunderstorms to the area. High pressure arrives briefly
Thursday before another low pressure system tracks in from the
lower Mississippi Valley Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 244 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry with increasing high clouds today.

2) Rain moves in late tonight.

Dry weather today as high pressure heads offshore. Already seeing
some thin cirrus starting to move across our area early this
morning, and during the day, the high clouds will become more opaque
blotting out the sunshine at times. Still enough solar insolation to
bring high temperatures to at or slightly above normal with most in
the 70s.

Tonight, upper trough tracks into the lower MS Valley with southwest
flow aloft over our area. Warm front in place across the Gulf Coast
states, will send moisture up along the mountains/foothills of NC by
late evening then surging through the rest of the area by Tue
morning. Showing some good isentropic lift along the 300-305K
surfaces overnight. Getting some model differences as to
placement of best lift/qpf. Leaning toward along/east of the
Blue Ridge with the higher pops but most of the area will see at
least a 70+ percent chance of having measurable rain by dawn,
but generally less than a quarter of an inch, with up to half
inch possible along the southern Blue Ridge into the NC
foothills. Airmass will likely be stable to prevent any
thunderstorms late tonight. With cloud cover and warm advection
lows tonight will be milder with 50s areawide.

Forecast confidence is greatest on temperatures and sky cover/wind,
and average on qpf/pops overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms possible Tuesday.
2. Dry weather returns Thursday.
3. Near normal temperatures through midweek.

A surface low pressure system approaches the area from the west
Tuesday, and high pressure moves offshore. Broad southerly flow
at the surface and southwesterly flow aloft will draw moisture
into the area from the Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico, and rain
showers will become more widespread Tuesday. The warm front
lifts northward and the surface low tracks closer to the area
Tuesday, and instability will increase the chances for
thunderstorm development, with the greater probabilities for
storms in the west, closer to the surface low. However, thinking
ample cloud cover throughout the day will limit daytime
heating, and thus limit the potential for storms to become
severe. Rainfall amounts through Wednesday are between three
quarters of an inch to just about an inch and half. Locally
heavy rainfall is possible from this system, as precipitable
water values exceed the 90th percentile relative to climatology
Tuesday into Wednesday, so there is potential for localized
flash flooding, especially in areas that have received recent
rainfall.

Shower and storm chances continue into Wednesday, as moisture wraps
around the low as it tracks through the Mid Atlantic. By early
Thursday morning, 500mb ridging builds back into the area, in
response to another trough deepening over the Rockies and western
US. A drier airmass fills into the area behind the front, reducing
shower and storm coverage for Thursday.

Temperatures will generally be near normal for this forecast period,
cloud cover keeping overnight lows on the mild side, in the 50s and
60s. High temperatures will gradually warm through the period, with
Thursday looking to be the warmest day, highs near 80 in the
Piedmont, and in the low to mid 70s in the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Showers and storms possible again Friday, lingering into the
weekend.
2. Near to slightly above normal temperatures.

Mid level ridging will slide east of the area through Friday, with
flow aloft turning more southwesterly. Another surface low pressure
will approach the area from the west, bringing the next chance for
widespread showers and thunderstorms. As noted in the previous
discussion regarding this system, deterministic models continue to
show differences in timing and placement of the heaviest
precipitation from this system, with some suggesting greater
precipitation to the north and to the south of area, and others
showing a broad axis of heavy rain across much of the eastern US,
although better agreement in showers reaching the area by at least
Friday afternoon and continuing into Saturday. That being said,
confidence is lower in the forecast for the end of the workweek.
Thinking the potential for storms Friday is lower than the middle of
the week system, since the upper trough is not quite as strong, the
base of the ridge farther north of the area compared to the Tuesday
system.

Upper ridging and surface high pressure move back into the eastern
US by Sunday as the low moves off the coast, decreasing coverage of
any lingering precipitation.

Sunday looks to be the warmest day of this forecast period, with
high pressure overhead. Cloud cover and rain will keep Friday and
Saturday cooler, but generally temperatures will be near normal.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 635 AM EDT Monday...

Going to be VFR through this evening. Anticipate increasing
high clouds today, lowering to a mid deck this evening.
Rain and sub-VFR cigs and some sub-VFR vsbys impact all sites by
12z Tue. A light/calm wind this morning will be coming from the
south at 5-10kts by 15-17z Monday.

High confidence this forecast period.

 Extended Aviation Outlook...

Rain showers and sub-VFR ceilings and visibilities persist at
times through midweek, through sub-VFR will not occur all the
time. Thursday should return to VFR most areas with some
lingering MVFR possible in the mountains. More sub- VFR likely
Friday with another storm system with showers/storms.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...WP