711
FXUS63 KSGF 291907
AFDSGF

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Springfield MO
207 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Some flooding persists across the area from the several days
  of repeated heavy rain.

- Additional thunderstorm chances start to move back into the
  area Tuesday night.

- The unsettled weather pattern will persist into the weekend
  with additional thunderstorm chances...the potential of severe
  weather...and more flooding.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Synoptic overview and current conditions: Upper level analysis
and water vapor imagery show the upper low lifting northeast
over Minnesota early this afternoon with the next wave pushing
into the Pacific northwest region. Surface front has pushed into
the far eastern CWA and some convection was refiring in a narrow
band along the front over Oregon county in our far southeastern
CWA. This was in an area of 500-1000 j/kg ML CAPES. Overall, not
expecting a severe risk with this activity. Surface temperatures
were ranging from the upper 60s to low 70s with dew points in
the upper 40s to mid 50s behind the front and the low 60s along
and ahead of the front.

Ongoing flooding: The repeated rounds of heavy rain over the
past 5 days which brought widespread areas of 3 to 5 inches of
rain, and a more significant area of 7 to 10 inches of rain has
caused some flooding to occur over many of the area creeks and
rivers along with low lying areas. The hardest hit areas still
have rivers in the moderate to major flooding category, some of
which will persist over the next few days and possibly longer
given the forecast outlook.

Tonight: The cold front will slowly work its way through the
remainder of the CWA during the rest of the afternoon into the
early evening with scattered convection continuing over mainly
Oregon county until the front clears the area. High pressure
will continue to push in behind the front with a light and
variable wind and clear sky overnight. With a saturated ground
from the recent heavy rain, we could see some fog develop,
especially closer to the frontal boundary over far southern
Missouri into south central Missouri and will include some fog
chances there. Lows tonight are expected in the low to mid 50s.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Issued at 207 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Thunderstorm chances return Tuesday night: Much of the day
Tuesday should remain dry. High pressure over the area tonight
will shift east of the area on Tuesday with a southerly low
level flow beginning again which will draw moisture back into
the area. The main upper level storm track will remain northwest
of the area over the northern plains, however a front will push
into the plains on Tuesday and then our western CWA on Tuesday
night. CAPE/Shear combos during the afternoon do favor some
convection developing to our west during the afternoon with the
potential of severe storms. Some remnant storms will be possible
Tuesday night which will affect mainly our western CWA. This
does include a marginal risk of severe storms(level 1/5) and
also would bring some heavy rain to areas already flooding so it
will also carry a risk of excessive rainfall. Some lingering
convection will be possible into Wednesday

Unsettled conditions Wednesday night through the weekend: The
active weather pattern looks to persist at least into the
upcoming weekend. While the main upper energy and jet stream
will be to our north and west, we`ll likely see convection
develop in the plains and drift into at least the western CWA. A
frontal boundary looks to push through Thursday into Thursday
night which will offer the most widespread chances of convection
to the area(60-85%). With it will come the chance for heavy
rain, flooding, and some stronger to possibly severe storms.


&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 1211 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

For the 18z TAFS, sky has cleared out at SGF/BBG with some
stratus as of 17z still at BBG. The stratus should continue to
clear at BBG and should be cleared out by 18z or 19z. VFR
conditions are expected through much of the forecast period.
With a light and variable wind and clear sky tonight, may see
some fog redevelop especially at BBG and will put a tempo MVFR
group in there from around 09-12z.

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Lindenberg
LONG TERM...Lindenberg
AVIATION...Lindenberg