Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA
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729 FXUS64 KSHV 300223 AFDSHV Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Shreveport LA 923 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Except for the lone supercell thunderstorm that produced up to golf ball sized hail in McCurtain County earlier this evening, the forecast is in pretty good shape attm. Did remove evening pop that was inserted across our far northwest zones to account for this lone convection. Skies are clearing across our eastern half and given the clear skies, light winds and wet soils, we are likely going to see widespread fog overnight. Some of this will be dense but not confident on just where the most dense fog will be so will forgo a Dense Fog Advisory attm. Forecast min temps are in the ballpark and forecast update is out as well. 13 && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Tuesday Night) Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Weak upper-level ridging to prevail through the short-term period allowing for dry conditions areawide. Light and variable winds overnight to remain light and out of the southeast around 5 mph on Tuesday due to a relaxed pressure gradient across the region. High temperatures are forecast to climb into the 80s on Tuesday, falling into the low to mid 60s on Tuesday night. With light southerly flow, a weak surface boundary lingering a across the region, and a moist airmass in place from recent rainfall, fog may be an issue tonight. For this forecast package, went ahead and made mention of widespread fog areawide tonight. /05/ && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through next Sunday) Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Southerly flow to increase on Wednesday as the pressure gradient tightens across the region. Additionally, with near zonal flow aloft, moisture to increase allowing for mostly cloudy skies areawide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible during the afternoon along a lingering frontal boundary that is forecast to lift north with high temperatures in the warm sector behind the front to climb into the mid 80s. A surface low across the Central Plains will lift northeast on Thursday leaving a frontal boundary in its wake that will push south across the ArkLaTex on Thursday night bringing another round of widespread convection across the region. Impulses moving downstream within a southwest upper-flow pattern interacting with a remnant frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex will maintain a chance for scattered convection through the remainder of the work week into the weekend. Storms producing locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day. /05/ && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR prevailing across area terminals this evening as skies begin to clear out. Terminal winds will decouple this evening, with many turning calm overnight. Given the abundance of moisture still present locally, clearing skies, and calmer winds, T/Td relations will be close, thus supporting IFR/LIFR VSBY with terminal vis forecast to fall below 1SM. Terminal conditions should recover locally through the morning as VSBY and morning BR/FG burns off. Expecting a CU field to evolve by the mid to late afternoon, with mainly SCT/BKN sub FL100. RK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... SHV 64 87 66 88 / 10 10 10 40 MLU 64 84 62 87 / 10 0 0 30 DEQ 58 85 61 85 / 10 0 0 30 TXK 62 86 64 87 / 10 0 0 30 ELD 60 85 61 88 / 10 0 0 30 TYR 62 86 66 85 / 10 10 0 40 GGG 62 87 66 86 / 10 10 0 40 LFK 63 87 67 85 / 10 20 10 50 && .SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AR...None. LA...None. OK...None. TX...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM....05 AVIATION...53