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000
FXUS64 KSJT 162348
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
648 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 101 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Early this afternoon, a dryline/Pacific front was situated over
far southeastern counties and will drift east of the area this
afternoon. This will be short lived, as low level moisture returns
across east and southeast counties overnight into Wednesday
morning. The dryline will re-establish itself over east and
southeast sections by Wednesday afternoon. Some of the CAMS are
developing some convection along the dryline late tomorrow
afternoon and evening. While confidence remains fairly low for
storms to develop tomorrow, given the signature in the CAMS, will
add low POPs across east and southeast sections late tomorrow
afternoon and early evening.

Temperatures will be mild again tonight, with lows in the upper
50s and low/mid 60s, warmest across the southeast. Temperatures
will be well above normal tomorrow, with highs mainly in the lower
90s, although some mid 90s will be possible across portions of
the northwest Hill Country.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through next Tuesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

Ahead of a dryline Wednesday evening, the area east of a Cross
Plains to Menard to Roosevelt line will have a slight chance of
thunderstorms Wednesday evening. On Thursday, a strong cold front
will move south across the Big Country in the mid-to-late afternoon.
Timing of the frontal passage will affect highs north of I-20, but
generally expecting upper 80s and lower 90s across the Big Country.
South of the front, with compressional warming effects, south-
southwest winds and considerable sunshine, temperatures will soar
into the mid 90s for much of the area, with a few upper 90s
anticipated in the Concho Valley.

The cold front will push south across the rest of our area Thursday
evening and early Thursday night. With this front, our eastern and
southeastern counties have a low to medium chance (20-40 percent) of
showers and thunderstorms. In an environment with strong instability
but weak effective bulk shear, a few strong to severe storms will be
possible generally southeast of a line from Cross Plains to Eldorado
to southeastern Crockett County.

In the wake of this frontal passage, temperatures will be much
cooler across the northern half of our area Friday, and to a lesser
extent in our southern counties. Cloud cover will increase by Friday.

Temperatures will be much cooler over the weekend as the cooler air
gets reinforced with a fairly strong (for this time of year) surface
high building south across the Plains. Skies will be mostly cloudy
to cloudy with somewhat breezy north to northeast winds. An
overrunning setup will develop with upper level disturbances
tracking east across the area. After a chance of showers and
thunderstorms Friday night, our area will have likely showers and a
few elevated thunderstorms Saturday into Saturday night. Heavier
rainfall will be possible during this time. Rainfall amounts of 0.50
to 1.5 inches will be possible, although this is a preliminary look.
A lingering chance for mainly showers will continue into the day
Sunday. Sunday looks to be the coolest day with highs in the upper
50s to mid 60s.

Weak northwest flow aloft over our area Monday is progged to become
Quasi-zonal Tuesday. Cloud cover could linger into Monday morning,
but should decrease in the afternoon as a little drier air filters
into the area. Temperatures will be warmer Monday, with a return to
southeast and south winds, and highs getting back into the 70s.
Warmer for Tuesday with mostly sunny to partly cloudy skies and
increasing south winds. Highs Tuesday look to be close to normal and
mostly in the 80-85 degree range.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 640 PM CDT Tue Apr 16 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening and much of the
overnight period. Low clouds will move into our southern
terminals around 5 or 6 tomorrow morning, bringing MVFR CIGs to
KJCT, KSOA, and KBBD. Brief periods of IFR CIGs are possible at
KJCT and KSOA. Ceilings are expected to lift in the mid morning,
leaving VFR conditions for the rest of the day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     60  91  66  93 /   0  10  10  10
San Angelo  60  93  66  98 /   0  10  10  10
Junction    65  97  68  97 /   0  20  20  20
Brownwood   62  89  65  92 /   0  20  20  30
Sweetwater  61  90  65  92 /   0   0   0  10
Ozona       61  90  67  94 /   0  10  10  10
Brady       65  90  68  94 /   0  20  20  30

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION...AP