448
FXUS64 KSJT 290815
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
315 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

A benign short-term forecast is on tap for the area as zonal flow
in the upper levels moves overhead. Some scattered low clouds and
patchy fog will be possible early this morning mainly across the
Heartland and NW Hill Country with low level moisture return
slowly working its way back into the area. However, this moisture
is very shallow and should mix out by mid morning, leaving mostly
sunny skies across the area for much of the day with light winds
generally out of the southwest. High temperatures will climb above
average into the mid 80s to low 90s.

As a surface low takes shape well to our northwest in the Central
Rockies, winds will back more to the southeast tonight with a
minor tightening of the pressure gradient, leading to slightly
increased wind speeds across much of the area. This shift to the
southeast will allow for a more robust return of low level
moisture into the area. The increase in low level moisture could
potentially bring low clouds back for many locations south of the
I-20 corridor by daybreak. With the potential for increased cloud
cover and moisture, overnight lows will be on the mild side in the
low to mid 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday will become
increasingly southwest by Wednesday afternoon, and into next
weekend. Under this pattern, upper level shortwaves will pass over
the area embedded in the upper level flow. This will allow for
periodic afternoon and evening precipitation chances, mainly in
the form of isolated to scattered thunderstorms.

On Tuesday, weak shortwave energy will move through, so isolated
development is expected along a tightening dryline just west of
the area. While most of this activity should weaken shortly after
sunset, there is a chance that some of these storms could make it
as far east as our central counties. There is a Marginal Risk for
severe storms for areas generally west of a Brownwood to Sonora
line. Large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be the main
potential hazards.

Wednesday, southwesterly flow increases, and a more organized
shortwave is progged to move over the area. With that in mind,
PoPs are in the 20 to 40 percent range generally during the
afternoon and evening timeframe. Once again, some of these storms
may be capable of strengthening to severe levels, with large hail,
and damaging wind gusts being the main concerns. The
precipitation chances continue into Thursday as additional
shortwave energy moves over the area, while a cold front is
expected to move into and through the area Thursday night into
Friday, providing a potential focus for convection.

The forecast is less certain by next weekend as global models
diverge in their solutions, but the pattern is expected to remain
somewhat active, with the cold front moving back to the north as a
warm front interacting with active southwest flow aloft.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR conditions currently present across the area with light and
variable winds. Scattered low clouds are expected to build west
overnight, primarily impacting the KJCT and KBBD terminals. Have
included some TEMPO groups to account for some uncertainty in
ceiling coverage and potential visibility reductions. Any drops in
ceilings/visibilities will lift to VFR by mid morning with VFR
conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon. Winds will
generally be out of the south/southwest this afternoon at less
than 10 kts before backing to the southeast and picking up at some
sites late in the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     87  63  90  67 /   0   0  10  10
San Angelo  90  63  92  66 /   0   0   0  10
Junction    91  64  93  68 /   0   0   0  10
Brownwood   85  61  87  67 /   0   0   0  10
Sweetwater  87  64  91  66 /   0   0  20  20
Ozona       88  64  88  68 /   0   0   0  10
Brady       86  62  88  68 /   0   0   0  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...50