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000
FXUS64 KSJT 171757
AFDSJT

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Angelo TX
1257 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today and tonight)
Issued at 236 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

Low level moisture making a return to West Central Texas early
this morning with dewpoints surging back into the 60s to near 70.
This moisture will continue northwest into the Big Country and
Concho Valley this morning before starting to mix out some as a
dryline develops for the afternoon. Lots of high clouds overhead
that may end up inhibiting mixing and sharpness of the convergence
along the dryline this afternoon. Latest HRRR does how a few
isolated storms late this afternoon and into the evening, while
other CAMs are not quite so generous. Will go ahead and mention
some isolated POPs possible, especially since CAPE values may
reach3000 j/kg across portions of the Heartland and Hill Country
ahead of the dryline.

Otherwise, another warm to hot day with temperatures climbing into
the lower 90s across the area. Moisture surges back northwest
this evening and dewpoints will climb back into the 60s tonight,
helping keep overnight lows mild.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 318 AM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

It will be Warm Thursday, with southwest to west compressional
downslope winds...ahead of cold front moving into the Big Country in
the afternoon. Highs in the 90s expected in most areas, with the
warmest in the upper 90s in the Concho Valley. Highs in the Big
Country will range from the mid/upper 80s in the Haskell and
Throckmorton counties to mid 90s along I-20...as the front moves
through I-20 around 3 PM CDT. Besides the above normal heat, the
main concerns are isolated severe storms, mainly Thursday late
afternoon/evening in eastern counties, as the atmosphere will be
unstable ahead of the front. GFS MUCAPES are up to 2500 J/K in
eastern zones at 7 PM Thursday. SPC Day 2 severe weather outlook
has a marginal risk of severe storms along and southeast of an
Albany...Abilene...San Angelo...Ozona line, with a slight risk in
eastern Brown and San Saba counties. Large hail and damaging winds
possible.

Friday night into Saturday night, a fairly strong overrunning
pattern develops over cooler air at the surface. Main concern will
be locally heavy rainfall, which at the same time, be beneficial for
much of the region. Isolated thunderstorms possible, but instability
appears too weak to support severe storms at this time. Drier then,
early through the middle of next week as moisture is shunted to the
southeast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1251 PM CDT Wed Apr 17 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through this evening, with MVFR
ceilings expected to develop across the southern terminals
after midnight (07Z-09Z). Expect MVFR ceilings lingering through
15Z Thursday, before scattering out to VFR. Isolated convection
is possible across the southern terminals late this afternoon and
early evening, with the best chance near KSJT. Will add VCTS to
the forecast for KSJT for a few hours this evening. Expect light
winds the next 24 hours.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Abilene     66  91  55  66 /  10  20  10  10
San Angelo  66  98  60  73 /  20  10  20  20
Junction    68  97  63  83 /  10  20  30  10
Brownwood   66  91  58  69 /  10  30  30  10
Sweetwater  66  91  54  63 /   0  10  10  20
Ozona       66  94  63  78 /  10  10  20  30
Brady       68  94  61  72 /  20  30  30  10

&&

.SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...07
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...24