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000
FXXX10 KWNP 191231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 19 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 19-Apr 21 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 19-Apr 21 2024

             Apr 19       Apr 20       Apr 21
00-03UT       2.33         2.00         3.00
03-06UT       1.33         1.00         3.67
06-09UT       4.33         2.00         2.67
09-12UT       4.33         1.00         2.67
12-15UT       4.67 (G1)    2.67         2.00
15-18UT       3.67         2.67         2.00
18-21UT       2.67         3.00         3.00
21-00UT       2.67         3.00         2.00

Rationale: An isolated period of G1 (Minor) storm conditions is expected
on 19 Apr due to CME activity.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2024

              Apr 19  Apr 20  Apr 21
S1 or greater   20%     20%     20%

Rationale: There is a slight chance for S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm
conditions over 19-21 Apr due to the flare potential of several active
regions on the visible disk.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Apr 19 2024 0453 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 19-Apr 21 2024

              Apr 19        Apr 20        Apr 21
R1-R2           75%           75%           75%
R3 or greater   20%           20%           20%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) events are expected, with a slight
chance for R3 (Strong) or greater events, over 19-21 Apr due to the
flare potential of several active regions on the visible disk.