647
FXUS64 KTSA 010524
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1224 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 905 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A line of severe thunderstorms was progressing south this evening
near the OK-KS border. Further to the west of the FA, discrete
supercells had formed along the now retreating dryline in W OK.
While these more discrete cells are not expected to impact E OK,
the aforementioned line will continue to work into NE OK this
evening and overnight. Storms in our CWA may be strong to severe,
with primarily a risk for damaging winds and large hail. Low
potential for brief tornado cannot be ruled out for any storms
that manage to remain somewhat ahead of the line this evening...
however the much larger threat will be from damaging straight line
winds associated with any bowing segments. Severe chances will
tend to decrease further into the night.

Otherwise, as storms sag southward, boundary orientation will
also favor training of storms with increasing flash flood
potential late this evening and overnight. A Flood Watch remains
in effect for the northern row of counties through tonight. The
only significant changes for the evening update was to expand/
increase PoPs to match current trends and cover the potential for
precip to spread further south and east than currently forecast
tonight. Remainder of the forecast remains on track at this time.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Through Tonight)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Currently, a nice and sunny afternoon across most of the region is
leading to warm afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s with breezy
southerly winds gusting around 30mph across portions of northeast
Oklahoma. A few showers have also been tracking across northeast
Oklahoma and into northwest Arkansas within a zone of weak
isentropic ascent. The focus for this period will be on storm
chances beginning late this afternoon and through the overnight
hours tonight. A cold frontal boundary sits to our northwest
across Kansas, while a dryline extends southward from south-
central Kansas into western Oklahoma which will serve as the focal
points for storms development later this afternoon. A warm moist
airmass ahead ahead of the boundaries will lead to large
instability across the region, with MLCAPE values of 2000-3000
J/kg common across parts of northeastern Oklahoma. While synoptic
support will be lacking, a weak shortwave trough and mid level jet
will move along the Oklahoma/Kansas border through the evening
hours. This should allow for at least a few storms to initiate
along the dryline in western Oklahoma this afternoon and shift
eastward into the evening hours. These storms will likely weaken
toward and after sunset, but may encroach on areas west of Highway
75 by early evening with at least some severe potential...mainly
large hail and strong wind gusts. The greater coverage of storms
across our region is expected this evening and overnight as the
frontal boundary sage southward. More widespread storm
development is expected as the shortwave overspread the frontal
boundary. LArge instability and modest deep layer shear would
support some severe threat along the OK/KS border this evening
with initial storm development. Very steep mid level lapse rates
will support large hail as the main threat, though damaging winds
will also be a threat. A very low, but non-zero tornado risk could
evolve for a couple hours during the early evening when storms
could be more discrete.

Heavy rainfall will be another concerns with storms tonight into
Wednesday morning. Mostly zonal flow aloft combined with the
east-west orientation and slow movement of the frontal boundary
will likely lead to training of storms along and near the OK/KS
border through much of the night. Therefore, a Flood Watch has
been issued for the northern row of counties through mid morning,
with possible extension further south as trends develop. As the
cold pool organizes later tonight from continued convection, a
southward push of the boundary and convection to near the I-44
corridor is likely, though the severe threat will be waning by
that time as instability weakens overnight. some areas will
likely see 1 to 3 inches of rain overnight, with some localized
totals of 4 to 5 inches possible by mid tomorrow morning.

Bowlan

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Tuesday)
Issued at 217 PM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

An extended period of unsettled weather looks likely as we head
into May across the region. Westerly to southwesterly flow aloft
will dominate through the next week, while a warm and moist
airmass continues across eastern Oklahoma and western Arkansas.
Storms will be ongoing Wednesday morning along an outflow
boundary, with continued threat for locally heavy rainfall as
storms move over the same areas. Convection should weaken as the
morning wears on, with some lingering showers possible into the
early afternoon hours. Another chance for storms will arrive late
Wednesday into Thursday morning as storms which initiate on the
dryline grow upscale and move eastward across the state overnight
Wednesday. At least some severe potential will exist with this
activity, though the timing will limit the severe potential to
mainly strong wind gusts, with the best chances across the
southern part of the forecast area.

Additional development is also likely later Thursday into Friday
morning as a cold front moves through the area. More widespread
coverage of storms is expected during this time, with severe
potential again still possible. The degree of severe potential
will depend on how convection from the previous night evolves and
if the atmosphere can sufficiently recover in time for a more
robust severe event. Chances for showers and storms will continue
through the weekend, as the frontal boundary stalls and remains in
the vicinity. Severe chances will increase south of the front,
where a more unstable airmass will reside, while more general
shower and storm chances will continue north of the boundary.

Bowlan

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 AM CDT Wed May 1 2024

Scattered thunderstorms are in the vicinity and will continue at
times through the night for the northeast OK TAF sites.
Temporarily reduced visibility and low CIGs are possible under any
storms. The main impacts will be heavy rain, gusty erratic winds,
and frequent lightning, but localized hail is possible as well. In
the next hour or so these storms will also spread into the TAF
sites in northwest AR with similar effects. CAM guidance is
inconsistent on how far south these storms will spread, but
impacts may also spread into KMLC and KFSM after about 10Z or so.

Storm activity should diminish after sunrise with breezy southeast
winds but otherwise good aviation conditions for most of the day
Wednesday, though there is a 10-20% chance of a pop up storm just
about anywhere during the day. Storms may again approach the area
from the west in the evening. Some low level wind shear may
develop Wednesday evening but confidence is too low to include in
the TAFs at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   81  66  78  59 /  50  30  70  60
FSM   86  66  79  64 /  20  20  80  70
MLC   83  66  78  63 /  40  40  90  70
BVO   79  63  78  55 /  50  40  90  60
FYV   83  64  78  59 /  20  10  70  70
BYV   83  65  77  60 /  30  10  70  70
MKO   81  64  76  61 /  40  30  80  60
MIO   80  65  77  58 /  30  20  80  70
F10   81  65  77  61 /  40  40  90  70
HHW   82  65  75  64 /  20  50  90  60

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for OKZ054>059.

AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...04
LONG TERM....04
AVIATION...06