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000
FXUS64 KTSA 250546
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of tonight)
Issued at 939 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Showers and isolated thunderstorms are slowly increasing across
parts of southeast Kansas and far northeast Oklahoma. This trend
is expected to continue overnight, with eventual development
farther to the southwest expected. Storm intensities will also
increase later tonight, with at least a marginally severe hail
threat developing with the strongest storms. Have adjusted pops
over the next few hours, with the rest of the forecast on track at
this time.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tomorrow through Wednesday)
Issued at 224 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Active weather pattern will persist through much of the weekend,
with multiple rounds of severe weather possible, as well as
increasing heavy rain and flooding potential. Saturday, mainly
evening and overnight, still the featured period for significant
severe weather. Forecast details will continue to be updated in
the coming days.

Fairly widespread convection will continue north of the warm
front Thursday through at least the morning, if not into
afternoon, though waning low level jet support should eventually
allow precip to decrease. By late afternoon, strong negatively
tilted upper shortwave is forecast to cross the Rockies with low
level moisture continuing to spread north east of sharp dry line
over the Panhandles. Any dry line storms will most likely remain
to our west, but a strong signal remains for additional storms to
develop across west TX Thursday night as the Pacific front moves
east. This should eventually spread into north OK by very early
Friday morning. Upper low will be lifting northeast into the
Central Plains, but wind fields remain rather strong, with some
degree of severe threat continuing into Friday morning. Later
Friday more uncertain as storms from the morning could re-
intensify to some degree. As of right now, the dry line/cold front
should remain west of the area, but no strong indications of re-
development near these features noted.

A second potent and negatively tilted upper system is expected to
move across the Southwest and into the Southern Rockies Saturday
setting up a pattern very favorable for severe weather. This
system should also be more favorably timed. Dry line will retreat
back to the west in response by late Saturday, likely becoming the
focal point for development of severe storms. Strong deep layer
wind fields will also be very supportive of all modes of severe
weather. One complicating factor that has been present in some of
the global models (ECMWF especially) is for a weak cap to allow
early initiation of storms, possibly before 18z in western OK/TX,
which could have a mitigating effect on instability. In any case,
forecasts for Saturday afternoon, and especially evening and
overnight should be monitored very closely not only for severe
weather but heavy rainfall and flooding potential as well.

The trend in models remains a slower overall progression of the
Pacific front as the low moves northeast. This lends confidence to
keeping high chances of storms through Sunday, though the severe
potential is more questionable by then. By Monday, most of the
deep moisture should be pushed southeast, with generally tranquil
weather into mid-week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1246 AM CDT Thu Apr 25 2024

Scattered to overcast mid clouds are forecast to give way to MVFR
ceilings late tonight/early Thursday morning as additional
showers/storms develop and move into the CWA. Will continue with
Tempo groups for timing of greater thunder potential into mid
morning. Behind the showers/storms a period of scattered to broken
MVFR to low end VFR ceilings are forecast through the afternoon
hours. The exception to this looks to be far Northwest Arkansas
where MVFR ceilings are forecast through the end of the TAF
period. By Thursday evening...MVFR ceilings are forecast to
overspread the CWA again with additional chances for
showers/storms. Winds through the period start out east to
southeast and become southeasterly during the day with increasing
intensity. KFSM should remain the exception where easterly winds
continue through the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   63  80  67  84 /  90  70  10  60
FSM   63  77  67  84 /  50  90  50  50
MLC   67  78  68  82 /  70  90  20  60
BVO   60  81  64  83 /  90  70  10  60
FYV   59  75  63  81 /  70  90  50  50
BYV   56  73  64  81 /  60  90  50  40
MKO   62  76  66  81 /  80  90  20  60
MIO   59  75  65  81 /  90  90  20  50
F10   66  79  67  81 /  90  80  10  60
HHW   66  74  66  80 /  40  90  30  40

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....14
AVIATION...20