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000
FXUS64 KTSA 241709
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
1209 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(The rest of today )
Issued at 1033 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The potential for showers and storms increases across much of
the area this afternoon, mainly to north of a nearly stationary
boundary that is currently across southeast Oklahoma. A combination
of weak isentropic lift and a weak mid-level shortwave will be responsible
for this shower and storm activity. Dry air in the lower levels of
the atmosphere will prove to be a limiting factor in shower/storm
coverage this afternoon. Have adjusted temperatures upwards slightly
for today. Otherwise, current forecast for today is on track.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tonight through Tuesday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

As stronger warm advection/low level jet develops tonight, a few
clusters of strong to marginally severe storms are likely across
portions of northeast Oklahoma, especially after midnight into
Thursday morning. With some spread in the CAM solutions, exact
locations and coverage is still somewhat uncertain, however a few
swaths of heavy rainfall will be possible with any storms that
train over the same areas into Thursday morning.

Additional storms are likely Thursday night, especially along/north
of I-44 as strong mid level low lifts into the central Plains.
Again at least some severe threat is expected including the potential
for heavy rainfall. Forecast remains challenging regarding storm
evolution into Friday and will likely depend on timing and how
much destabilization occurs ahead of main convective development.
Very strong wind profiles in association with mid level speed max
are expected during the day Friday and any pockets of greater
instability would likely have a more enhanced threat for rotating
storms.

Dry line stalls Friday night west of area with a very moist/unstable
air-mass expected into Saturday ahead of another robust upper low
lifting northeast into Kansas. Again severe weather appears likely,
which could transition to a heavy rain/flash flooding threat into
Saturday night, which both GFS/ECMWF solutions suggest. Another
round of strong/severe storms could redevelop across SE OK/NW AR
Sunday before cold front finally pushes southeast of the area
Monday morning.

Specific severe threats will continue to be refined over the next
few days, including areas that have the greatest threat for heavy
rainfall. Flooding could become a concern, especially Saturday
night into Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The current VFR conditions will gradually worsen as we move
through tonight and into Thursday morning. The potential for
showers and storms to impact area sites will increase tonight
and continue into Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   59  72  64  81 /  60  90  80  80
FSM   59  72  64  76 /  60  80  40  90
MLC   63  77  65  79 /  60  60  70  90
BVO   54  71  61  81 /  80  90  90  70
FYV   54  69  60  74 /  60  90  50  90
BYV   54  64  57  74 /  70  90  50  90
MKO   59  72  63  78 /  60  80  70  90
MIO   55  67  61  76 /  80  90  80  90
F10   59  75  65  80 /  60  70  80  80
HHW   64  77  66  75 /  30  20  30  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...08
LONG TERM....12
AVIATION...10