Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Albany, NY

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FXUS61 KALY 220802
AFDALY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Albany NY
402 AM EDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slowly moderating
temperatures through Tuesday. The next chance for widespread
rainfall arrives late Tuesday and continues into Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
High pressure will remain over the region today resulting in
another sunny and seasonable day. Temperatures should average a
few degrees warmer than yesterday, with many locations warming
into the upper 50s and lower 60s, with lower 50s in the higher
elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Another quiet and chilly night is in store as high pressure
remains centered over the forecast area, leading to strong
radiational cooling. Temperatures look to fall back into the 20s
and lower 30s, averaging 5 to 10 degrees below normal for this
time of year.

High pressure will begin to shift east Monday night into
Tuesday as the next system approaches the area. This will bring
an increase in clouds throughout the day but should remain dry.
Increased southerly flow will usher in even warmer temperatures
by Tuesday afternoon with highs likely a few degrees warmer than
today, in the mid 60s. There could be a few isolated showers
late in the day, especially west of the the Capital District.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Our recent tranquil weather will come to an end for the mid
week period.

Strong model consensus continues with southern Plains cut off low
slowly tracking east-northeast until strong short wave from Alberta
Canada arrives and assists with steering this system northeast. This
will spread clouds and periods of rain overnight Tuesday and into
Wednesday.  As moisture transport vectors will originate from the
Atlantic as v-component of the H850 wind magnitudes approach 2-3
standard deviations from the southeast.  While PWAT anomalies are
only about 1 standard deviation above normal, these southeast winds
suggests portions of the Catskills will have the potential to have
heavier rainfall amounts than the rest of the region.

As this system lifts northeast, surface low reflection is expected
along the mid-Atlantic coastline through Wednesday then become
nearly vertically stacked across New England Thursday.  This will
keep the threat for showers across most of the region.

A short wave ridge is forecast for the end of this week (Thursday
night into Friday) as we should have a mainly dry day.  However,
next upstream system is quickly approaching as we head into the last
weekend of April with a renewed threat for showers.

Temperatures through the period will likely average below normal
with precipitation at or above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Ideal flight conditions with VFR in the forecast through this
TAf forecast cycle. High pressure with a dry air mass with
nearly clear skies will continue through Sunday.

Winds will be light and variable then be north-northwest during
the daylight hours Sunday around 5-10 kt.

Outlook...

Sunday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: High Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Wednesday: High Operational Impact. Pds RA.
Wednesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Likely SHRA.
Thursday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
High pressure will bring dry weather and slowly moderating
temperatures through Tuesday.

Relative humidity values will drop to 25 to 35 percent this
afternoon and Monday afternoon, and recover to 70 to 100 percent
tonight and Monday night.

Winds will will be variable at less than 15 mph through tonight,
then south at 15 mph or less Monday.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rivers and streams continue to slowly recede from heavier
rainfall earlier this week.

Dry weather is expected today through Tuesday with a moderating
trend in temperatures which will allow for some snowmelt in the
mountains. The next chance for widespread precipitation mainly
in the form of rain will arrive late Tuesday and continue
into Thursday.

For details on specific area rivers and lakes, including
observed and forecast river stages and lake elevations, please
visit the Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service /AHPS/ graphs
on our website.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KL/NAS/JVM
NEAR TERM...JVM
SHORT TERM...JVM
LONG TERM...BGM
AVIATION...BGM
FIRE WEATHER...JVM
HYDROLOGY...NAS/JVM


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