Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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FXUS62 KCAE 261055
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
655 AM EDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will move through the area tonight into
early Friday. High pressure will build across the region this
weekend into early next week bringing dry weather and seasonable
temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
Upper low currently over Arkansas will move east across
Mississippi, Alabama, and northwestern Georgia today. Associated
surface low will be slightly out ahead of the upper low. This
system will bring a warm frontal boundary north through the area
this morning, while the attendant cold front approaches the
region from the west through the day. Surface heating combined
with a cool pool aloft and weak instability will produce
convection ahead of the surface low and front. Have slowed down
the timing a bit based on high- resolution model output with
activity generally arriving after 20Z. The Storm Prediction
Center has most of the area outlooked for a marginal risk of
severe storms. 0 to 6 km shear appears moderate to strong. Hail
and locally damaging winds are the primary threats. Model
soundings show a cap during the afternoon which will be a
limiting factor. Despite mostly cloudy skies this afternoon,
expect high temperatures to rise into the middle to upper 70s
given warm air advection ahead of the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
The main upper and surface lows are forecast to move through
the area during the night. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
will be possible for much of the the night before diminishing
towards Friday morning. Can not rule out a few lingering showers
early Friday before drying moves in.  The atmosphere will dry
out Friday night as another trough of low pressure crosses the
area.

Highs on Friday in the mid 70s. Overnight lows will be in the
mid 50s to around 60 tonight, then in the lower 50s Friday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Really not much change for the longer term forecast. Dry weather
still expected to prevail into the middle of next week. A broad
upper level trough over the eastern CONUS will slowly move off
the coast into Monday. Models indicting upper ridge will finally
begin to build into the easter portions of the country by the
middle of next week, bringing warmer temperatures to the area.
Daytime highs in the mid and upper 70s will moderate to the
lower 80s by midweek. Overnight lows will be in the upper 40s
and lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR conditions are expected for a majority of the 24-hr TAF
period outside of showers and thunderstorms.

A low pressure system will approach the area from the west
today and move through the region tonight. A warm front will
lift northward across the area this morning, with the main cold
front swinging through tonight. Moisture and clouds will be on
the increase today ahead of the approaching system. Convection
is expected to develop late this afternoon and continue through
tonight, with chances diminishing early Friday morning as the
system lifts away from the area. Have included VCSH at 23Z at
CAE/CUB/AGS/DNL and 02Z at OGB, but still some uncertainty
regarding exact timing. Will continue to monitor and update as
confidence in exact timing of the system improves. Models
indicate potential for lower ceilings developing overnight so
have included MVFR ceilings at CAE/CUB at 06Z and 09Z at
AGS/DNL.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
A low pressure system may bring restrictions early Friday.
Otherwise, no significant restrictions to aviation expected
through Monday.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

$$


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