Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, SC

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FXUS62 KCHS 252156
AFDCHS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston SC
556 PM EDT Wed Apr 25 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure will pass by to the west and then north of the
area Thursday into Thursday night. Mainly dry cold fronts will
then move through Friday night and again Saturday night
followed by high pressure through early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/...
There are no issues for the overnight period. Diurnal cumulus
will dissipate after sunset leaving mostly clear skies. The
boundary layer will decouple later this evening yielding calm to
light/variable winds. Lows form the mid 50s inland to the lower
60s at the beaches look on track. Made minor adjustments to
hourly temperatures for the early evening update.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Low pressure will pass by to the north and west on Thursday as a
weakening upper low moves from the Lower Mississippi Valley to the
southern Tennessee Valley and then into the Southern Appalachians.
Strong deep layer shear and low to moderate instability will support
organized convection across the Deep South which will move into the
Central Savannah River Area and eastern Midlands during the mid to
late afternoon. Thus, rain chances will increase from the west
during the afternoon and continue into the evening with the best
chances likely toward the CSRA, Midlands and Pee Dee. Can`t rule out
a few stronger storms later tomorrow afternoon into the early
evening, mainly across inland portions of our forecast area.
Damaging winds look to be the main hazard from the storms but large
hail will be possible as temperatures cool aloft and wet bulb zero
heights lower. Rain will end from south to north Thursday night as
the low moves toward VA and a weak cold front pushes through the
local area. Another weak cold front will approach Friday and push
through Friday night but moisture will be limited and thus rain
chances will be very low. Slightly drier conditions are then
expected Saturday ahead of another cold front but temperatures will
likely be a bit warmer given the downslope, offshore flow.
Temperatures overall will be near normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
No rain is expected through at least the middle of next week.
Surface high pressure will build from the north this weekend. Then,
the surface high will shift south over the region as an upper ridge
builds over the region by early next week, and this regime will then
prevail through the week. As the surface high migrates south,
persistent onshore flow will commence later this weekend and will
continue next week. Thus, temperatures will remain close to normal
for late April/early May, featuring highs in the upper 70s/lower 80s
inland and upper 60s/lower 70s on the beaches and lows in the 50s
inland/60s at the coast.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR.

Extended Aviation Outlook: VFR through Mon except for possible
restrictions due to low clouds and/or showers Thursday night.

&&

.MARINE...
Tonight: The pressure gradient will relax overnight with winds
dropping below 10 kt by late evening.

Thursday through Monday: No significant issues this period with a
few weak cold fronts expected to push through each night through
Saturday night. High pressure will then prevail through early next
week.

&&

.CHS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$



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