Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dodge City, KS

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076
FXUS63 KDDC 202139
AFDDDC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
439 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Overview: A potent shortwave digging ashore the northern/central
California coast today/tonight and amplify into a closed low over
central/southern California during the day Monday. Downstream -
W-SW flow aloft will prevail over the Central Plains.

Today and Tonight: An amalgamation of small amplitude waves
(including MCVs spawned by a massive nocturnal MCS in the Southern
Plains) were noted over OK and eastern portions of KS this
afternoon - progressing northeast in southwest flow aloft. A
relatively cool/dry surface airmass will remain in place over the
region - in assoc/w high pressure (centered over the Dakotas)
extending southward through the Central/Southern Plains. With a
cool/dry airmass in place and overwhelming subsidence on the
western periphery of the aforementioned waves tracking northeast
from OK into eastern KS, expect dry conditions to prevail.

Monday and Monday night: A surface trough will develop in the lee
of the Rockies on Monday as southwest flow aloft strengthens over
the Intermountain West, in advance of an upper level low
progressing inland toward southern Nevada. Low-level southerly
return flow will gradually strengthen during the day in western
TX, eastern NM, and southern CO - advecting modest low-level
moisture beneath steep mid-level lapse rates - aiding in diurnal
destabilization and the development of scattered convection during
the late afternoon in northeast NM and southern CO. Isolated
convection could propagate downstream into extreme southwest KS
Monday evening, however, unfavorable diurnal timing and a less
favorable thermodynamic environment with eastern extent suggest
such activity will wane within a few hours of sunset.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Sunday)
Issued at 200 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

Long range guidance suggests that the upper low progressing ashore
CA today/tonight will stall over the Intermountain West and
gradually dissipate by mid-late week as an upper level ridge
strengthens over the Southern/Central Plains. With the above in
mind, expect a warming trend and a decreasing potential for
convection as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Monday evening)
Issued at 435 PM CDT Sun May 20 2018

MVFR ceilings will linger at the HYS terminal through the
remainder of the afternoon - though VFR conditions are expected
to return later this evening. Elsewhere, VFR conditions are
expected to prevail through the TAF period. Initially North winds
at 10-15 knots will become light/variable this evening/overnight.
Winds will strengthen from the south during the day Monday,
reaching 15-20 knots with gusts up to 25-30 knots by late Mon
afternoon into Mon evening.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  52  81  62  85 /   0  20  10  20
GCK  52  83  60  85 /   0  20  10  20
EHA  54  82  59  82 /  10  20  20  20
LBL  56  83  61  84 /   0  20  20  30
HYS  48  80  62  86 /   0  10  20  10
P28  55  83  63  87 /  10  10  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...VINCENT
LONG TERM...VINCENT
AVIATION...VINCENT



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