376
FXUS63 KDVN 081748
AFDDVN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Quad Cities IA IL
1248 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- MRGL risk for severe storms today.

- An active pattern continues through early next week with
  chances of showers and storms every 24 to 36 hours.

- Below normal temperatures are expected Thursday through
  Saturday with a warming trend starting early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Today and Tonight: Upper low will be situated in nw IA vcnty so
we will have a spin in the atmosphere. Sunshine will boost
afternoon temperatures well into the 70s to around 80. This will
yield MLCAPE of around 1000 J/kg, along with sufficient shear
(30-35 kt) and steepening lapse rates due to a cold pocket near
-20C at H5. CAM`s develop numerous showers and at least
 scattered thunderstorms across much of the forecast area later
 this afternoon and continuing through much of the overnight
 hours. SPC has a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for the entire
 forecast area, with a Slight Risk in southern Hancock and
 southern McDonough counties. However, that small area is on the
 northern fringes of a significant severe weather outbreak from
 the mid MS Valley to the Mid South with the CAM`s keeping the
 worst of this activity well to our south.

Severe potential in the Marginal Risk area includes hail,
damaging winds to around 60 mph, and frequent lightning. Also
there is a low probability (2%) of a tornado or two west of the
MS River. In addition, PWAT`s increase to 1 to 1.50 inches so
any thunderstorm will produce locally heavy rainfall. As of now,
the NAMNEST suggests some locations may pick up 1+ inches of
rainfall with slower moving storms. However, the NBM overall has
most areas receiving less than an inch. We`ll see.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Issued at 315 AM CDT Wed May 8 2024

Thursday: The upper low basically weakens and gets absorbed into
a trough that drops southward into the Midwest. Forcing from the
trough and sufficient moisture will keep occasional showers and
a few thunderstorms going for much of the day. A cold front will
also be passing through the area with a north wind 10 to 20 mph.
Along with extensive cloud cover this will be a much cooler day
with highs in the 60 to 65 range.

Friday through the weekend: Pattern change to a northwest flow
as a deep trough sets up shop across the Great Lakes. Periodic
disturbances in the flow will bring off and on showers and a few
thunderstorms with chance pops every 24 to 36 hours.
Temperatures will be on the cooler side with highs in the 60s
and lows in the 40s to around 50.

Early to mid next week: Another pattern flip to a deep trough
diving into the Northern Rockies and then into the Plains. This
will warm our temperatures well into the 70s to lower 80s.
Also, chances for thunderstorms will also be on the increase.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed May 8 2024

VFR conditions are expected through 00 UTC ahead of a storm
system moves into the area after 00 UTC. Showers and
thunderstorms are forecast to develop this evening with showers
prevailing after 04 UTC and continuing through the remainder of
the period. Conditions will slowly deteriorate to MVFR by 06
UTC from northwest to southeast with IFR after 09 UTC. The
heaviest rainfall is forecast to fall overnight. Winds will veer
from easterly this afternoon to northerly after 09 UTC.

&&

.DVN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...None.
IL...None.
MO...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Haase
LONG TERM...Haase
AVIATION...Cousins