Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Eureka, CA

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403
FXUS66 KEKA 222157
AFDEKA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Eureka CA
257 PM PDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will maintain partly cloudy skies and
dry conditions through early next week while temperatures will be
slightly above normal in the inland areas. Mid to late week an
upper level low approaching the area will bring cooler temperatures
and the chance for showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...With high pressure still in place a chance for
frosty conditions again across interior valleys exits. Did not
issue a frost advisory as some high clouds may help mitigate the
temps falling low enough to reach criteria (33-36). This combined
with some airmass warming and slightly higher thickness values.
Thus daytime inland highs will be a little warmer possibly
reaching the mid 80s tomorrow. By tuesday the high pressure
starts to move off to the east as an upper level low starts to
approach the area. Dry weather is expected to continue, but
stratus may return along the coast. Wednesday the upper level
continues to move towards the coast. The ECMWF is slower with the
progression of this than the GFS. The ECMWF solution would keep
temperatures on Wednesday nearly as warm as Tuesday and the area
would stay dry, while the GFS starts the cooling trend and brings
some showers to the area. Generally took a blend of the solutions,
but would favor the slower ECMWF solution as models often try to
move a closed low like this through too quickly. Thursday and
Friday there is general model agreement that the low will stall
just offshore. This would bring temperatures back to near or below
seasonal normals and some light rain showers are possible.
Coastal stratus is likely as well. Saturday there is some general
agreement that an upstream system will start to push it out of the
area, but the exact direction remains in question. Current model
runs have some showers over the area on Saturday. Thunderstorms
are possible as this upper level low moves overhead, but due to
the uncertainty in the timing and track of this low have not added
them to the forecast yet. Overall there is lower than normal
confidence in this pattern. MKK/JT


&&

.AVIATION...Fairly quiet weather continues for northwest California
this afternoon. A few high clouds are passing currently passing over
Mendocino County and looking at satellite, a few more are on the
way. I think this may hinder low cloud development tonight; however,
there is a slight possibility that a few could develop along the
Humboldt and Del Norte County coasts. Overall, expect VFR conditions
to continue tonight with the possibility of MVFR if low clouds
form.


&&

.MARINE...The forecast remains on track this afternoon as northerly
winds continue to increase. Buoys are currently reporting sustained
northerly winds of 15 to 25 kt with gusts up to 30kt. The strongest
of these winds are being reported near Pt. St. George, Cape
Mendocino and Point Arena. These conditions will gradually weaken
through the evening with all of the area`s winds falling to Small
Craft Criteria around midnight. Overall, conditions will continue a
gradual improving trend through mid-week with winds shifting to
light southerly by week`s end. NW swell trains will continue to
traverse the area through the period. KR/SEC


&&

.EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ450-455.

     Hazardous Seas Warning until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ450-455.

     Gale Warning until midnight PDT tonight for PZZ470-475.

&&

$$

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