Area Forecast Discussion
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808
FXUS64 KEPZ 261152
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
552 AM MDT Thu Apr 26 2018

.SYNOPSIS...
Temperatures will climb a few degrees above normal today, but the
warmer weather will be short-lived. A strong backdoor cold front
will blast through the area late tonight, bringing strong wind
gusts, especially along west-facing mountain slopes in southern
New Mexico and Far West Texas overnight. Winds could gust over 50
mph in parts of West El Paso, Hudspeth County, and the Otero Mesa.
Winds will slowly diminish over most of the area Friday morning,
but gusty conditions will shift to near the Arizona border.
Temperatures on Friday will fall back into the 70s again. Some
widely scattered thunderstorms will be possible late Friday and
Saturday thanks to a slight increase in moisture. But dry and warm
conditions will return early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
High pressure over Texas continues to bring easterly low level
winds to the area, along with a modest increase in low level
moisture. A building upper level ridge will shift over AZ/UT
today, while a sharp shortwave trough moves from CO into the Texas
Panhandle.

The ridge will help boost our temperatures back up above normal
today, but the trough will scrape by eastern NM this afternoon and
evening, sending a strong backdoor cold front into the area
overnight. Conditions continue to look favorable for strong E to
NE winds tonight into Friday morning, with the NAM and GFS
indicating 45 to 50 knots in the around 850 to 800 mb over parts
of El Paso county starting around midnight, and a wide area of 40
knots across southern Otero and all of Hudspeth County, extending
westward across southern Dona Ana County. Will go ahead and hoist
a Wind Advisory for 9 PM tonight through 9 AM Friday morning for
all of Far West Texas, southern Otero and southern Dona Ana
Counties. The strongest winds (gusts 50 to 55 mph) will be along
west- facing slopes, including parts of the Otero Mesa south of
the Sacramento Mountains. A gust or around 60 mph can`t be
completely ruled out. Will also need to keep an eye on areas
around Lordsburg Friday morning for marginal Wind Advisory
criteria and potential blowing dust.

Behind the front, temperatures on Friday will drop into the 70s
over most of the lowlands, with conditions around El Paso and Las
Cruces not unlike what we had yesterday (Wed).

Models continue to trend down on the precip threat Fri and
Saturday. Hard to imagine a few days ago, the GFS was plastering
over 2 inches of QPF over parts of the Gila. At this point, it
looks like light precip with dry lightning strikes being the main
risk. Kept a slight chance of storms mainly west of the Rio Grande
Friday afternoon and evening, spreading to a wider area (but
favoring the higher terrain and areas east of the Rio Grande) on
Saturday.

Sunday and Monday still look dry and breezy with southwest winds
returning to the area. Dewpoints could drop back into the 10s over
the Gila Region. Obvious concern here is dry winds fanning the
flames of any fire starts, particularly with the lightning risk
Fri/Sat.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 26/12Z-27/12Z...
VFR conditions and light winds will prevail today, with some
increasing high level moisture bringing thickening cirrus during
the afternoon. A strong backdoor cold front will push into the
area overnight, bringing strong E toNE winds especially to the
west-facing slopes of mountain ranges in south-central New Mexico
and Far West Texas. Even at east-slope sites like ELP, gusts
around 30 knots will be possible. The front will reach ELP between
03Z and 04Z, and quickly pushing as far west as DMN between 04Z
and 06Z. Winds should diminish over most of the area after 12Z
Friday, especially away from west-facing slopes, but gusts 25 to
30 knots will be possible in far SW New Mexico into Friday
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Light winds will prevail today, but a strong backdoor cold front
will arrive Thursday night, bringing strong E to NE winds to Far
West Texas and south-central New Mexico, spreading into far SW New
Mexico during the day on Friday. Temperatures will drop below
normal behind the front, and a modest increase in moisture will
lead to MinRH values on Friday in the 20 to 25 percent range in
most areas. There will be a slight risk for a stray dry
thunderstorm over the Gila Region tonight, ahead of the front, but
the risk for isolated thunderstorms will increase Friday afternoon
and again on Saturday as the cooler airmass modifies, but easterly
flow continues to supply some modest low level moisture.

Dry southwest winds and above-normal temperatures will return
Sunday and Monday, with critical fire weather conditions possible,
especially on Monday as RH values drop into the single digits
again.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 87  55  76  59 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           85  52  73  53 /   0   0   0  10
Las Cruces              85  55  75  55 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              83  52  74  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              61  36  56  36 /   0   0  10   0
Truth or Consequences   85  54  76  54 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             78  50  71  49 /   0  10  10  20
Deming                  86  56  75  53 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               84  57  79  53 /   0   0  10  20
West El Paso Metro      86  58  74  59 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               87  48  76  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            88  56  77  56 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              82  47  72  50 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  88  52  76  51 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            86  54  75  56 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          83  59  74  60 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           84  53  75  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   87  56  77  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                87  57  77  53 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               82  57  75  57 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 73  37  64  44 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               70  37  65  41 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                70  35  62  36 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 80  37  71  39 /   0   0  20  20
Hillsboro               83  50  74  49 /   0   0  10  10
Spaceport               84  52  75  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            77  37  71  32 /   0  10  20  20
Hurley                  80  49  71  47 /   0   0  10  20
Cliff                   83  44  78  35 /   0  10  10  20
Mule Creek              82  51  77  42 /   0  10  20  20
Faywood                 82  49  71  48 /   0   0  10  10
Animas                  85  58  81  52 /   0   0  10  20
Hachita                 86  56  79  50 /   0   0  10  10
Antelope Wells          85  58  80  53 /   0   0  10  10
Cloverdale              81  57  79  51 /   0   0  20  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     NMZ411-413-417.

TX...Wind Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM MDT Friday for
     TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

25/25



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