Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KEWX 221747
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1247 PM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018

.AVIATION... /18Z TAFS/
Vfr skies will continue for the next 24-30 hours with only a few mid
to high level clouds spilling into TX from Mexico. Surface high
pressure will spill gradually SE across TX with north winds becoming
less gusty by late this afternoon, and some variable but mainly
light NE breezes in the early evening along I-35. Late tonight some
drainage breezes turn winds more NW along I-35, followed by daytime
mixing of more northerly winds for Monday. At DRT, the winds turn
more easterly by Monday morning as the surface ridge begins eroding
from the west.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 403 AM CDT Sun Apr 22 2018/

SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A cold front continues to move southward into the coastal plains
early this morning. Behind the front, northerly winds and cooler
temperatures can be found. Current readings range from near 50 in the
Hill Country to the upper 60s in the coastal plains.

Northerly winds will remain in place today, keeping afternoon high
temperatures slightly below climatological normals for late April. We
will keep the forecast dry today with surface high pressure in place.
An upper level disturbance will move across central Texas this
evening and some of the hi-res models show low potential for a shower
along the Rio Grande. For now, we will not mention any precipitation
as the sub-cloud layer should be dry enough to prevent any
precipitation from reaching the ground.

Surface high pressure begins to weaken and move eastward on Monday.
Temperatures will warm a few degrees, with highs generally in the
80s.

LONG TERM (Monday Night through Saturday)...
Dry weather along with above normal high temperatures are in store
for Tuesday. We should see a return of southerly flow in the low-
levels to most areas along with highs in the mid 80s to near 90. The
above normal warmth is not expected to last long as another cold
front is forecast to move into the region on Wednesday. The
operational GFS and ECMWF are showing some timing differences with
this front. For now, we will side with the faster GFS given there
should be fairly deep northwest flow aloft in place across the plains
states. We will also keep a low chance for isolated to scattered
showers and storms in place Tuesday night into Wednesday night as the
cold front and shortwave embedded in northwest flow aloft move
through the region.

Southerly low-level flow briefly tries to reestablish on Thursday
before another cold front moves in on Friday. The operational models
are again showing some timing and strength differences with this
front, with the GFS trending slower and also drier. With northwest
flow aloft in place, we prefer the faster frontal timing of the
ECMWF. The models also differ with regards to the amount of
precipitation associated with the front. The ECMWF remains wettest,
followed by the Canadian and the much drier GFS. We will keep rain
chances low for Thursday night and Friday and await a little better
agreement among the models before boosting rain chances.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              54  81  57  87  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  51  82  54  86  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
New Braunfels Muni Airport     52  82  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
Burnet Muni Airport            50  79  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  10
Del Rio Intl Airport           58  85  62  93  65 /  -    0   0  -   20
Georgetown Muni Airport        50  80  54  86  58 /   0   0   0   0  10
Hondo Muni Airport             53  83  57  89  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Marcos Muni Airport        51  83  55  87  59 /   0   0   0   0  -
La Grange - Fayette Regional   51  80  56  84  60 /   0   0   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       56  82  59  88  61 /   0   0   0   0  -
Stinson Muni Airport           57  83  58  88  62 /   0   0   0   0  -

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

Mesoscale/Aviation...Oaks
Synoptic/Grids...09
Public Service/Data Collection...33


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.