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000
FXUS62 KMLB 250225
AFDMLB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Melbourne FL
1025 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

...New UPDATE, AVIATION, MARINE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

The day closes a little warmer than yesterday, with highs
increasing a few degrees to the U70-L80s, but otherwise a
similarly quiet day, including the smoke from prescribed burns in
a few places. The ridge axis from high pressure extending from the
western Atlantic into the Gulf of Mexico has settled across
central Florida, where it will remain for a bit. Light east-
southeasterly winds down south from Stuart to Lake Okeechobee veer
as you go north, becoming southerly southerly then southwesterly
along and north of the I-4 corridor tonight. Given the weak
pressure gradient, calm and variable winds will be possible from
the overnight until the sea breeze develops and pushes inland once
again Thursday. Overnight lows in the U50s inland, except the
urban core of Orlando that creeps up to the L60s. While most of
the coastal corridor will be in the 60s, a few lo

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFs)
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

VFR conditions prevail through the TAF period. Erly winds around
10 kts this evening from the ECSB diminish to 5-10 kts and veer to
S-SE tonight, before likely becoming light and VRB late tonight.
Light winds continue into Thursday until the ECSB develops INVOF
the coastal terminals around 15-16Z, switching winds back to E-NNE
at 5-10 kts, then further increasing a bit to around 10 kts with a
few gusts at 21Z. The ECSB is forecast to arrive at KMCO/KSFB/KISM
around 21-22Z, and KLEE 23Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1025 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Tonight...Favorable boating conditions as the ridge axis of high
pressure extending from the western Atlantic into the Gulf of
Mexico settles across central Florida. Winds 5-10 kts generally
SE-SSE south of Sebastian Inlet, and SSW-SSE to the north. Seas
3-4 ft, possibly up to 5ft in the Treasure Coast segment of the
Gulf Stream.

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Tonight-Thursday...A surface ridge axis in place becomes stretched
across the western Atlantic as a surface boundary slides southward.
Moisture gradually increases Thursday with modeled PWATs near 1" in
the afternoon. An east coast sea breeze is forecast to develop,
with a few fair weather cumulus clouds developing ahead of and
along the boundary. No precip is expected. Morning low
temperatures will range in the upper 50s to low 60s, falling a
few degrees cooler across rural locations. High temperatures
remain near seasonal values in the low to mid 80s. A few spots
across the far interior could climb into the upper 80s.

Friday-Sunday... Upper level ridging across the eastern US will
remain in place through the weekend. Surface high pressure across
the eastern CONUS on Friday will shift eastward through the weekend,
moving just offshore on Saturday night, and sliding southward
through the day on Sunday as a vertically stacked low pressure
system moves northward towards Nova Scotia. Locally, easterly flow
will dominate with breezy conditions developing into the weekend,
gusting 20 to 25 mph, perhaps up to 30 mph at the immediate coast.

Dry conditions will continue over land areas through the period,
with isolated showers possible in the far offshore waters of the
Atlantic into this weekend. Mostly sunny skies are forecast on
Friday, with partly cloudy skies developing in the weekend as
moisture increases across the area. Temperatures will be in the low
80s along the coast, and mid to upper 80s across the interior on
Friday, with temperatures in the low 80s across the coast and low
to mid 80s across the interior Saturday and Sunday. Overnight
lows will be in the mid to upper 60s Friday and Saturday nights,
and low to mid 60s on Sunday night.

Monday-Tuesday... Upper level ridge across the eastern CONUS on
Monday will slowly shift eastward and just offshore through early
week. Surface high pressure off the Carolina coast will remain in
place while slightly shifting southward. Locally, onshore flow will
persist, with speeds increasing to around 12 mph each afternoon. Dry
conditions will remain in place, with no mentionable rain chances
through the period. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny with
temperatures on a slight warming trend. Afternoon highs will be in
the low 80s across the coast, and low to mid 80s across the interior
on Monday, and low 80s east of I-95 and mid to upper 80s west of I-
95 on Tuesday. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 60s.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 326 PM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Tonight-Thursday...Favorable and dry boating conditions will
continue throughout the period. SE winds of 5-10 knots, then veering
more southerly at 3-8 knots tonight. Winds become easterly at 5-10
knots across most of the forecast region by Thursday afternoon,
primarily over the nearshore waters. Consistent seas of 3-4 feet
during this period.

Friday-Monday... High pressure ridge will dominate the local area
into early next week. Onshore flow around 15 KT on Friday will
become breezy overnight and increase to 15-20 KT in the nearshore
waters and 20-25 KT in the offshore waters with gusts of 25-30 KT
possible on Saturday. Winds will then decrease to 15-20 KT across
all the waters on Sunday, and 10-15 KT on Monday. Seas of 2-3 ft on
Friday will steadily increase this weekend, becoming 5-6 ft Saturday
and Sunday before decreasing to 4-5 ft on Monday. While mostly dry
conditions are forecast to persist, isolated light showers will be
possible in the offshore waters on Saturday and Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 320 AM EDT Wed Apr 24 2024

Thursday-Friday...Relative humidity values fall to around 30 to 35
percent inland again on Thursday, recovering a bit into the upper
30s to mid 40s on Friday. Easterly winds remain light, at or
below 10 mph Thursday, increasing to 10-15 mph on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB  59  83  63  81 /   0   0   0   0
MCO  61  87  63  86 /   0   0   0   0
MLB  61  80  65  81 /   0   0   0   0
VRB  60  82  63  82 /   0   0   0   0
LEE  62  85  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
SFB  60  86  63  85 /   0   0   0   0
ORL  62  86  64  86 /   0   0   0   0
FPR  60  82  62  81 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
&&

$$

Haley/Fehling