Area Forecast Discussion Issued by NWS Nashville, TN
000
FXUS64 KOHX 291027
AFDOHX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Nashville TN
527 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
Surface high in place across the deep south this morning. Ridging
extends ne across eastern TN. Skies are clear with light winds.
Temperatures have dropped and range from the upper 30s south to
lower 40s north. Spreads are rather low so we could pick up on
some patchy frost especially across our south come sunrise. Will
need to add some patchy frost across our south with the upcoming
grids/zones issuance.
Today, look for that surface high to move eastward with the upper
level trough pulling eastward as well. This will equate to a
substantial warmup and those winds will swing around to the ssw.
The upper pattern will quickly morph toward a zonal regime with a
west to east frontal boundary camping out a good distance to our
north. A strong upper system will begin to dig across the western
U.S. by Sunday. This will prompt some upper ridging across our area
with temps getting warmer. At any rate that boundary should remain
locked up to our north.
For the near term temps, a definitive warming trend is upcoming.
We`ll get into the 70s the next 2 days. Then, we could see close to
80 degrees for Sunday. By that time, low temps will climb back into
the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday Night through next Friday)
Issued at 205 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
In the extended forecast, Monday looks innocent enough with the ul
ridge in place and the w-e boundary still to our north. This will
change though as some strong energy aloft will drop southward out of
Canada. That aforementioned frontal boundary will then quickly move
our way and through the area on Tuesday. Some good instability will
be in play during the day with showers and thunderstorms expected.
North-south frontal extension seems to be better organized to our
east on Wednesday as the ul energy catches up. At any rate, we are
outlooked on our Day 6 so this next Tuesday will be our next
severe weather threat.
Behind the boundary, latest models showing that stronger nearly
closed off upper low across the eastern U.S. This could bring
showers and much cooler temperatures for Wednesday. Although,
cluster data over the last few days is not all that consistent
with the upper low reaching that far south. Latest NBM data
showing only a slow cooling trend with our extended numbers and
this seems reasonable at this point.
For the extended temps, it will be quite warm initially with near
80 for highs and lows in the 60s. Cooler behind the Tuesday fropa.
We could see 30s again for lows next Wednesday night.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 526 AM CDT Fri Mar 29 2024
VFR conditions will continue today with increasing cirrus clouds
through the TAF period. Light south winds this morning will
increase and veer more southwesterly after 15Z with speeds 5-10
knots.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Nashville 72 53 78 59 / 0 0 0 10
Clarksville 72 52 76 59 / 0 10 0 10
Crossville 66 46 71 54 / 0 0 0 10
Columbia 72 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
Cookeville 67 49 72 56 / 0 0 10 10
Jamestown 66 48 71 55 / 0 0 10 20
Lawrenceburg 70 51 76 57 / 0 0 0 0
Murfreesboro 72 51 77 57 / 0 0 0 0
Waverly 71 53 76 59 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.OHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...21
LONG TERM....21
AVIATION.....Shamburger