Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sacramento, CA

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620
FXUS66 KSTO 232130
AFDSTO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sacramento CA
230 PM PDT Mon Apr 23 2018


.SYNOPSIS...
Mainly dry and warm most of this week except for a chance of a
few showers or thunderstorms over the mountains each day starting
Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION (Today through Thursday)...

Ridge of high pressure will continue to bring seasonably warm
conditions across interior northern California for the rest of the
afternoon. Temperatures across the valley were a bit warmer than
24 hours ago in the upper 70s to lower 80s. Skies were mostly
clear with some cumulus development over the Sierra.

Ridge of high pressure will shift eastward as a large scale upper
level trough will approach the coast Tuesday. This trough will
bring enough instability to create some afternoon showers and
thunderstorms for the Sierra crest under southwest flow aloft
each afternoon through Thursday. Temperatures will start a
gradual cool down across the forecast area through Thursday,
although readings will still be above average.

&&
.EXTENDED DISCUSSION (Friday THROUGH Monday)

Extended period will be characterized by large closed upper level
low. As is typical with this type of pattern, there`s still a lot
of run-to-run model variability and differences in solutions for
the end of the week into the weekend. Therefore, not much
confidence in exactly how widespread precipitation or convective
chances might be heading into next week. At this point, the best
chances will be over the mountains and during the
afternoon/evening hours as instability is diurnally enhanced. May
see a few showers in the valley during the period but again,
confidence is low. Regardless, should see cooler temperatures for
Friday into the weekend with valley highs back down into the low
to mid 70s. CEO

&&

.AVIATION...

VFR conditions at the TAF sites the next 24 hours. Winds 10 kts
or less.
&&

.STO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$



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