Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Atlanta, GA

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2
302
AXUS72 KFFC 011715
DGTFFC
GAC009-011-013-015-021-023-035-045-047-053-055-057-059-063-067-077-
079-081-083-085-089-091-093-097-107-111-113-115-117-121-123-125-129-
133-135-139-141-143-145-149-151-153-157-159-163-167-169-171-175-187-
193-195-197-199-207-209-211-213-215-217-219-221-223-225-227-231-233-
235-237-247-249-255-259-261-263-265-269-271-279-281-283-285-289-291-
293-295-297-301-303-307-309-311-313-315-317-319-032300-

Drought Information Statement for North and Central Georgia
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1215 PM EDT Thu Mar 1 2018

...SEVERE DROUGHT ENDS OVER NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA...
...IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...
...THIS IS THE FINAL DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT...


SYNOPSIS...

North and central Georgia has remained in a wet and active period
over the last two weeks, with prolonged periods of wet conditions.
As a result of above normal rainfall amounts, significant
improvements to the drought area have continued over the state.
Drought conditions have ended entirely over much of north Georgia,
with areas of Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions
remaining over far northwest Georgia and most of central Georgia.
Some expansion of the Moderate Drought area were made in central
Georgia where rainfall amounts were not as high.

With continued improvement expected, and with the end of Severe
Drought conditions, this will be the final Drought Information
Statement.

Over the last two weeks, multiple waves of precipitation have
impacted the area, often only separated by one to two days, keeping
soils moist and weekly rainfall totals high. Isolated river flooding
has occurred as a resulted of this persistent rain. Climate site
rainfall deficits continue to improve, with percent of normal values
for the 90-day period ranging from 61 to 108 percent, and for the 30-
day period ranging from 75 to 159 percent.


SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS.
Recent rainfall over the last two weeks, particularly over far north
Georgia, has continued to improve drought conditions over the state.
The shallow moisture profile ranges from Abnormally Moist to
Excessively Wet due to these high rainfall amounts. The deeper soil
moisture profile has continued to be Near Normal over the state.

Two weeks ago, the official Drought Monitor removed Severe Drought
conditions in Georgia entirely. Additional improvements were made
this week, with only Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions
over northwest Georgia, generally north and west of a line from
Cedartown, to Rome, to Chatsworth. Abnormally Dry conditions
surround the Moderate Drought area, but were scaled back to now
include areas north of a line from Rockmart, to Calhoun, to Eton.

A second Moderate Drought area continues in central Georgia,
generally an area bordered by a clockwise line from Columbus, to
Thomaston, to Sandersville, to Byromville, to Americus. Surrounding
this region is an area of Abnormally Dry conditions that covers most
of middle/central Georgia. The area of Moderate Drought has been
expanded eastward from the previous issuance due to less significant
rainfall totals.

RIVER AND STREAM FLOW CONDITIONS.
Average stream flows for the last 14-days are running normal to much
above normal over north Georgia - generally 26 to 95 percent of
normal streamflow, particularly north and west of the I-85 corridor.
The lowest streamflows were south of this line, with generally 5 to
41 percent of normal streamflow. Real-time ground water conditions
have improved from two weeks ago, but locations central and south
Georgia were only reporting less than 10 to 24 percent of normal.
Several groundwater locations in north Georgia were running normal
to high due to the recent heavy rainfall. Please note that creeks
and smaller rivers can change quickly due to runoff from heavy rain
if it occurs.

FIRE DANGER HAZARDS.
The latest fire danger assessment indicates a Low Risk over large
portions of north Georgia. South of a line from Columbus, to Macon,
to Washington is in a High to Very High risk, particularly over the
Milledgeville area. Please note that this assessment can change
rapidly due to changes in moisture levels and rainfall received.

CLIMATE SUMMARY...

Over the last two weeks, 0.10 to 6 inches of rainfall have occurred
over north and central Georgia. The highest rainfall amounts were
observed over far north and northwest Georgia, generally north of a
line from Summerville, to Dawsonville, to Helen. In this area 3 to 6
inches of rainfall occurred, or 110 to 300 percent of normal. The
lowest rainfall amounts fell over portions of east central Georgia,
generally east of a line from Washington, to Eastman, to Uvalda. In
this area, only 0.10 to 0.25 inches of rain occurred, or 10 to 25
percent of normal. In between these areas, rainfall amounts were
0.50 to 3 inches, or 25 to 90 percent of normal.

Given that portions of the state have been affected by the short
term drought, the following table has been provided below. This
indicates the total rainfall and departures for the last 90 days.

Location    Total Rainfall   Normal    Departure     Percent
               90 Days       Value    from Normal   of Normal

ATLANTA         13.75        12.77       +0.98        108%
ATHENS          13.16        12.26       +0.90        107%
COLUMBUS         7.71        12.56       -4.85         61%
MACON            8.89        12.69       -3.75         70%
CARTERSVILLE    13.03        13.74       -0.71         95%
NE ATLANTA      10.26        13.97       -3.71         73%
WEST ATLANTA    10.21        13.16       -2.95         78%
GAINESVILLE     12.05        14.40       -2.35         84%
PEACHTREE CITY  11.39        13.24       -1.85         86%
ROME            13.64        14.07       -0.43         97%


HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY AND OUTLOOK...

Current lake levels at several USACE Projects have continued to stay
near seasonal pool levels. Projects ranged from -2 feet low at
Thurmond to nearly 3 feet above seasonal pool at Carters. The
elevation at Lake Lanier, at 1070.6 feet, is the highest elevation
observed since early May 2016.

Pool levels are expected to stay near the seasonal pool levels over
the next four weeks. At this point in the year, the USACE projects
will be in the final months of winter pool levels, or will begin
filling lakes to their summer pool elevations, depending on their
locations. The target guide curve values are included below as
`seasonal pool` levels for reference.

Lake        Seasonal Pool   Current Level   Departure
                               (7 AM)        in feet
Allatoona       830            830.49         +0.49
Carters        1072           1075.05         +3.05
Hartwell        658            657.70         -0.30
Lanier         1070           1070.61         +0.60
Thurmond        328            325.91         -2.09
West Point      629            629.80         +0.80

Additional lake levels are available at the link provided in the
RELATED WEBSITES section below.

PRECIPITATION/TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

For March...the outlook for north and central Georgia is for equal
chances of above or below normal temperatures. Above normal chances
of precipitation is expected for areas north of a line from
Columbus, to Macon, to Augusta, and equal chances for above or below
normal chances of precipitation for areas south of this line.

90 Day Outlook...for March through May...above normal temperatures
and equal chances of above or below normal precipitation are
expected, except above normal precipitation chances for far north
Georgia.

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

This is the final Drought Information Statement, and no additional
issuances are scheduled at this time. Drought Information Statements
will resume when Severe Drought conditions develop over north or
central Georgia.

&&

RELATED WEBSITES...

Additional information on current drought conditions may be found
at the following websites:

NWS WFO Atlanta:  www.weather.gov/atlanta
NWS WFO Atlanta - Drought Resources: weather.gov/ffc/raindef
NWS WFO Atlanta - Lake Levels: weather.gov/ffc/rrm
NOAA AHPS - Rainfall Totals: water.weather.gov/precip
U.S. Drought Portal: www.drought.gov
U.S. Drought Monitor: www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu
Climate Prediction Center: www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov
Office of the Georgia State Climatologist:
    epd.georgia.gov/office-state-climatologist
U.S. Geological Survey - Water Resources of Georgia:
    ga.water.usgs.gov
Georgia Forestry Commission - Fire Weather Assessments:
    weather.gfc.state.ga.us/maps/fdf1.gif


ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

This data was furnished by the National Weather Service in
cooperation with the U.S. Geological Survey, the Georgia State
Climatologist in Atlanta, the Georgia Environmental Protection
Division, and the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Current Fire Danger
Assessments were provided by the Georgia Forestry COmmission.


QUESTIONS OR COMMENTS...

If you have any questions or comments about this Drought Information
Statement, please contact:

NWS WFO Atlanta
4 Falcon Drive Peachtree City, GA 30269
Phone: 770-486-1133
Email: sr-ffc.webmaster@noaa.gov

$$

Belanger



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.