Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1
FGUS71 KPBZ 081632

Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service Pittsburgh PA
1132 AM EST Thu Mar 8 2018

The flood potential for early spring is above normal across the
Ohio River Basin.

An above normal flood potential means widespread flooding is
possible along with water levels having significant impact in some

For the long-range rivers outlooks and the probability if
exceeding flood stage or the chances of flooding relative to
normal at specific forecast points during the next 90 days, refer
to www.weather.gov/ohrfc and click on the 90 day river outlook on
the left hand side of the page. Click on Flood Chc vs Normal to
view the risk of flooding with respect to normal.

Flood outlooks are issued bi-weekly by the National Weather
Service during winter and early spring to summarize basin
hydrometeorological conditions and to assess the potential for
winter/spring flooding. The outlooks are based on current and
forecast conditions during the outlook period.

In addition, a 90-Day Water Resources Outlook is issued monthly.

Factors considered in assessing flood potential are (1)
antecedent conditions (2) past precipitation (3) recent
streamflows and reservoir levels (4) soil moisture (5) water
content of the snow pack (6) ice conditions on the rivers and (7)
future precipitation.

Arctic Oscillation, NAO, and the Pacific/North American
Teleconnection are giving conflicting signals in terms of wetness.

However, antecedent conditions are extremely conducive to runoff
with recent excessive rainfall, producing saturated soils. In
addition, current streamflows in the Ohio River Basin are running
above normal. Currently, significant flooding is occurring along
a couple of tributaries in the Lower Ohio Valley as well as the
reach of the Ohio River from Mt. Vernon downstream to Golconda,

Given the antecedent conditions, it is felt that it is prudent to
lace the entire OhIo River Basin in an elevated Flood potential
for early spring acknowledging that the near term is likely t be
drier, based on short term models forecasting a cooler pattern in
a predominantly northwest flow aloft.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.