Extended Streamflow Guidance
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000
FGUS63 KKRF 231436
ESGBBL

LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
512 PM CDT MON APR 22 2019

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.

:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD:  04/27/2019  - 07/26/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:BIG BLUE R AT SURPRISE NE NO.2
SRPN1               7.0  10.0  12.0    36   33   15   13   <5   <5
:LINCOLN CR AT SEWARD NE 3WNW
SWDN1              15.0  17.0  20.0    58   53   42   32    5    5
:BIG BLUE R AT SEWARD NE
SWRN1              18.0  22.0  27.0    42   33   16   16   <5   <5
:W FK BIG BLUE R NR DORCHESTER AT DORCHESTER NE 6NW
DRGN1              15.0  22.0  24.4    53   50   <5   <5   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR CRETE AT CRETE NE 2S
CRTN1              21.0  25.0  29.0    63   61   37   30   <5    5
:TURKEY CR AT WILBER NE 3W
WLBN1              12.5  16.0  21.0    75   51   18    8   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER AT BEATRICE AT BEATRICE NE
BEAN1              18.0  26.0  32.0    49   41    9   10   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE RIVER AT BARNESTON NE
BARN1              20.0  27.0  33.0    42   30   10   10   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE R AT MARYSVILLE KS
MRYK1              35.0  38.2  43.0    17   21   14   15   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT DEWEESE NE 4SE
DWEN1              10.0  16.0  17.0    51   34   15   10   11   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT FAIRBURY NE
FRBN1              18.5  20.0  23.0    30   21   16   14   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT HOLLENBERG KS
HBGK1              19.0  19.4  45.0     9    6    5    5   <5   <5
:MILL CR AT WASHINGTON KS 1ESE
WSHK1              18.0  19.0  35.0    47   44   46   39   <5   <5
:LITTLE BLUE R AT BARNES KS 4NE
BANK1              21.0  23.0  40.0    39   15   28   12   <5   <5
:BIG BLUE R AT BLUE RAPIDS KS
BLRK1              26.0  52.0  68.0    NA   52   NA   <5   NA   <5
:BLACK VERMILLION R AT FRANKFORT KS
FKFK1              19.0  27.5  40.5    NA   66   NA    5   NA   <5
:FANCY CR AT RANDOLPH KS 5NW
RDPK1              16.0  24.0  40.0    NA   10   NA   <5   NA   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET

IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0427 Z DH12 /DC1904221712/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF

:                CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 04/27/2019  - 07/26/2019

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:BIG BLUE R
SRPN1       2.5/    3.1/    4.2/    5.7/    8.7/   10.5/   10.9

:LINCOLN CR
SWDN1       7.8/    9.9/   12.8/   16.4/   18.9/   19.8/   20.1

:BIG BLUE R
SWRN1       5.0/    6.3/    9.4/   16.4/   21.1/   22.6/   22.8

:W FK BIG BLUE R NR DORCHESTER
DRGN1       6.8/    8.7/   11.3/   15.7/   19.9/   21.0/   21.3

:BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR CRETE
CRTN1      13.2/   14.8/   18.1/   22.6/   26.2/   27.5/   28.4

:TURKEY CR
WLBN1       6.7/    7.9/   12.5/   14.4/   15.3/   16.5/   17.4

:BIG BLUE RIVER AT BEATRICE
BEAN1       8.6/    9.6/   12.7/   17.4/   23.1/   25.8/   26.7

:BIG BLUE RIVER
BARN1       8.6/   10.9/   13.9/   18.2/   24.2/   27.0/   29.4

:BIG BLUE R
MRYK1      17.0/   19.8/   23.3/   28.5/   34.0/   40.8/   42.7

:LITTLE BLUE R
DWEN1       5.6/    6.3/    7.7/   10.2/   13.0/   17.5/   18.3
FRBN1      10.2/   10.9/   13.2/   16.5/   19.1/   21.1/   21.9
HBGK1       5.7/    6.4/    9.8/   13.6/   16.8/   18.8/   19.6

:MILL CR
WSHK1       4.5/    6.2/   10.3/   15.7/   21.2/   25.2/   28.0

:LITTLE BLUE R
BANK1       7.9/   10.8/   13.3/   18.5/   24.3/   25.1/   27.0

:BIG BLUE R
BLRK1        NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA

:BLACK VERMILLION R
FKFK1        NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA

:FANCY CR
RDPK1        NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA
.END

IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B KRF 0427 Z DH12 /DC1904221712/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF

:            CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
:                     VALID PERIOD = 04/27/2019  - 07/26/2019

:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---

:BIG BLUE R
SRPN1       1.4/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2/    1.2

:LINCOLN CR
SWDN1       4.6/    4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1

:BIG BLUE R
SWRN1       1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7/    1.6/    1.6/    1.6

:W FK BIG BLUE R NR DORCHESTER
DRGN1       2.7/    2.7/    2.7/    2.6/    2.6/    2.5/    2.5

:BIG BLUE RIVER NEAR CRETE
CRTN1       8.2/    8.2/    8.1/    8.0/    7.9/    7.9/    7.9

:TURKEY CR
WLBN1       1.2/    1.1/    0.9/    0.6/    0.4/    0.2/    0.0

:BIG BLUE RIVER AT BEATRICE
BEAN1       3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3

:BIG BLUE RIVER
BARN1       4.1/    4.0/    3.9/    3.7/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6

:BIG BLUE R
MRYK1      12.3/   12.2/   12.1/   12.0/   11.9/   11.8/   11.8

:LITTLE BLUE R
DWEN1       2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.0/    1.8/    1.8/    1.8
FRBN1       6.8/    6.8/    6.7/    6.7/    6.6/    6.5/    6.4
HBGK1       2.3/    2.2/    2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9

:MILL CR
WSHK1       2.1/    2.1/    2.1/    2.0/    1.9/    1.9/    1.8

:LITTLE BLUE R
BANK1       4.5/    4.4/    4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1

:BIG BLUE R
BLRK1        NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA

:BLACK VERMILLION R
FKFK1        NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA

:FANCY CR
RDPK1         NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA/     NA

:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

.END

$$



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