Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS63 KMSR 191850
ESGCIW

IOWA RIVER BASIN
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1250 PM CST TUE FEB 19 2019

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 02/25/2019 - 05/26/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Cedar River
LANM5            18.0   20.0   22.0    11    7   <5   <5   <5   <5
ASTM5            15.0   18.0   20.0    16   10   <5    7   <5    5
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5            10.5   12.0   14.0    48   17   31    9   12   <5
:Cedar River
CCYI4            12.0   15.0   18.0    35   20   20   10    9    6
JANI4            13.0   15.0   18.0    15    9    5   <5   <5   <5
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4            17.0   18.0   20.0     7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Winnebago River
MCWI4            10.0   14.5   15.5    10   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4            13.5   18.0   20.0    23   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4            12.5   14.0   15.0    26    9    9   <5   <5   <5
:Cedar River
CEDI4            89.0   92.0   94.0    92   44   46   21   21   10
:Black Hawk Creek
HUDI4            14.0   15.0   19.0   >95   42   79   23   <5   <5
:Cedar River
ALOI4            13.0   19.0   21.0    60   32   11    6    8   <5
VINI4            15.0   18.0   19.0    51   21   16    7   13   <5
PLOI4            12.5   15.5   17.0    66   30   15    6    8   <5
CIDI4            12.0   14.0   16.0    76   32   49   18   24    7
CEBI4            16.0   20.0   26.0    74   30   22    7    6   <5
CNEI4            13.0   15.0   16.5   >95   53   69   20   21    6
:Iowa River
ROWI4            12.5   15.0   17.0    19   16   <5   <5   <5   <5
MIWI4            19.0   23.0   26.0    25    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
TMAI4            12.5   13.0   14.0    56   22   34   14   10   <5
MROI4            15.0   17.0   19.0   >95   69   93   47   22    6
IOWI4            23.5   24.5   26.0    17    6   14   <5   <5   <5
:English River
KALI4            14.0   16.0   18.0   >95   50   92   30   37   15
:Iowa River
LNTI4            16.0   18.5   22.0    32   15   10    6   <5   <5
CJTI4            23.0   25.0   26.5    40   13   20    5   13   <5
WAPI4            21.0   25.0   27.5   >95   52   23    6   12   <5
OKVI4            11.0   15.0   20.0   >95   49   22    5    6   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0225 Z DH12 /DC1902191850/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 02/25/2019 - 05/26/2019
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Cedar River
LANM5      14.5/   14.8/   15.4/   15.9/   16.8/   18.1/   19.0
ASTM5       8.9/    9.3/   10.2/   11.6/   13.3/   16.5/   17.9
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5       7.7/    8.0/    8.7/   10.3/   12.4/   14.4/   14.9
:Cedar River
CCYI4       7.9/    8.1/    9.1/   10.5/   14.1/   17.8/   19.2
JANI4       6.5/    6.7/    7.4/    9.2/   11.3/   14.3/   15.3
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4      11.8/   12.2/   12.8/   13.5/   14.9/   16.0/   17.5
:Winnebago River
MCWI4       6.1/    6.3/    6.5/    7.2/    8.5/   10.0/   11.1
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4      11.2/   11.3/   11.7/   12.5/   13.5/   14.5/   16.4
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4       8.7/    9.2/   10.5/   11.5/   12.6/   13.8/   14.5
:Cedar River
CEDI4      88.2/   89.4/   89.9/   91.6/   93.6/   95.0/   97.5
:Black Hawk Creek
HUDI4      14.0/   14.5/   15.1/   15.5/   16.1/   17.7/   18.1
:Cedar River
ALOI4      10.6/   11.6/   12.3/   14.0/   16.2/   19.5/   22.2
VINI4      12.2/   12.9/   13.7/   15.2/   16.5/   19.7/   21.2
PLOI4      11.0/   11.5/   12.3/   13.2/   14.3/   16.8/   18.1
CIDI4       9.9/   10.5/   12.0/   13.9/   15.8/   20.7/   23.0
CEBI4      14.3/   14.6/   15.9/   17.8/   19.4/   24.1/   26.4
CNEI4      14.0/   14.2/   14.9/   15.5/   16.1/   17.9/   19.0
:Iowa River
ROWI4       8.6/    9.1/   10.2/   11.2/   12.2/   13.2/   14.9
MIWI4      15.5/   15.8/   16.7/   17.7/   19.0/   19.9/   21.2
TMAI4      11.1/   11.4/   12.0/   12.6/   13.3/   14.0/   14.8
MROI4      17.0/   17.2/   17.5/   18.1/   18.6/   19.6/   19.9
IOWI4      19.5/   19.5/   19.6/   19.6/   20.1/   25.2/   25.9
:English River
KALI4      15.4/   16.1/   17.0/   17.6/   18.7/   20.1/   21.2
:Iowa River
LNTI4      13.3/   13.6/   14.1/   14.9/   17.3/   18.5/   20.2
CJTI4      20.1/   20.3/   21.2/   22.5/   24.2/   27.0/   28.6
WAPI4      21.5/   21.6/   22.3/   23.4/   24.8/   28.1/   30.6
OKVI4      11.3/   11.3/   12.1/   13.1/   14.5/   17.6/   20.1
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0225 Z DH12 /DC1902191850/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 02/25/2019 - 05/26/2019
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Cedar River
LANM5       9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.4/    9.3/    9.3
ASTM5       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.3
:Turtle Creek
TRCM5       1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3
:Cedar River
CCYI4       2.5/    2.5/    2.5/    2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.3
JANI4       1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.4/    1.3/    1.3/    1.2
:West Fork Cedar River
FNHI4       6.8/    6.8/    6.8/    6.8/    6.7/    6.7/    6.6
:Winnebago River
MCWI4       3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.6/    3.5/    3.5/    3.5
:Shell Rock River
SHRI4       8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.2/    8.1/    8.1/    8.1
:Beaver Creek
NHRI4       3.4/    3.4/    3.4/    3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1
:Cedar River
CEDI4      79.4/   79.4/   79.4/   79.3/   79.3/   79.2/   79.2
:Black Hawk Creek
HUDI4       5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4/    5.4
:Cedar River
ALOI4       6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    6.0/    5.9/    5.9
VINI4       3.3/    3.3/    3.3/    3.2/    3.1/    2.9/    2.9
PLOI4       3.9/    3.9/    3.8/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.4
CIDI4       4.3/    4.2/    4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.1/    4.0
CEBI4       5.3/    5.3/    5.3/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0/    4.9
CNEI4       6.6/    6.6/    6.5/    6.5/    6.4/    6.2/    6.2
:Iowa River
ROWI4       4.1/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.8/    3.8
MIWI4      10.5/   10.5/   10.5/   10.4/   10.4/   10.3/   10.3
TMAI4       2.4/    2.4/    2.4/    2.3/    2.2/    2.2/    2.1
MROI4       7.3/    7.3/    7.3/    7.2/    7.1/    7.0/    6.9
IOWI4      10.8/   10.7/   10.7/   10.3/    9.9/    9.3/    9.1
:English River
KALI4       4.4/    4.4/    4.3/    4.3/    4.2/    4.1/    4.0
:Iowa River
LNTI4       6.1/    6.0/    5.8/    5.5/    4.9/    4.3/    4.1
CJTI4      10.8/   10.7/   10.7/   10.5/   10.2/    9.9/    9.8
WAPI4      13.5/   13.5/   13.4/   13.3/   12.9/   12.5/   12.3
OKVI4       3.7/    3.7/    3.6/    3.5/    3.3/    2.9/    2.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$



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