Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS65 KSTR 041927
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         APRIL 4, 2019

The 2019 spring runoff potential due to snowmelt is higher than usual
at this time for the Gunnison, Dolores, and San Juan river basins, somewhat
elevated in the Upper Colorado Mainstem river basin, and near normal in the
Yampa/White river basins. It should be emphasized that snow typically
accumulates into April, therefore conditions may change before the runoff
begins.

Currently, the following sites are forecast to have mean daily peak flows at
or above the flood flow at the given exceedance level:

Elk River near Milner                    10%
Yampa River at Deerlodge Park            10%
Colorado River near Cameo                10%
East River at Almont                     10%
Colorado River near CO-UT State Line     10%

In general, above average peaks are expected across western Colorado, with
highest flows, compared to average, forecast in the Gunnison, Dolores, and San
Juan river basins. Spring flows are expected to be higher compared to last year in
western Colorado. Areas that typically experience high water in normal or above
normal snow years will be susceptible during peak runoff this year. Instantaneous
peaks can be higher than mean daily peaks, especially in headwater basins.

Spring temperatures and rain events greatly affect the pattern of snowmelt
runoff and consequently the magnitude of peak flows. It is important to keep in
mind that an extended period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall
during the melt period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

Water year precipitation to date (October-March) is above average in all
basins across western Colorado with values between 110 and 135 percent of
average. March precipitation was above to much above average:

Yampa/White               135%
Upper CO Mainstem         180%
Gunnison                  215%
Dolores/San Miguel        210%
San Juan                  220%

April 1st snow water equivalent (SWE) was above average across western Colorado:

Yampa/White               115%
Upper CO Mainstem         130%
Gunnison                  145%
Dolores/San Miguel        155%
San Juan                  155%

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
above average across western Colorado river basins. Forecast volume
ranges, as a percent of average:

Yampa/White               100-120%
Upper CO Mainstem         110-130%
Gunnison                  130-170%
Dolores/San Miguel        130-170%
San Juan                  115-140%


A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

Specific forecast procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.

The spring runoff flood potential will be re-evaluated in mid April and an updated
product will be issued at that time.

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2019-04-01   2500   3000   3500   4000   5000
ELK - MILNER, NR            5920 2019-04-01   3000   3500   4000   5000   6000
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2019-04-01   8000   9000  10000  12000  15000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR    15400 2019-04-01   3000   4000   4500   5000   7000
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK     20700 2019-04-01  11000  13000  14000  16000  21000
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8510 2019-04-01   2400   2600   3000   3500   4000
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2250 2019-04-01    360    410    470    530    670
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1650 2019-04-01    670    750    880    990   1250
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    370 2019-04-01     80    100    120    130    160
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6500 2019-04-01   2900   3200   4100   4900   6000
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2019-04-01   6500   7500   9500  11500  15000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3100 2019-04-01   1650   1900   2150   2400   2700
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17000 2019-04-01   5000   6000   7000   8000  10000
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2019-04-01  13500  16000  19500  23000  29000
EAST - ALMONT               3160 2019-04-01   1800   2100   2300   2800   3200
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  14000 2019-04-01   3000   3500   4000   4500   5200
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1500 2019-04-01    250    300    350    400    480
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  21000 2019-04-01   8000   9000  11000  14350  15000
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1790 2019-04-01    900   1100   1300   1500   1700
DOLORES - DOLORES           6800 2019-04-01   3000   3500   3800   4300   5000
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   -999 2019-04-01   1100   1300   1400   1600   1900
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46000 2019-04-01  21000  25000  31000  39000  46000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   4700 2019-04-01   2200   2500   2900   3200   3600
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10400 2019-04-01   4000   4600   5500   6000   6300
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         9000 2019-04-01   4000   4600   5800   6400   6800
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         1100 2019-04-01    290    350    400    500    550


CBRFC/Moser


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