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Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS
Issued by NWS
000
FGUS63 KKRF 211538
ESGJAM
LONG RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER PLEASANT HILL MO
206 PM CDT MON MAY 20 2019
IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.
CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.
HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.
WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.
:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
VALID PERIOD: 05/25/2019 - 08/23/2019
: CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
: OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
: AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
CATEGORICAL :
FLOOD STAGES (FT) : MINOR MODERATE MAJOR
LOCATION MINOR MOD MAJOR : CS HS CS HS CS HS
-------- ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:PIPESTEM CR AT PINGREE ND 3W
PGEN8 11.0 13.0 15.0 6 <5 <5 <5 <5 <5
:JAMES R AT GRACE CITY ND 3W
GCEN8 12.0 14.0 15.0 9 <5 5 <5 5 <5
:JAMES R AT LA MOURE ND
LAMN8 14.0 16.0 18.0 11 <5 8 <5 5 <5
:ELM R AT WESTPORT SD 1N
WESS2 14.0 16.0 19.0 16 <5 7 <5 <5 <5
:JAMES R AT COLUMBIA SD 1S
CMBS2 13.0 16.0 18.0 >98 22 29 11 10 <5
:JAMES R AT STRATFORD SD 7SW
SFDS2 14.0 17.0 18.5 >98 19 24 9 11 <5
:JAMES R AT ASHTON SD
ATNS2 13.0 14.0 16.0 >98 68 >98 55 >98 35
:TURTLE CR AT REDFIELD SD
ID8S2 7.0 10.0 15.0 >98 21 >98 11 18 6
:JAMES R AT REDFIELD SD 3NE
RFDS2 20.0 22.0 25.0 >98 14 >98 12 >98 9
:JAMES R AT HURON SD
HURS2 11.0 13.0 15.0 >98 35 >98 26 >98 16
:JAMES R AT FORESTBURG SD 4SE
FORS2 12.0 14.0 16.0 >98 46 >98 32 >98 11
:JAMES R AT MITCHELL SD 4SE
JRMS2 17.0 20.0 22.0 >98 >98 >98 33 >98 13
:FIRESTEEL CR AT MOUNT VERNON SD 5N
MTVS2 8.0 13.0 15.0 >98 27 17 <5 5 <5
:JAMES R AT SCOTLAND SD 5NE
SCOS2 13.0 14.0 16.0 >98 28 >98 26 >98 13
:JAMES R AT YANKTON SD
YNNS2 12.0 14.0 16.0 >98 23 >98 14 >98 12
:W FK VERMILLION R AT PARKER SD 3WNW
PKRS2 9.0 10.0 11.0 17 6 13 6 9 <5
:E FK VERMILLION AT PARKER SD 4NE
VRPS2 12.0 14.0 16.0 35 9 16 7 8 5
:VERMILLION R AT DAVIS SD 2SE
DVSS2 11.0 13.0 15.0 >98 13 35 9 9 5
:VERMILLION R AT WAKONDA SD 7ESE
WKAS2 14.0 15.5 17.0 >98 19 >98 14 >98 11
:VERMILLION R AT VERMILLION SD 3N
VERS2 21.0 22.0 30.0 24 9 22 8 5 <5
LEGEND
CS = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT = FEET
IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS FOR THE VALID TIME
PERIOD.
:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0525 Z DH12 /DC1905201406/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
: CHANCE OF EXCEEDING STAGES AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 05/25/2019 - 08/23/2019
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PIPESTEM CR
PGEN8 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 6.1/ 9.4/ 10.7/ 11.0
:JAMES R
GCEN8 5.2/ 5.2/ 5.2/ 6.1/ 9.1/ 11.9/ 14.4
LAMN8 9.0/ 9.0/ 9.0/ 9.1/ 9.7/ 14.4/ 17.6
:ELM R
WESS2 9.6/ 9.6/ 9.6/ 9.6/ 11.1/ 14.7/ 17.2
:JAMES R
CMBS2 16.0/ 16.0/ 16.0/ 16.0/ 16.5/ 18.2/ 19.3
SFDS2 16.7/ 16.7/ 16.7/ 16.7/ 16.9/ 18.9/ 19.5
ATNS2 21.2/ 21.2/ 21.2/ 21.2/ 21.2/ 24.3/ 25.7
:TURTLE CR
ID8S2 13.6/ 13.6/ 13.6/ 13.6/ 13.6/ 17.5/ 17.8
:JAMES R
RFDS2 28.0/ 28.0/ 28.0/ 28.0/ 28.0/ 31.8/ 32.6
HURS2 18.0/ 18.0/ 18.0/ 18.0/ 18.6/ 20.4/ 21.6
FORS2 17.3/ 17.3/ 17.3/ 17.3/ 18.0/ 20.4/ 21.9
JRMS2 23.3/ 23.3/ 23.3/ 23.4/ 24.4/ 26.5/ 27.8
:FIRESTEEL CR
MTVS2 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 11.9/ 14.0/ 14.8
:JAMES R
SCOS2 17.2/ 17.2/ 17.2/ 17.3/ 18.6/ 20.1/ 21.0
YNNS2 17.1/ 17.1/ 17.1/ 17.3/ 20.1/ 22.6/ 24.4
:W FK VERMILLION R
PKRS2 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 6.3/ 7.1/ 10.8/ 11.2
:E FK VERMILLION
VRPS2 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 10.8/ 12.7/ 15.2/ 20.2
:VERMILLION R
DVSS2 12.4/ 12.4/ 12.4/ 12.4/ 13.9/ 14.7/ 15.9
WKAS2 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.0/ 17.1/ 17.3/ 17.6
VERS2 17.7/ 17.7/ 17.7/ 17.9/ 20.8/ 26.7/ 30.3
.END
IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE
PROBABILITY OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID
TIME PERIOD.
:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...
.B KRF 0525 Z DH12 /DC1905201406/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
: CHANCE OF FALLING BELOW STAGES (FT) AT SPECIFIC LOCATIONS
: VALID PERIOD = 05/25/2019 - 08/23/2019
: 95% 90% 75% 50% 25% 10% 5%
: --- --- --- --- --- --- ---
:PIPESTEM CR
PGEN8 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0
:JAMES R
GCEN8 5.1/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 5.0/ 4.9/ 4.9
LAMN8 8.5/ 8.4/ 8.0/ 7.9/ 7.9/ 7.8/ 7.8
:ELM R
WESS2 4.7/ 4.6/ 4.5/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4/ 4.4
:JAMES R
CMBS2 10.2/ 9.3/ 8.4/ 6.5/ 6.1/ 6.1/ 6.0
SFDS2 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7/ 5.7
ATNS2 14.8/ 14.4/ 14.1/ 13.3/ 12.9/ 12.8/ 12.8
:TURTLE CR
ID8S2 4.2/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.8/ 3.8
:JAMES R
RFDS2 10.0/ 9.1/ 8.4/ 7.2/ 6.5/ 6.4/ 6.4
HURS2 10.1/ 9.8/ 9.5/ 9.0/ 8.7/ 8.7/ 8.7
FORS2 12.7/ 11.4/ 10.7/ 10.2/ 9.8/ 9.6/ 9.5
JRMS2 19.3/ 18.6/ 18.3/ 18.0/ 17.7/ 17.6/ 17.5
:FIRESTEEL CR
MTVS2 3.2/ 3.1/ 2.9/ 2.9/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8
:JAMES R
SCOS2 6.4/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.8
YNNS2 2.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3/ 1.3
:W FK VERMILLION R
PKRS2 1.3/ 0.8/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.6/ 0.5/ 0.5
:E FK VERMILLION
VRPS2 4.6/ 4.0/ 3.8/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.6/ 3.5
:VERMILLION R
DVSS2 4.4/ 3.2/ 3.0/ 2.8/ 2.8/ 2.7/ 2.7
WKAS2 5.5/ 4.4/ 4.1/ 4.0/ 3.9/ 3.9/ 3.8
VERS2 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0/ 1.0
:Long-range probabilistic outlooks will be issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.
.END
$$
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