Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS63 KMSR 271703
ESGM10

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LAKE CITY..MINNESOTA TO
LOCK AND DAM 10 AT GUTTENBERG..IOWA
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1202 PM CDT WED MAR 27 2019

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 04/01/2019 - 06/30/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Turkey River
SPLI4             9.0   11.0   13.0    20   18   15   16   11   10
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5            14.0   18.0   20.0     8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5            18.0   24.0   26.0    12   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5            12.0   16.0   18.0    11    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Root River
HOUM5            15.0   17.0   18.0     5    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Upper Iowa River
BLFI4            14.0   16.0   18.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DEHI4            12.0   13.0   14.0    <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
DCHI4            14.0   17.0   19.0    23   19   10    6    9   <5
:Turkey River
EKDI4            12.0   16.0   20.0    34   32   15   18   <5   <5
GRBI4            17.0   20.0   23.0    26   28   16   17    8    9
:Mississippi River
LKCM5            16.0   18.0   20.0   >95   28  >95    9   11    6
:Mississippi River
WABM5            12.0   14.0   16.0   >95   60  >95   20   33    8
ALMW3            16.0   17.0   18.0    23    8   13    7   <5   <5
MSCM5           660.0  662.0  665.0   >95   30  >95   13   13    7
WIDM5           655.0  659.0  661.0   >95   37  >95    9   12    7
WNAM5            13.0   15.0   18.0   >95   42  >95   25   43    9
TREW3           647.0  649.0  651.0   >95   35  >95   15   14    7
LCRM5           641.0  643.0  645.0   >95   31  >95   12   14    8
LACW3            12.0   13.0   15.5   >95   42  >95   28   24    8
GENW3           631.0  634.0  636.0   >95   47  >95   11   15    8
LNSI4            17.0   19.0   20.0   >95   10   21    8   10   <5
LYNW3           625.0  628.0  631.0   >95   24  >95    9    8   <5
MCGI4            16.0   19.0   22.0   >95   52  >95   28  >95    9
GTTI4            15.0   18.0   21.0   >95   44  >95   14   30   <5

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0401 Z DH12 /DC1903271702/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 04/01/2019 - 06/30/2019
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Turkey River
SPLI4       3.6/    4.0/    5.0/    6.2/    7.7/   13.7/   15.1
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       4.4/    4.6/    5.5/    6.5/    8.1/   11.7/   16.4
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       9.0/    9.1/    9.9/   11.3/   14.6/   19.8/   21.5
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       3.0/    3.0/    3.3/    5.5/    8.6/   12.4/   15.0
:Root River
HOUM5       6.8/    6.8/    6.8/    7.8/   10.9/   14.0/   15.4
:Upper Iowa River
BLFI4       5.3/    5.4/    6.2/    6.8/    7.7/    8.6/    9.8
DEHI4       3.2/    3.5/    4.2/    4.8/    6.4/    8.8/   10.0
DCHI4       9.0/    9.2/   10.1/   11.0/   13.5/   17.2/   20.8
:Turkey River
EKDI4       7.6/    8.1/    8.9/   10.3/   12.9/   18.0/   18.7
GRBI4      10.2/   10.5/   11.6/   13.9/   17.8/   20.9/   28.5
:Mississippi River
LKCM5      18.2/   18.2/   18.3/   18.4/   18.7/   20.1/   20.7
:Mississippi River
WABM5      15.5/   15.6/   15.6/   15.7/   16.1/   17.5/   18.2
ALMW3      15.2/   15.3/   15.3/   15.4/   15.8/   17.3/   18.0
MSCM5     663.2/  663.3/  663.3/  663.4/  663.8/  665.4/  666.2
WIDM5     659.0/  659.1/  659.1/  659.2/  659.7/  661.3/  662.0
WNAM5      17.7/   17.7/   17.8/   17.9/   18.4/   19.7/   20.1
TREW3     650.0/  650.0/  650.1/  650.2/  650.4/  651.3/  651.8
LCRM5     643.6/  643.7/  643.7/  643.9/  644.2/  645.4/  646.2
LACW3      14.9/   14.9/   15.0/   15.1/   15.4/   16.4/   17.1
GENW3     634.7/  634.7/  634.8/  634.9/  635.4/  636.5/  637.2
LNSI4      17.6/   17.7/   17.7/   17.9/   18.8/   20.0/   20.8
LYNW3     628.1/  628.1/  628.2/  628.4/  629.4/  630.7/  631.5
MCGI4      22.0/   22.1/   22.4/   23.1/   24.8/   25.7/   26.9
GTTI4      18.8/   18.8/   19.1/   19.7/   21.5/   22.5/   23.8
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0401 Z DH12 /DC1903271702/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 04/01/2019 - 06/30/2019
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Turkey River
SPLI4       2.4/    2.4/    2.2/    2.1/    2.0/    2.0/    2.0
:South Fork Zumbro River
RCHM5       3.0/    2.9/    2.8/    2.7/    2.5/    2.5/    2.5
:Zumbro River
ZUMM5       5.9/    5.8/    5.6/    5.6/    5.5/    5.4/    5.4
:South Branch Root River
LNSM5       2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7/    1.7/    1.6
:Root River
HOUM5       4.0/    3.8/    3.6/    3.4/    3.3/    3.2/    3.2
:Upper Iowa River
BLFI4       4.2/    4.2/    4.1/    4.0/    4.0/    3.9/    3.9
DEHI4       2.0/    1.9/    1.8/    1.7/    1.7/    1.6/    1.5
DCHI4       7.3/    7.3/    7.2/    7.1/    7.0/    7.0/    6.9
:Turkey River
EKDI4       6.0/    5.9/    5.8/    5.6/    5.4/    5.3/    5.3
GRBI4       7.4/    7.3/    7.0/    6.7/    6.6/    6.5/    6.4
:Mississippi River
LKCM5      11.1/   10.2/    8.3/    7.2/    6.6/    6.4/    6.3
:Mississippi River
WABM5      10.0/    9.4/    8.3/    7.6/    7.3/    7.2/    7.1
ALMW3       8.1/    7.4/    6.0/    5.1/    4.7/    4.5/    4.4
MSCM5     654.7/  653.9/  652.4/  651.6/  651.3/  651.2/  651.2
WIDM5     650.2/  649.5/  647.3/  646.4/  646.0/  645.9/  645.9
WNAM5       8.8/    8.0/    6.5/    5.8/    5.7/    5.6/    5.6
TREW3     643.2/  642.6/  641.2/  640.4/  639.9/  639.8/  639.7
LCRM5     636.5/  635.7/  633.8/  632.6/  631.9/  631.7/  631.6
LACW3       8.5/    7.5/    6.1/    5.5/    5.2/    5.1/    5.0
GENW3     627.7/  626.5/  624.4/  622.9/  621.9/  621.5/  621.4
LNSI4      10.2/    9.3/    8.5/    8.2/    8.0/    7.9/    7.9
LYNW3     620.1/  618.8/  616.6/  615.2/  614.2/  613.6/  613.4
MCGI4      12.3/   11.3/    9.1/    8.5/    8.2/    8.0/    7.9
GTTI4      11.0/   10.1/    8.0/    6.6/    5.5/    5.0/    4.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$




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