Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS

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000
FGUS63 KMSR 222311
ESGMIS

MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM LOCK AND DAM 20 AT CANTON..MISSOURI
TO CHESTER..ILLINOIS
LONG-RANGE PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTH CENTRAL RIVER FORECAST CENTER TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
611 PM CDT WED MAY 22 2019

IN TABLE 1 BELOW...THE CURRENT (CS) AND HISTORICAL (HS) OR NORMAL
PROBABILITIES OF EXCEEDING MINOR...MODERATE...AND MAJOR FLOOD STAGES
ARE LISTED FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

CS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS.

HS VALUES INDICATE THE PROBABILITY OF REACHING A FLOOD CATEGORY
BASED ON HISTORICAL OR NORMAL CONDITIONS.

WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS MORE THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF
EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS HIGHER THAN NORMAL. WHEN THE VALUE OF CS IS
LESS THAN HS...THE PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDING THAT LEVEL IS LOWER
THAN NORMAL.


:...TABLE 1--PROBABILITIES FOR MINOR...MODERATE AND MAJOR FLOODING...
                   VALID PERIOD: 05/27/2019 - 08/25/2019

                                    : CURRENT AND HISTORICAL CHANCES
                                    : OF EXCEEDING FLOOD CATEGORIES
                                    :       AS A PERCENTAGE(%)
                     CATEGORICAL    :
                  FLOOD STAGES (FT) :   MINOR    MODERATE   MAJOR
LOCATION          MINOR  MOD  MAJOR :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------          ----- ----- ----- : ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
:Mississippi River
CANM7            14.0   20.0   25.0   >95   37  >95    5   13   <5
LGRM7            18.0   23.0   25.0   >95   10   43   <5   15   <5
UINI2            17.0   22.0   26.0   >95   36  >95    8   47   <5
QLDI2            17.0   21.0   25.0   >95   27  >95    6   47   <5
HNNM7            16.0   22.0   24.0   >95   39  >95    5   57   <5
SVRM7            16.0   20.0   22.0   >95   31  >95   10  >95    6
LUSM7            15.0   20.0   25.0   >95   42  >95   10   30   <5
CLKM7            25.0   31.0   33.0   >95   42  >95    6  >95   <5
CAGM7            26.0   30.0   34.0   >95   39  >95   13   62   <5
GRFI2            18.0   24.0   29.0   >95   47  >95   10   42    7
ALNI2            21.0   29.0   34.0   >95   45  >95   15  >95    7
EADM7            30.0   35.0   40.0   >95   26  >95   16  >95    8
CHSI2            27.0   35.0   40.0   >95   45  >95   16  >95    9

LEGEND
CS  = CONDITIONAL SIMULATION (CURRENT OUTLOOK)
HS  = HISTORICAL SIMULATION
FT  = FEET


IN TABLE 2 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF EXCEEDING THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 2--EXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0527 Z DH12 /DC1905222311/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZXT/HGVFZX9/HGVFZXH
.B1 /HGVFZX5/HGVFZXG/HGVFZX1/HGVFZXF
:
:       Chance of Exceeding Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:             Valid  Period: 05/27/2019 - 08/25/2019
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mississippi River
CANM7      20.8/   20.8/   21.1/   21.9/   23.3/   25.4/   26.2
LGRM7      21.7/   21.7/   22.0/   22.8/   24.2/   26.3/   27.1
UINI2      24.5/   24.6/   25.0/   25.9/   27.6/   30.4/   31.5
QLDI2      23.3/   23.4/   23.8/   24.9/   27.0/   29.7/   30.7
HNNM7      22.9/   22.9/   23.1/   24.2/   26.4/   29.3/   30.6
SVRM7      23.4/   23.4/   23.6/   24.7/   26.5/   28.6/   29.3
LUSM7      22.8/   22.9/   23.0/   23.9/   25.6/   27.4/   28.5
CLKM7      33.4/   33.5/   33.6/   34.5/   35.8/   37.2/   38.1
CAGM7      33.3/   33.3/   33.5/   34.4/   36.0/   37.6/   38.5
GRFI2      27.1/   27.1/   27.2/   28.7/   31.2/   35.0/   37.8
ALNI2      37.0/   37.0/   37.3/   38.3/   40.1/   44.8/   47.4
EADM7      44.7/   44.7/   44.9/   46.1/   47.6/   52.0/   54.3
CHSI2      44.6/   44.6/   45.0/   46.2/   47.5/   51.4/   53.5
.END


IN TABLE 3 BELOW...THE 95 THROUGH 5 PERCENT COLUMNS INDICATE THE PROBABILITY
OF FALLING BELOW THE LISTED STAGE LEVELS (FT) FOR THE VALID TIME PERIOD.

:...TABLE 3--NONEXCEEDANCE PROBABILITIES...

.B MSR 0527 Z DH12 /DC1905222311/DRD+6/DVD90/HGVFZNT/HGVFZN9/HGVFZNH
.B1 /HGVFZN5/HGVFZNG/HGVFZN1/HGVFZNF
:
:       Chance of Falling Below Stages (ft) at Specific Locations
:               Valid  Period: 05/27/2019 - 08/25/2019
:
:           95%     90%     75%     50%     25%     10%      5%
:           ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---     ---
:Mississippi River
CANM7      10.0/    8.3/    6.7/    5.5/    4.5/    3.7/    3.3
LGRM7      10.9/    9.2/    7.6/    6.4/    5.3/    4.6/    4.2
UINI2      13.5/   12.7/   12.4/   12.1/   11.8/   11.4/   11.1
QLDI2      11.2/    9.0/    7.2/    6.0/    5.2/    4.3/    3.9
HNNM7      13.1/   12.0/   11.2/   10.7/   10.3/    9.9/    9.9
SVRM7      10.8/    9.0/    7.7/    6.8/    6.0/    5.0/    4.8
LUSM7      12.2/   12.1/   12.0/   12.0/   11.9/   11.9/   11.9
CLKM7      20.9/   19.2/   17.9/   17.0/   15.9/   14.8/   14.3
CAGM7      20.9/   19.1/   17.8/   16.8/   15.7/   14.6/   14.2
GRFI2      17.4/   15.5/   15.2/   15.1/   15.0/   14.8/   14.7
ALNI2      21.2/   12.3/    8.8/    7.9/    6.8/    5.0/    4.2
EADM7      25.8/   15.6/   10.7/    9.0/    6.2/    3.4/    2.0
CHSI2      27.8/   17.6/   13.0/   11.4/    9.2/    6.1/    4.8
.END


:Long-range probabilistic outlooks are issued near the end of
:the month throughout the year.

$$



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