Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Northeast RFC

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WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
NORTHEAST RIVER FORECAST CENTER NORTON MA
515 PM EDT WED APR 17 2019

...FOR OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USE ONLY...

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. /8/

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED STATES
IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR MAINE...NORTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN VERMONT...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL ADIRONDACKS OF NEW YORK.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS
CONNECTICUT...RHODE ISLAND AND THE CATSKILLS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL IS NEAR NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR NORMAL ACROSS
AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN NORTHERN MAINE.

ELSEWHERE THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS HAS PASSED.

...CLIMATE GUIDANCE...

THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL 2019 WAS NOTED BY NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS MOST OF THE NERFC
AREA. SOME WESTERN AND NORTHERN BASINS WERE SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN
NORMAL.

APRIL 1-15 2019 TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES GENERALLY RANGED FROM NEAR
NORMAL TO AROUND +3.0F. THE MILDEST DEPARTURES AT LONG TERM CLIMATE
SITES WERE +3.1F AT NEW YORK CENTRAL PARK AND +3.2F AT BOSTON LOGAN
AIRPORT. COOLER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURE DEPARTURES UP TO -1.0F WERE
FOUND AT CARIBOU AND BANGOR MAINE...CONCORD NEW HAMPSHIRE...BUFFALO
AND WATERTOWN NEW YORK. THE COOLEST DEPARTURE WAS -1.2F AT WATERTOWN
NEW YORK.

APRIL 1-15 2019 PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES RANGED FROM NORMAL UP TO
1.50 INCHES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE NERFC AREA. SLIGHT BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES UP TO -0.50 INCH WERE FOUND IN
WESTERN NEW YORK...NEW YORK CITY AND BURLINGTON VERMONT.

THE WETTEST DEPARTURES WERE FOUND ACROSS HARTFORD...TOLLAND AND
WINDHAM COUNTIES IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF RHODE
ISLAND...WORCESTER COUNTY IN CENTRAL MASSACHUSETTS...SARATOGA AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES IN NEW YORK...ORANGE...RUTLAND AND WINDSOR
COUNTIES IN CENTRAL VERMONT.

THE FIRST HALF OF APRIL SNOWFALL DEPARTURES WERE GENERALLY BELOW
NORMAL TO NEAR NORMAL...EXCEPT ABOVE NORMAL IN MAINE. THE GREATEST
ABOVE NORMAL DEPARTURE WAS +7.3 INCHES AT CARIBOU MAINE.

SINCE THE LAST OUTLOOK WAS ISSUED APRIL 4TH...AVERAGE DAILY
TEMPERATURES HAVE RANGED FROM NEAR NORMAL UP TO 4.5 DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. THE MILDEST DEPARTURE WAS 4.8F AT NEW YORK/S CENTRAL PARK.
THE EXCEPTIONS WERE SLIGHT BELOW NORMAL AVERAGE TEMPERATURES UP TO
-0.5 DEGREE BELOW NORMAL AT WATERTOWN NEW YORK...BURLINGTON VERMONT
AND CARIBOU MAINE.

AN ACTIVE PATTERN FROM SINCE LAST OUTLOOK HAS HELPED KEEP MOST AREA
PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE
RANGED FROM APPROXIMATELY NEAR NORMAL TO 1.50 INCHES ABOVE
NORMAL...EXCEPT UP TO -0.50 BELOW NORMAL IN WESTERN NEW YORK.

A WEAK EL NINO CONTINUES TO ALLOW FOR AN ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET
STREAM. TELECONNECTION PATTERNS INDICATE THAT A POSITIVE NORTHERN
ATLANTIC OSCILLATION (NAO) SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL. THIS SHOULD
ALLOW FOR A MOSTLY PROGRESSIVE PATTERN. HOWEVER CUTOFF LOW SYSTEMS
ARE FAIRLY COMMON DURING THE LATE APRIL TIMEFRAME AND THIS WILL
STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED. IN ADDITION...THE ARCTIC OSCILLATION
(AO) IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO SLIGHTLY POSITIVE WHILE THE
(PNA) EASTERN PACIFIC OSCILLATION MAY SWITCH FROM POSITIVE TO
NEGATIVE PHASE. SO WHILE LONG WAVE TROUGHING WILL OCCUR...THIS WILL
BE TEMPORARY. TELECONNECTIONS AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE CURRENTLY
INDICATING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES APPEAR MORE LIKELY DURING LATE
APRIL.

IN ADDITION...AN ACTIVE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE...YIELDING
CHANCES FOR ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

IN THE SHORT TERM...LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE ROCKIES
APRIL 19TH-20TH. CURRENT INDICATIONS FROM LONG RANGE MODELS AND
ENSEMBLE DATA ARE FOR 0.75 TO 1.50 INCHES OF QPF WITH LOCALLY HIGHER
AMOUNTS 2+ INCHES POSSIBLE. THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WIND ADVECTING MILD TEMPERATURES AND HIGH DEWPOINT AIR...AND RUNOFF
FROM PRECIPITATION AND MELT...WILL LIKELY YIELD ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD THREAT FROM AROUND THE 20TH TO THE 22ND. THIS IS ALSO BEING
INDICATED BY THE LATEST NERFC MULTI MODEL ENSEMBLE FORECASTS.

IN THE LONGER TERM...IT APPEARS DRIER WEATHER SHOULD OCCUR WITH A
BREAK POSSIBLE...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER POTENTIAL PRECIPITATION THREAT
APRIL 25-26TH WHEN LOW PRESSURE AND A COLD FRONT MAY APPROACH.

THE OFFICIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE 6 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FOR 23
APRIL THROUGH 01 MAY 2019 IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THIS
ASSESSMENT...CALLING FOR MILDER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES
FOR SOME ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION.

...OBSERVED SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS...

SNOW COVER DECREASED FROM 53 TO 34 PERCENT ACROSS THE NERFC AREA
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF WEEKS FROM APRIL 4TH TO APRIL 17TH. IN
ADDITION THE AVERAGE AREAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT DECREASED FROM 2.9
INCHES TO 1.8 INCHES DURING THIS TIMEFRAME.

SOME SIGNIFICANT MELT AND RUNOFF HAS OCCURRED DUE TO MILD
TEMPERATURES AND RAINFALL DURING THE APRIL 13-15TH EVENT.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL IN PORTIONS OF THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE.

...NEW YORK STATE...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF NEW YORK STATE.

ANY SNOW COVER OF REMAINING HYDROLOGIC SIGNIFICANCE IS LOCATED
ACROSS PATCHES OF THE ADIRONDACK WOODS AND ITS HIGHEST PEAKS.

SNOW DEPTHS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE WOODED
ADIRONDACKS...WITH LOCALLY A FOOT OR MORE ACROSS THE PEAKS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS GENERALLY RANGE FROM LESS THAN AN INCH OR
LESS ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS...EXCEPT 2 TO 5+ INCHES ACROSS THE
PEAKS. THESE SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN ALONG THE UPPER REACHES
OF THE HUDSON RIVER AT NORTH CREEK...NEWCOMB...RAQUETTE RIVER NEAR
PIERCEFIELD...AUSABLE RIVER AT AUSABLE FORKS AND NEAR SARANAC LAKE.

...SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

...VERMONT...

ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS REMAIN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF VERMONT.

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF THE CHAMPLAIN VALLEY REGION
WEST OF THE GREEN MOUNTAINS.

THE GROUND IS MOSTLY BARE ACROSS SOUTHERN VERMONT. SOME SNOW COVER
REMAINS ACROSS DEEPER WOODED AREAS AND THE PEAKS. SNOW DEPTHS FROM
NIL MOST AREAS. SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN ACROSS WOODED AREAS
AND THE HIGHER PEAKS. LANDGROVE REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 5 INCHES
AND PERU AS OF 17 APRIL 2019.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM NIL ACROSS OPEN AREAS TO UP TO 1
TO 3 INCHES ACROSS DEEP WOODED AREAS AND THE PEAKS.

SNOW COVER INCREASES ACROSS NORTHEASTERN VERMONT...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW DEPTHS VARY FROM NIL
ALONG THE CENTRAL CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY THEN INCREASE UP TO 6
INCHES ACROSS THE UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER VALLEY AND WOODED LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE TO 12 TO 18 INCHES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER SNOW DEPTHS OF SEVERAL FEET ACROSS THE PEAKS.
GRANBY NEAR ELEVATION 1800FT REPORTED A SNOW DEPTH OF 17 INCHES AS
OF 16 APRIL 2019.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS SOME OF THE
LOWER OPEN TERRAIN OF NORTHEASTERN VERMONT...3 TO 6+ INCHES ACROSS
WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHEASTERN VERMONT AS WELL AS THE
UPPER CONNECTICUT RIVER.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE AVERAGING 125 TO 175 PERCENT OF NORMAL
FOR MID APRIL ACROSS THE WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS OF NORTHERN
VERMONT AND CLOSER TO NORMAL ELSEWHERE.

THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE FOUND ALONG THE PASSUMPSIC
RIVER AT PASSUMPSIC...WELLS RIVER VERMONT AND WINOOSKI RIVER NEAR
ESSEX JUNCTION VERMONT.

...NEW HAMPSHIRE...

ABOVE NORMAL SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE FOUND ACROSS PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

THE GROUND IS BARE ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE FROM THE
LOWER MERRIMACK VALLEY TO THE SEACOAST REGION AND THE MONADNOCKS.

SNOW COVER AND SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE CONSIDERABLY ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE...PRIMARILY ACROSS WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS AND
APPROACHING THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

SNOW DEPTHS RANGE FROM NIL UP TO 6 INCHES IN OPEN AREAS...10 INCHES
20 INCHES ACROSS DEEP WOODED AREAS AND LOCALLY 2+ FEET ACROSS THE
PEAKS. PITTSBURG RESERVOIR REPORTED 10 INCHES...GORHAM 13
INCHES...RANDOLPH 20 INCHES AND NORTH CONWAY 22 INCHES AS OF 16
APRIL 2019

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THESE AREAS GENERALLY RANGE FROM 1 TO 3
INCHES EXCEPT 4 TO 8+ INCHES ACROSS DEEPER WOODED AREAS AND SOME OF
THE HIGH PEAKS.

THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS WERE FOUND ALONG THE UPPER
REACHES OF MERRIMACK RIVER IN THE WHITE MOUNTAINS NEAR WOODSTOCK AND
PLYMOUTH... THE ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER NEAR GORHAM AND UPPER REACHES OF
THE SACO RIVER AT CONWAY. HIGH SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS EXIST ALONG
THE AMMONOOSUC RIVER AT BETHLEHAM...CONNECTICUT RIVER AT NORTH
DALTON AND NORTH STRATFORD IN FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS IN NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE ARE NEAR NORMAL
ALONG THE CENTRAL CONNECTICUT VALLEY. SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE
FROM 125 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL ALONG PORTIONS OF THE UPPER
REACHES OF THE CONNECTICUT RIVER NEARING INTERNATIONAL BORDER AND
ALSO IN THE WHITE MOUNTAIN REGION. GREATEST DEPARTURES ARE FOUND
ACROSS DEEP WOODED AND HIGH PEAK AREAS.

...MAINE...

ABOVE NORMAL SNOW DEPTHS AND WATER EQUIVALENTS STILL ARE FOUND
ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR WESTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE.

BARE GROUND EXISTS ALONG COASTAL MAINE.

SNOW COVER AND SNOW DEPTHS VARY ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND GENERALLY
RANGE FROM NIL TO LESS THAN 6 INCHES. SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
ONE FOOT OR MORE WERE FOUND AT NEW SHARON AND DOVER-FOXCROFT WITH 12
AND 16 INCH SNOW DEPTHS REPORTED RESPECTIVELY  AS OF 16 APRIL 2019.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN AN INCH UP TO 2
INCHES BUT LOCALLY 3 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS DEEPER WOODED AND HIGH
TERRAIN AREAS OF THE FOOTHILLS.

SNOW COVER AND SNOW DEPTHS INCREASE ACROSS WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MAINE ESPECIALLY DEEPER WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. SNOW DEPTHS
VARY FROM 4 TO 10 INCHES ACROSS OPEN AREAS AND 10 TO 20 INCHES
ACROSS DEEPER WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN AREAS. LOCALIZED 2+ FOOT
DEPTHS EXIST ACROSS THE PEAKS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGE FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES ACROSS SOME OPEN
REACH AREAS...OTHERWISE 5 TO 8+ INCHES ACROSS WOODED AREAS AND THE
HIGH PEAKS.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE AVERAGING 125 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
ACROSS DEEP WOODED AND HIGH TERRAIN PORTIONS OF WESTERN AND NORTHERN
MAINE FOR THE TIME OF THE YEAR.

SNOWPACK WAS MAINTAINED IN NORTHERN AND WESTERN MAINE WITH LITTLE TO
NO NET LOSS DURING THE APRIL 8-9TH SNOW/MIXED PRECIPITATION EVENT.
MORE NET LOSS TO THE SNOWPACK OCCURRED DURING THE APRIL 14TH-15TH
DUE TO A MILDER RAIN AND MELT EVENT. THE SNOW DEPTH AT CARIBOU
DECREASED FROM 27 INCHES ON APRIL 10TH TO 11 INCHES ON APRIL 15TH.

THE HIGHEST SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS ARE FOUND ACROSS THE FISH RIVER
NEAR FORT KENT...BIG BLACK RIVER NEAR CLAYTON LAKE...SAINT JOHN
RIVER AT DICKEY AND NINE MILE BRIDGE...SAINT FRANCIS RIVER NEAR
CONNERS...EAST BRANCH OF THE PENOBSCOT RIVER AT
GRINDSTONE...AROOSTOOK RIVER NEAR WASHBURN AND MASARDIS...
CARRABASSETT RIVER NEAR NORTH ANSON...KENNEBEC RIVER AT WYMAN...
SWIFT RIVER AT ROXBURY...ANDROSCOGGIN RIVER AT RUMFORD.

...SOIL MOISTURE AND GROUNDWATER CONDITIONS...

THE FIRST PART OF APRIL EXHIBITED NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION
ALONG WITH INCREASED SNOWMELT ACROSS THE NORTHERN BASINS. HOWEVER
MARCH FEATURED BELOW NORMAL PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH A MORE GRADUAL
RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT.

MOISTURE STATES HAVE INCREASED OR REMAINED NEARLY STEADY THE PAST
TWO WEEKS ACROSS MOST OF THE BASINS. HOWEVER SOIL MOISTURE STATES
HAVE DECREASED IN WESTERN NEW YORK WITH LESS PRECIPITATION RECORDED
OVER THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS ALONG WITH THE LACK OF ANY REMAINING
SNOW COVER FOR ADDITIONAL RUNOFF.

THE LATEST PALMER DROUGHT SEVERITY INDEX LOOKS AT MOISTURE STATES
FROM WEEKS TO SEVERAL MONTHS IN THE PAST. THE LATEST PDSI FROM 13
APRIL 2019 INDICATED MOST OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN
NEW YORK STATE REMAINING EITHER VERY MOIST OR EXTREMELY MOIST.
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...DOWNEAST MAINE AND WESTERN NEW YORK REMAIN
UNUSUALLY MOIST. MOST OF NORTHERN NEW YORK STATE AND NORTHERN NEW
ENGLAND IS EXHIBITING NEAR NORMAL MOISTURE STATES.

RECENT NEAR SURFACE SOIL MOISTURE ANOMALIES AS OF 15 APRIL 2019 SHOW
THAT WETTER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS EXIST ACROSS MOST OF THE NERFC
AREA. NEAR NORMAL CONDITIONS ARE FOUND ACROSS NORTHERN NEW YORK
STATE. RECENT MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED IN MAINE...NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND VERMONT DUE TO MELT AND RECHARGE FROM A DEEP SNOWPACK
ALONG WITH RECENT PRECIPITATION.

TAKING A LOOK AT GROUNDWATER MONITORING WELLS ACROSS THE REGION
COURTESY OF THE UNITED STATES GEOLOGICAL SURVEY ( USGS )...MOST
AREAS ARE INDICATING GROUNDWATER LEVELS AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
APRIL. SOME EXCEPTIONS EXIST PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE FINGER LAKES
REGION WHERE POCKETS OF BELOW NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE FOUND.

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE HIGHEST ACROSS PORTIONS OF EXTREME
SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT...PORTIONS
OF RHODE ISLAND...EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS AND ALSO EASTERN MAINE.

IN NEW YORK STATE...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE.

THE USGS MONITORING WELL NEAR HYDE PARK IN SOUTHEASTERN NEW YORK WAS
AT ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN LEVEL FOR APRIL 16TH IN ITS 59 YEAR PERIOD OF
RECORD.

THE UPTON NY GROUNDWATER SITE ON LONG ISLAND OBSERVED NEAR 75TH
PERCENTILE LEVELS FOR APRIL 16TH IN ITS 64 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

PORTIONS OF THE EASTERN FINGER LAKES IN CENTRAL NEW YORK WERE
REPORTING BELOW NORMAL GROUNDWATER LEVELS. MORAVIA WAS REPORTING ITS
LOWEST MEDIAN LEVEL FOR MID APRIL IN ITS 42 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

IN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL.

IN CONNECTICUT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE AVERAGING SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

IN SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...CLINTON IN SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY WAS
REPORTING ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR MID APRIL IN ITS
27 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD. SOUTHBURY IN WESTERN NEW HAVEN COUNTY
RECENTLY TIED ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR MID APRIL IN
ITS 25 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

IN NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MANSFIELD IN TOLLAND COUNTY WAS WITHIN THE
90TH PERCENTILE TO HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR MID APRIL.
SALISBURY IN LITCHFIELD COUNTY WAS WITHIN THE 50TH TO 75 PERCENTILE
LEVEL FOR MID APRIL.

IN RHODE ISLAND...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

BURRILVILLE IN PROVIDENCE COUNTY WAS REPORTING ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR MID APRIL IN ITS 24 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.
RICHMOND IN WASHINGTON COUNTY WAS REPORTING BETWEEN THE 90TH TO
HIGHEST MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR MID APRIL IN ITS 41 YEAR PERIOD
OF RECORD.

ELSEWHERE GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE AVERAGING 50 TO 75 PERCENT OF
NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

IN MASSACHUSETTS...GROUNDWATER LEVELS WERE AVERAGING IN THE 75TH TO
90TH PERCENTILE RANGE OF NORMAL FOR MID APRIL IN EASTERN
MASSACHUSETTS INCLUDING CAPE COD. GROUNDWATER LEVELS ACROSS CENTRAL
AND WESTERN MASSACHUSETTS WERE AVERAGING CLOSER TO NORMAL LEVELS.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...

GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY NEAR NORMAL OR ABOVE NORMAL.

IN VERMONT...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL.
GROUNDWATER LEVELS RANGE FROM 75TH TO 90TH PERCENTILE IN PITTSFORD
IN RUTLAND COUNTY. GROUNDWATER LEVELS RANGE FROM 50TH TO 75TH
PERCENTILE NEAR HARTLAND IN WINDSOR COUNTY AND ALSO SOUTH OF GLOVER
IN ORLEANS COUNTY. THERE IS STILL ADDITIONAL SNOW WATER AVAILABLE
FOR RECHARGE IN NORTHEASTERN VERMONT.

IN NEW HAMPSHIRE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE AVERAGING NEAR NORMAL
ACROSS THE STATE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WATER STILL REMAINS FOR
ADDITIONAL RECHARGE ACROSS THE NORTH.

IN MAINE...GROUNDWATER LEVELS ARE GENERALLY ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE
STATE.

CALAIS IN EXTREME EASTERN MAINE WAS REPORTING ITS HIGHEST MEDIAN
GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR MID APRIL IN ITS 35 YEAR PERIOD OF RECORD.

CLAYTON LAKE IN NORTHWESTERN MAINE WAS ALSO REPORTING ITS HIGHEST
MEDIAN GROUNDWATER LEVEL FOR MID APRIL IN ITS 29 YEAR PERIOD OF
RECORD.

RECENT SNOWMELT AND PRECIPITATION HAVE HELPED BOOST GROUNDWATER
LEVELS IN MAINE. SIGNIFICANT SNOW WATER IS STILL AVAILABLE FOR
ADDITIONAL RECHARGE ACROSS INTERIOR AREAS.

...RESERVOIR LEVELS...

LAKE AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS NEW YORK STATE REMAIN NEAR TO ABOVE
NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A NET DECREASE OVER
THE PAST MONTH IN MANY AREAS. INDIAN LAKE WAS STILL 2.8 FEET BELOW
NORMAL...HOWEVER...GREAT SACANDAGA LAKE WAS RUNNING ABOUT 4.7 FEET
ABOVE NORMAL MID APRIL POOL LEVELS. THERE IS A SMALL AMOUNT OF
SNOWPACK LEFT TO MELT.

FURTHER NORTH...LAKE CHAMPLAIN AT BURLINGTON VERMONT IS NOW RUNNING
0.8 TO 0.9 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID APRIL.

THE NEW YORK CITY WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM...COMPRISED OF 7 LARGE
RESERVOIRS IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK STATE...WAS RUNNING AT 100 PERCENT
OF CAPACITY AS OF 16 APRIL 2019 WHICH WAS 1.5 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL.
FIVE OF THE SEVEN RESERVOIRS ARE NOW RUNNING ABOVE CAPACITY LEVEL
INCLUDING SCHOHARIE....PEPACTON...CANNONSVILLE... NEVERSINK AND
CROTON. ASHOKAN AND ROUNDOUT WERE SLIGHTLY BELOW CAPACITY AT THIS
TIME.

IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND...RESERVOIR SYSTEMS IN THE KENNEBEC AND
ANDROSCOGGIN HAVE RIVER LEVELS CLOSE TO NORMAL FOR MID APRIL. LAKE
WINNIPESAUKEE IS ALSO ABOUT 0.2 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL FOR EARLY APRIL.

ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND...QUABBIN RESERVOIR...THE MAIN WATER
SUPPLY RESERVOIR FOR MUCH OF GREATER BOSTON...WAS RUNNING AT 99.6
PERCENT CAPACITY AS OF 01 APRIL 2019. THE WACHUSETT RESERVOIR WAS AT
92.3 PERCENT CAPACITY AS OF 01 APRIL 2019. IN RHODE ISLAND THE
SCITUATE RESERVOIR...THE MAIN WATER SUPPLY RESERVOIR FOR NORTHERN
RHODE ISLAND INCLUDING PROVIDENCE...WAS AT 285.3 FEET AS OF 16 APRIL
2019 WHICH IS ROUGHLY 104.9 PERCENT CAPACITY.

WE CURRENTLY DO NOT ANTICIPATE ANY WIDESPREAD WATER SUPPLY PROBLEMS
THIS SPRING. AN EXCESS OF WATER MAY STILL NEED TO BE RELEASED NEAR
TERM IN PORTIONS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SOME SIGNIFICANT
WATER REMAINS IN THE SNOWPACK AND ALSO DUE TO CURRENT ABOVE NORMAL
STREAMFLOWS.

...RIVER AND ICE CONDITIONS...

RIVER FLOWS ARE GENERALLY AVERAGING ABOVE NORMAL NOW DUE TO RECENT
NEAR TO ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION AND RUNOFF DUE TO MELT.

WIDESPREAD MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE RIVER FLOODING OCCURRED DUE TO
THE RAIN AND MELT EVENT FROM THE 13TH TO 15TH. THERE WERE STILL 18
RIVER POINTS IN MINOR FLOOD STAGE AND TWO IN MODERATE FLOOD STAGE AT
THE TIME OF COMPOSING THIS REPORT. MOST OF THE NERFC BASINS HAVE
BEEN IMPACTED EXCEPT GREAT LAKES BASIN.

MOST OF THE RIVER ICE HAS ALSO CLEARED OUT NOW DUE TO THE RAIN AND
MELT EVENT ON THE APRIL 13-15TH AND ALSO BECAUSE OF THE INCREASING
APRIL SUN ANGLE HELPING TO INCREASE ROT.

SOME RIVER ICE REMAINS ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
NORTHERN MAINE. RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY AND PHOTOS FROM WFO CARIBOU
MAINE SHOW ICE WITH OPEN LEADS FOUND ALONG THE PISCATAQUIS RIVER
FROM GUILFORD TO ABBOT AND SEBEC. OPEN AREAS WERE FOUND AT DOVER-
FOXCROFT. RECENT PHOTOS ALSO INDICATE PILES OF ICE BUNCHING UP ALONG
BENDS AND BRIDGES ON THE AROOSTOOK RIVER FROM WASHBURN TO
CROUSEVILLE. SOME SIGNIFICANT ICE WAS FOUND BETWEEN FORT FAIRFIELD
AND CARIBOU.

IN NORTHERN MAINE...RECENT REPORTS INDICATE AN ICE JAM WHICH WAS
LOCATED FROM FORT KENT TO MADAWASKA MAINE FINALLY RELEASED. IN
ADDITION THERE WAS SOME ICE JAMMING OCCURRING AROUND THE ISLANDS OF
FRENCHVILLE. WEBCAM IMAGES INDICATE THAT ICE HAS CLEARED OUT IN A
PORTION OF THE SAINT JOHN RIVER NEAR DICKEY.

THE MAIN FOCUS AREA FOR ICE JAMS IN THE NEAR TO SHORT TERM APPEARS
TO BE NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY IN FAR NORTHERN MAINE.

OTHERWISE RIVER ICE IS NO LONGER OF ANY SIGNIFICANT PRESENCE OR A
CONCERN ACROSS THE NERFC AREA.

...IN CONCLUSION...

BASED ON THE INFORMATION AVAILABLE AT THIS TIME...THE WINTER/SPRING
FLOOD POTENTIAL IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...UPPER REACHES OF THE HUDSON RIVER...LAKE
CHAMPLAIN REGION OF NEW YORK AND VERMONT...NORTHEAST KINGDOM OF
VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE.

SNOW WATER EQUIVALENTS RANGING FROM 125 TO 200 PERCENT OF NORMAL
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEASTERN VERMONT...NORTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE AND INTERIOR MAINE. MOST OF THE SNOW IS CONFINED ACROSS
DEEP WOODED AREAS...THE HIGH TERRAIN AND APPROACHING THE
INTERNATIONAL BORDER.

THE TIMEFRAME FOR ANTICIPATED FLOODING WILL GENERALLY BE FOCUSED
DURING THE NEAR TO SHORT TERM OF THE OUTLOOK. SOME OF THE SLOWER
RESPONDERS LIKE THE CONNECTICUT RIVER WILL TAKE A BIT LONGER.

A SLOW MOVING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE NERFC AREA FRIDAY
APRIL 19TH AND SATURDAY APRIL 20TH. MILD MOIST AIR EXTENDING NORTH
AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MELT AWAY A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF THE REMAINING NORTHERN BASIN SNOWPACK. IN ADDITION THE POTENTIAL
EXISTS FOR 0.75 TO 2 INCHES WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ACROSS THE
NERFC AREA. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS REGARDING THE TIMING AND
PLACEMENT OF CONVECTION WHICH WILL HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON
RIVER FLOWS. THE COMBINATION OF MELT FROM A RIPE SNOWPACK AND
RAINFALL POTENTIAL WILL LEAD TO ADDITIONAL SIGNIFICANT RUNOFF.

MANY LOCATIONS ARE CURRENTLY EXHIBITING HIGH FLOW CONDITIONS ALONG
WITH RECENT ACTION TO MINOR FLOOD EVENT REPORTS. THIS LOW SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO BRING RENEWED OR ADDITIONAL FLOODING. UPSLOPE RAINFALL
ENHANCEMENT MAY BRING POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT FLOODING ALONG NEARBY
HIGH TERRAIN AREAS SUCH AS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS...GREEN AND
WHITE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND IN INTERIOR MAINE.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL...IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE MID
TO LOWER CONNECTICUT RIVER EXTENDING FROM THE VERMONT NEW HAMPSHIRE
BORDER SOUTH INTO MASSACHUSETTS AND CONNECTICUT.

RUNOFF FROM ANTICIPATED SIGNIFICANT RAIN AND ADDITIONAL SNOWMELT
CHANNELING ALONG THE CONNECTICUT RIVER WILL BRING AN INCREASED FLOOD
THREAT DURING THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK PERIOD.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL...IS ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS MOST OF
CONNECTICUT AND RHODE ISLAND...AND THE CATSKILLS OF SOUTHEASTERN NEW
YORK. HIGH STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY OBSERVED DUE TO ABOVE NORMAL
RAINFALL IN EARLY APRIL AND UNUSUALLY MOIST ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS.

THE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL...IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK AND THE FINGER LAKES....SOUTHERN NEW
HAMPSHIRE INTO SOUTHERN MAINE. VERY MOIST TO UNUSUALLY MOIST
ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS EXIST. RAINFALL FROM THE UPCOMING EVENT APRIL
19-20 MAY BRING SOME LOCALLY SIGNIFICANT RISES.

THE POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING DUE TO ICE JAMS IS NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS PORTIONS OF FAR NORTHERN MAINE. THE AROOSTOOK RIVER
AND SAINT JOHN RIVERS WILL ESPECIALLY NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
ISOLATED BREAKUP ICE JAM FLOOD POTENTIAL. HOWEVER ICE CONTINUES TO
ROT AND THIN OUT ACROSS THIS REGION.

ELSEWHERE THE ICE JAM THREAT IS OVER FOR THIS SEASON.

IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THAT VERY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RESULT IN
FLOODING AT ANY TIME OF YEAR...EVEN IN AREAS THAT HAVE LITTLE OR NO
SNOW ON THE GROUND.

A GRAPHIC DEPICTING THE FLOOD POTENTIAL ON A BASIN BY BASIN BASIS IS
AVAILABLE ON THE NERFC WEB SITE AT


        ***WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/NERFC/OPS/FP1_TODAY.JPG***

ALL IN LOWER CASE.

THE LAST WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK FOR THE SEASON MAY BE
ISSUED BY THE NERFC THURSDAY 01 MAY 2019. THIS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND FORECASTS AT THAT TIME.

END/STRAUSS
$$



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