Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Ohio RFC

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SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OHIO RIVER FORECAST CENTER WILMINGTON OH
1145 AM EST MON FEB 18, 2019

THE FLOOD POTENTIAL IS ABOVE NORMAL IN THE OHIO VALLEY/LAKE ERIE
DRAINAGE.

AN ABOVE NORMAL FLOOD POTENTIAL MEANS WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG WITH WATER LEVELS HAVING SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS IN SOME
AREAS.

FOR THE LONG-RANGE RIVER OUTLOOKS AND THE PROBABLITY OF EXCEEDING
FLOODSTAGE OR THE CHANCES OF FLOODING RELATIVE TO NORMAL AT SPECIFIC
FORECAST POINTS DURING THE NEXT 90 DAYS...REFER TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/OHRFC AND CLICK ON THE 90-DAY RIVER OUTLOOK ON THE
LEFT HAND SIDE OF THE PAGE. CLICK ON FLOOD CHC VS NORMAL TO VIEW THE
RISK OF FLOODING WITH RESPECT TO NORMAL.

FLOOD OUTLOOKS ARE ISSUED BI-WEEKLY BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DURING WINTER AND EARLY SPRING TO SUMMARIZE BASIN
HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS AND TO ASSESS THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINTER/SPRING FLOODING. THE OUTLOOKS ARE BASED ON CURRENT AND
FORECAST CONDITIONS DURING THE OUTLOOK PERIOD.

IN ADDITION...A 90-DAY WATER RESOURCE OUTLOOK IS ISSUED MONTHLY.

FACTORS CONSIDERED IN ASSESSING FLOOD POTENTIAL ARE (1) ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS (2) PAST PRECIPITATION (3) RECENT STREAMFLOWS AND
RESERVOIR LEVELS (4) SOIL MOISTURE (5) WATER CONTENT OF THE SNOW
PACK (6) ICE CONDITIONS ON THE RIVERS AND (7) FUTURE PRECIPITATION.

METEOROLOGICALLY...PRECIPITATION SINCE JANUARY 1, 2019 HAS AVERAGED
AT LEAST 2-3 TIMES ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE
ERIE DRAINAGE. A VERY ACTIVE SUBTROPICAL JET WITH A DEEP TROPICAL
CONNECTION FROM THE PACIFIC WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE OHIO
VALLEY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DURING THE 7-DAY PERIOD ENDING EARLY
NEXT WEEK...RAINFALL IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 4+ TO 8+ INCHES IN A
BAND ACROSS THE FOLLOWING WATERSHEDS:

CUMBERLAND...GREEN...KENTUCKY...LICKING...SANDY...KANAWHA...LITTLE
KANAWHA...NEW RIVER AND MONONGAHELA

THESE WATERSHEDS ARE AT RISK FOR MODERATE TO EVEN MAJOR IMPACTS.

NORTH OF THE EXCESSIVE RAINFALL...THERE IS ALSO HEAVY RAINS OF 2 TO
3+ INCHES PREDICTED FOR WATERSHEDS NORTH OF THE MAINSTEM INCLUDING
THESE TRIBUTARIES:

WHITES...LOWER WABASH...MIAMI...SCIOTO...MUSKINGUM AND ALLEGHENY

THESE BASINS WILL EXPERIENCE A LOT OF MINOR IMPACTS WITH SCATTERED
MODERATE IMPACTS.

HYDROLOGICALLY...STREAMFLOWS ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE TO MUCH ABOVE
NORMAL ACROSS ALL WATERSHEDS IN THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE
DRAINAGE.

...WINTER/SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK/SUMMARY...

ATMOSPHERIC TELECONNECTIONS/OSCILLATIONS HAVE A STRONG WET SIGNAL
FOR THE OHIO RIVER BASIN/LAKE ERIE DRAINAGE SUPPORTING A SIGNIFICANT
FLOOD POTENTIAL IN THE OHIO VALLEY.

$$ WHEELER


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