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000
FXUS66 KLOX 251029
AFDLOX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Los Angeles/Oxnard CA
329 AM PDT Thu Apr 25 2024

.SYNOPSIS...25/240 AM.

Strong onshore flow and a deep marine layer will keep temperatures
much cooler than normal across much of Southwest California
through Friday. Warmer weather is expected by the weekend into
early next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TDY-SAT)...25/317 AM.

The marine layer is 3300 ft deep. There is strong onshore flow to
the east and weak but increasing onshore flow to the north. Marine
layer stratus cover most of the area save for the Antelope Vly and
the SBA south coast (due to N to S offshore flow). A weak trof
passed over the area last evening and now brisk NW flow is moving
into and over the state. The marine layer is so deep and the
capping inversion so weak that reverse clearing is likely today.
N to NW flow will be increasing through the day and its possible
that this will create a little better clearing than fcst. NW to W
flow will bring near advisory wind gusts to the mtns and the
western Antelope Vly. Higher hgts will bring some warming to the
Central Coast, while north flow will bring noticeable warming to
the SBA south coast. Residual cool air and the strong onshore push
will team up to cool most of LA and VTA county. It will be another
cool day with max temps 6 to 12 degrees blo normal.

The north winds will increase today and advisory levels gusts will
develop in the early evening across the SW portion of SBA county
where a wind advisory is in effect from 6pm to 6am. Strong winds
will develop more slowly across the mtns and Antelope Vly and wind
advisories will likely be issued later in the day these areas. The
north flow will also bring upslope clouds and a slight chc of
showers to north slopes near the Kern County line. Low confidence
in the stratus forecast which may well be mixed out. Right now
betting on the the north winds to clear out most of VTA county and
the SBA south coast with cloudy conds across LA county and the
Central Coast.

Friday will be a breezy day as the NW flow reaches its maximum.
These winds will scour out the low clouds and will be a sunny day.
Advisory level gusts are likely for the Santa Ynez Mountains, VTA
mtns, northern I-5 corridor, and Antelope Valley. Look for 3 to 6
degrees of warming which will only make a small dent in the below
normal max temps.

A little inside slider will move down the CA/NV border Friday
night and will again bring a slight chc of N slopes showers to the
N slopes near the Kern county line. It will also reinforce the N
winds and advisory level northerly winds will likely continue
through dawn in the mtns and Antelope Vly with the strongest winds
focused through the I-5 corridor.

Saturday will see sunny skies and decreasing winds. 3 to 6 degrees
of warming will result from the offshore flow from the north, the
lack of marine layer, sunny skies and rising hgts.

.LONG TERM (SUN-WED)...25/326 AM.

Sunday and Monday will be very nice days with plenty of sunshine
and warming temps. All brought about by a weak ridge moving
overhead, weaker onshore flow to the east and continued offshore
flow from the north. Monday will likely be the warmest day of the
next 7 with highs in the 70s and lower 80s in the valleys and
upper 60s and 70s near the coast. These max temps will end up a
degree or 2 either side of normals.

Tuesday may have similar temps to Monday or it will cool some. It
all depends on how quickly the ridge breaks down and onshore flow
increases.

Troffing and increased onshore flow and a likely return of coastal
low clouds will ensure that Wednesday ends up about 4 degrees
cooler than Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...25/0645Z.

At 0505Z at KLAX, the marine layer was 5600 feet deep. The top of
the inversion was at 6700 feet with a temperature of 6 C.

High confidence in desert TAFs. Moderate confidence in remaining
TAFs. KSBA has a 30 percent chc of bkn025-035 cigs 11Z-18Z,
otherwise cigs will vary between BKN025 bkn035 through late
morning. There is a a30 percent chc that sites with BKN conds in
the TAF in the afternoon will see SCT conds.

KLAX...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs may dip as low as BKN025
but will likely (60 percent chc) remain between 035 and 045. There
is a 30 percent chc of SCT conds 20Z-03Z. No east wind component
is expected.

KBUR...Moderate confidence in TAF. Cigs will vary between BKN025
and BKN035 through 18Z. There is a 20 percent chc of SCT conds
20Z-03Z.

&&

.MARINE...24/1005 PM.

In the Outer Waters, current Small Craft Advisories (SCA) remain
on track for tonight. SCA conds are expected Thu morning thru
Sun. There is a 50-70% chance of gales starting Thu evening thru
Mon, with the highest chances for the southern zone (PZZ676).
Lower confidence in gales for the waters north of Point Sal on
Thursday afternoon/evening.

For the Inner Waters N of Pt. Sal, moderate to high confidence in
the forecast. SCA level winds are likely in the afternoon/evening
hours Thu-Sun. There is a 50% chance of gales Fri afternoon into
late Fri night, and a 40-60% chance of gales Saturday night.

In the Inner Waters S Pt Conception, moderate confidence. Current
Small Craft Advisories (SCA) remain on track for tonight,
especially in the Santa Barbara Channel where winds are
consistently gusting from 23-27 kts. SCA conds are likely in the
SBA Channel and the western portions south of Point Mugu during
the afternoon/eve hours Thursday. Strong SCA with possible gales
appear likely Friday and there is a 50-60% chance of gales
starting Fri morning into Sat. Lower confidence in winds over the
weekend, as winds could shift more northerly limiting the SCA
level and stronger winds to western portions of the Santa Barbara
Channel.

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...Wind Advisory in effect from 6 PM this evening to 6 AM PDT
      Friday for zones 349-351. (See LAXNPWLOX).
PZ...Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 3 PM
      PDT Friday for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through Friday
      evening for zones 645-670. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from noon today to 9 AM PDT
      Friday for zone 650. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday morning through late Friday
      night for zones 650-673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 3 PM this afternoon to 3
      AM PDT Friday for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Gale Watch in effect from Friday afternoon through late
      Friday night for zone 655. (See LAXMWWLOX).
     Small Craft Advisory in effect from 9 AM this morning to 9 AM
      PDT Friday for zones 673-676. (See LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Rorke
AVIATION...Rorke
MARINE...Phillips/DB/Schoenfeld
SYNOPSIS...JLD

weather.gov/losangeles

Experimental Graphical Hazardous Weather Outlook at:
https://www.weather.gov/erh/ghwo?wfo=lox